MLB daily notes: Fantasy rankings for Tuesday
— -- Big-name pitchers populate Tuesday's slate, but there are also a number of under-the-radar types with favorable matchups. Whether you're looking for pitching or hitting help, the daily notes are here to help you unearth some gems.
Pitching
Elite
It doesn't get much better than Jose Fernandez taking the Marlins Park hill against the light-hitting Atlanta Braves. To be fair, though, the Braves don't whiff much, checking in with a mark just below league average versus righties. However, with a 13.2 K/9, the Marlins right-hander will still record ample punchouts to be the top DFS cash anchor on the card.
Noah Syndergaard is in a similar scenario as he and the New York Mets welcome the Kansas City Royals to Citi Field for an interleague tilt. The Royals' attack is a little more potent than the Braves but will be devoid of their designated hitter, Kendrys Morales. This adds to Thor's punchout potential, rendering the righty an option for either cash or GPP action.
If you play in a seasonal league that doesn't count ERA (I know, just play along) then you're very happy with Corey Kluber. That said, Kluber owners can take heed; his actual ERA might be 4.23 but a 2.94 FIP and 3.32 xFIP say "hang in there." Your patience could be rewarded as soon as Tuesday night as the Cleveland Indians entertain the struggling Tampa Bay Rays at Progressive Field. Kluber is a great GPP play, facing a lineup that fans 25 percent of the time versus righties.
Johnny Cueto has emerged as one of the top cash DFS hurlers, as he's failed to toss at least seven innings in only three of his 14 outings. Couple that with a playable 7.9 K/9 and we have cash-game gold. Given the right-hander is essentially matchup-proof, a road date with the Pittsburgh Pirates will be a challenge. The Bucs sport an above-average weighted on base average (wOBA) when facing a right-hander. Aiding Cueto is the Pirates will task Wilfredo Boscan with keeping the Giants in check, yielding Cueto as a favorite despite the away contest.
Solid
If we're going to give Kluber a pass based on his expected ERA, then we need to point out the opposite is occurring with Marco Estrada, as the Toronto Blue Jays right-hander checks in with a 2.58 ERA, considerably better than his 4.04 FIP and 4.54 xFIP. As a fly-ball pitcher, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) should be below average, but a 0.188 mark on the heels of 0.216 is inexplicable, especially since his hard-hit, medium-hit and soft-hit distribution is nothing special. He has allowed very few line drives, which keeps the BABIP low, but to date, research does not support this being a repeatable skill. Perhaps there's a reason Estrada is able to out-pitch his peripherals that will be unearthed as we collect better data, or perhaps he's another example of a pitcher who's lucky until his luck runs out. Next up for Estrada is an interleague visit from the Arizona Diamondbacks. As a numbers guy, I think the right thing to do is suggest fading Estrada in DFS under the guise he's due a correction. However, the Snakes do afford him strikeout upside, so he's in play for a tournament.
Speaking of reversal of fortune, through May 31, Aaron Nola carried a 0.251 BABIP. In his three June starts, that leaped to 0.500, bringing the year-to-date mark to 0.297. Sometimes regression takes months, sometimes weeks. Nola's previous two efforts lasted a combined 6 2/3 frames, in essence what we expect from one game. The Philadelphia Phillies sophomore right-hander is in a good spot to get it going again as he'll square off with the Minnesota Twins in an interleague affair in Target Field. The hosts whiff at a 23 percent clip while Nola's improved K/9 sits at 9.9.
Let's take the glass-half-full approach. Since returning from the disabled list, Sonny Gray's control has significantly improved, as he has walked just three in 18 2/3rd innings. On the other hand, he's fanned only a dozen and was hit hard last time out, serving up a pair of dingers to the Texas Rangers. Now let's look for the silver lining. Gray's scant three wins and 5.43 ERA have harpooned his DFS price tag, making him an intriguing tourney option with the Milwaukee Brewers and their 26 percent strikeout clip against right-handers visiting O.co Coliseum.
Streamers
Just as you're ready to write off Hector Santiago, the Los Angeles Angels lefty goes out and throws a nice game, holding the Twins to one run with two hits over six stanzas. His date with the Houston Astros in Minute Maid Park is more challenging. But facing a squad with a 25 percent strikeout rate against southpaws puts Santiago in play if you need a boost in that department.
On the flip side, the Halos' offense isn't especially daunting, so using Astros righty Collin McHugh should be safe for ratios and a possible win.
It's going to be fun watching James Paxton the rest of the season as the light bulb has seemingly turned on for the Seattle Mariners lefty, as evidenced by 29 punchouts to only six free passes in his initial 22 frames since his June 1 debut. Taking on the Detroit Tigers in Comerica Park won't be a picnic, but how can you keep a 11.9 K/9 on the bench?
Jimmy Nelson has scuffled in June, allowing 14 earned runs in 13 innings this month. The Brewers right-hander is in a good spot to get things back on the right track as he'll take the hill in O.co Coliseum to face the light-hitting Oakland Athletics.
Avoid
Add Luis Perdomo and Wilfredo Boscan to the trio of auto-avoids. Perdomo gets the ball for the San Diego Padres in Camden Yards against the explosive Baltimore Orioles, while Boscan and the Pirates host the pesky San Francisco Giants in a PNC Park affair. Neither right-hander is set up to go deep into the contest and both are at risk for the limited innings they'll throw.
There's a plethora of household names populating the solid tier that just don't set up ideally for DFS play, such as Chris Sale, Adam Wainwright, Clay Buchholz and Justin Verlander. There's also some recognizable options for streaming, namely Blake Snell and Colby Lewis. If you have a question about any of these hurlers, or anything germane to Tuesday's docket, please feel free to post it in the comments or shoot a tweet to @ToddZola.
Hitting
Luis Perdomo has allowed seven homers in just 42 innings. That total has a great chance to climb even more as the Padres righty will take the hill in Camden Yards. Chris Davis is always in play against a soft righty, joined by fellow lefties Hyun Soo Kim, Pedro Alvarez and Ryan Flaherty, who'll be filling in as Manny Machado will still be serving his four-game suspension. Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo are in play if you want a contrarian option lacking the platoon edge.
While the majority of Patrick Corbin's 1.4 HR/9 is a result of a couple of early three-homer games, he has surrendered a long ball in four of his past five outings. The Blue Jays may be without Jose Bautista, but Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders and the recently returned Troy Tulowitzki are all capable of taking the Diamondbacks southpaw deep.
Many don't realize that the new Yankee Stadium actually plays neutral for runs despite favoring power. That said, expect a bunch of tallies as Chad Bettis and Ivan Nova are both vulnerable to big innings resulting from home runs. Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon will take aim at the short right-field porch from the left-handed batter's box, with Nolan Arenado being a threat from the right side. For the Bronx Bombers, table-setters Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner also run into a long ball now and again, with Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran being the major power threats.
Most likely to hit a home run: Ian Kennedy's HR/9 is a bloated 1.9. All of the Mets' hitters must be licking their chops, but none more than Curtis Granderson.
Most likely to steal a base: Jimmy Nelson is horrible at controlling the running game, so let's call upon Billy Burns to take advantage, and this time he is playing.
