NFL executives make MVP picks
— -- The NFL MVP race is shaping up to be a fun one.
Matt Ryan has 23 touchdown passes and only four interceptions, and the Falcons are rolling. Rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have led the Cowboys to a 7-1 start. Tom Brady hasn't thrown an interception since returning from suspension, and the Patriots are the league's best team. Then there are a few dark horses who are having fantastic seasons and could jump to the top of the list.
We checked in with five NFL personnel executives to get their thoughts on?which player?would get their MVP vote right now and which player?was most likely to take home the award by the end of the season.
The results were fascinating, and nine candidates emerged, according to the executives I polled. Here they are -- in order from most likely to win MVP to least likely -- with execs' quotes for each player:
1. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Why he's an MVP candidate: With Tom Brady missing four games, Ryan was the clear MVP of the first half of the season, according to the execs.?He's directing the league's highest-scoring offense (33.9 points per game)?and is on pace for a 5,300-yard passing season. After a rough first year with offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan in 2015?-- Ryan threw 16 interceptions, and the Falcons went 8-8 -- their two minds are in sync. Ryan is getting more no-huddle type plays. The offense has been spectacular.
What execs are saying:
- "What I like with Matt Ryan this year is his consistency. He's been consistently good since the first game of the season."
- "He's moving the football as well as anyone."
- "You have to consider Matt the first-half MVP. His numbers are too good."
What he has to do to win: Ryan's biggest challenge is to finish the season like he has started, as the Falcons are on top of the NFC South. He can't revert to previous form and throw too many picks. The toughest thing for Ryan might be holding off the next player on the list.
2. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
Why he's an MVP candidate: Since the suspension, Brady is playing some of his best football ever, which is amazing at the age of 39. He's completing 73.1 percent of his passes, and he leads the league -- by far -- in Total QBR. His yards per attempt are a staggering 9.8. His three-touchdowns-per-game average would translate to 48 in a 16-game season. Oh, and he hasn't thrown a pick.
What execs are saying:
- "It's Matt Ryan and Tom Brady for the top spots. At the end of the year, Brady might top Ryan, and he probably will. Both are playing at an incredible level."
What he has to do to win: Stay healthy. It seems inevitable that the Patriots will lock up the AFC's No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the playoffs. If that happens, Brady might top Ryan.
3. Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
Why he's an MVP candidate: Stafford has been the king of the comeback and has the Lions in position to win the NFC North. