Nets-to-Celtics first-rounder tops ranking of every traded 2016 draft pick
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Despite a tendency these days for teams to guard their own stash of picks, there are several traded picks that might end up haunting teams.
Using pick projections from ESPN's Basketball Power Index and valuing them based on the the trade value chart for draft picks I introduced last June, let's rank traded selections from most to least valuable.
1. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn Nets): 2936 points
There are few 2016 picks more valuable than Brooklyn's, traded or otherwise.
When the Nets moved this unprotected pick (and several other picks!) to Boston for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry, little did they realize Brooklyn would become nearly the NBA's worst team within three seasons.
The Nets have underachieved so far, even compared to their already low preseason expectations, and their minus-7.7 differential is the league's third-worst. As a result, BPI gives only the Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers better chances at landing the top overall pick and suggests Brooklyn is most likely to land the fourth pick.
A note of caution to Celtics fans drooling about the possibility of drafting Ben Simmons or Skal Labissiere: One factor BPI can't take into account is motivation, and other teams will have more incentive than the Nets to shut players down and lose games late in the season. Boston can't count on Brooklyn tanking as a team with its own pick might -- like, say, the 1996-97 and 2006-07 Celtics.
2. Toronto Raptors (from New York Knicks after swap): 1952 points
The other New York team also made a foolish trade involving its draft pick, giving up this gem as part of the trade for Andrea Bargnani.
At the time, the Knicks had just won 54 games and reached the second round of the playoffs. So they surely expected this selection -- the worse of their pick and the Denver Nuggets' -- to be outside the lottery. (Denver got involved when New York included a 2016 pick swap among the huge cache of assets it sent the Nuggets for Carmelo Anthony.)
There's still a chance this isn't a lottery pick, with New York off to a solid 6-6 start. But BPI gives just a 14.2 percent chance of New York or Denver (or both) making the playoffs, so it's more likely the Raptors will be getting a top-10 pick (a 44 percent chance). The average value is somewhere between the 10th and 11th choices.
3. Boston Celtics (from Dallas Mavericks): 1552 points
This pick, from the infamous Rajon Rondo trade late in 2014, is top-7 protected. Though the Mavericks' surprising 8-4 record and promising health means Boston is unlikely to get a top-10 pick, it also almost certainly ensures the pick will convey this season.
There is now a 97 percent chance Boston gets the pick, but it's unlikely to be in the lottery. BPI has Boston (via Dallas) picking somewhere around 15th or 16th on average.
4. Philadelphia 76ers (from Miami Heat): 1349 points
The 76ers just missed out on getting this pick last season because it was (and remains) top-10 protected. The Heat lost just enough after being eliminated from the playoffs to keep the pick.
Instead of the 11th pick that Philly fans dreamed of last year, now it looks as if the Sixers will be getting a later selection. On average, BPI projects this pick 20th or 21st. That would still be good value for trading Thaddeus Young to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the summer of 2014, but it's no longer the huge coup it appeared to be a year ago.
By the way, believe it or not, this pick was originally part of what the Cleveland Cavaliers received in 2010 for trading LeBron James to Miami after a "Decision" that is still resonating in Philadelphia and other cities.
5. Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers): 1311 points
This might be the most talked-about and controversial traded pick of all.
The Lakers, in building what was to be their next dynasty, moved it to Phoenix -- with minimal protection -- along with several other draft picks in exchange for Steve Nash. Last February, the Suns gave it up in a three-way trade with Milwaukee and Philadelphia in exchange for Brandon Knight, apparently believing the Lakers would improve so much in 2015-16 that the pick wouldn't be worth much. Milwaukee reportedly could've accepted the draft pick but instead shipped it to the Sixers for 2013-14 rookie of the year Michael Carter-Williams.
So now Philadelphia holds the rights to a potential top-five pick. Before Sixers fans get alarmed at the relatively low value, remember that we're ranking picks by their value for the 2016 draft. The pick has great value beyond 2016 because it could still be a high pick in either 2017 or 2018.
With the Lakers mired in the Western Conference cellar, their odds of keeping the pick by having it land in the top three are now nearly 50-50, according to BPI. But the most likely single outcome is the Lakers finishing with the fourth pick and sending it to Philadelphia, which happens in 23 percent of simulations.
If the Lakers keep the pick in 2016, it rolls over with the same top-three protection in 2017 but none whatsoever in 2018, so the suspense will build all over again.
6. Philadelphia 76ers (from Oklahoma City Thunder): 1117 points
The 76ers could have three additional first-round picks via trade (in addition to their own pick), and this is the one they're most likely to get.
In fact, since the Thunder would have to finish as the worst playoff team or in the lottery to keep their pick, BPI gives Philadelphia a 100 percent chance of getting a pick, with it most likely to fall around 26th or 27th.
This pick was originally traded to Cleveland for Dion Waiters, sent to Denver for Timofey Mozgov and finally routed to the 76ers in exchange for taking JaVale McGee's contract off the Nuggets' books.
7. Phoenix Suns (from Cleveland Cavaliers): 1094 points
This pick too could have gone to the Celtics, who swapped it to the Suns in exchange for Isaiah Thomas at last year's trade deadline. Phoenix is now the proud owner of a pick most likely to end up 27th.
8. Denver Nuggets (from Houston Rockets): 730 points
Houston's unexpected struggles have been a mixed blessing for the Nuggets, who acquired a lottery-protected first-round pick from the Rockets in the Ty Lawson trade.
If Denver gets this pick, it will probably fall in the teens, which is surely better than the Nuggets were thinking over the summer. But if the Rockets miss the playoffs, this pick converts into a 2017 second-round pick, which would be far less valuable. So Denver should actually be hoping for Houston to turn things around under interim head coach J.B. Bickerstaff -- just not too much.
9. Denver Nuggets (from Memphis Grizzlies): 379 points
Meanwhile, the Nuggets probably want the Grizzlies to fall out of the playoffs. Memphis' pick is protected if it lands in the top five or the Grizzlies make the postseason.
The reverse protection disappears next year, when Denver gets the pick unless it's in the top five, but the Nuggets might not want to wait and hope Memphis falls off due to age.
10. Boston Celtics (from Minnesota Timberwolves): 316 points
The Celtics presumably have not been counting on getting this pick, which could be their fourth in the first round to go along with what will probably be the 31st overall pick (Philadelphia's second-round selection). Top-12 protection probably will allow the Timberwolves to keep the pick (and instead send Boston two second-round picks).
However, Minnesota's fast start means there's a small chance (20 percent, per BPI) of Boston landing the Wolves' first-round pick.
11. Chicago Bulls (from Sacramento Kings): 221 points
Because the Kings have been so bad for so long, they've held on to this pick (originally dealt to Cleveland in the Omri Casspi- J.J. Hickson trade) for four seasons. They'll have to finish outside the top 10 either this season or next for the Bulls to see any return, and BPI sees that as unlikely this season (13 percent of simulations).
12. Denver Nuggets (option to swap with New York Knicks): 126 points
This is second of three traded picks that has a shot of being No. 1 in the draft.
The Nuggets' option to swap with the Knicks via the Anthony trade looked a lot more valuable entering the season. Now, New York is likely to pick after Denver unless it "wins" a top-three pick in the lottery. So my trade chart values the swap option only as much as the 59th overall pick.
13. Philadelphia 76ers (option to swap with Sacramento Kings): 111 points
Something similar is true of the Sixers' right to swap with the Kings, acquired in this summer's trade that also sent Nik Stauskas to Philadelphia. This is the third of the traded picks that could be a lottery winner.
The 76ers get the chance to pool their odds of the No. 1 pick (almost 25 percent per BPI, which sees Philadelphia as a near-lock for the league's worst record) with Sacramento's (seven percent) -- in other words, the Sixers get both their own chances of winning the lottery and Sacramento's chances.
However, even if Philadelphia chooses to swap, they'll probably be sending a valuable top-four pick to the Kings in return.
14. Denver Nuggets (from Portland Trail Blazers): 48 points
Any hopes the Nuggets had of getting this lottery-protected pick, acquired from Portland for Arron Afflalo, probably have been dashed by the Blazers' seven-game losing streak. BPI gives Portland a three percent chance of making the playoffs.
15. Philadelphia 76ers (option to swap with Golden State Warriors): 0 points
As part of the Carl Landry- Jason Thompson trade this summer, the Sixers included the right to exchange with the Warriors for either the Heat or Thunder picks. Alas, that would require Golden State not to finish with the league's best record, which now looks like such a long shot this option has zero estimated value.
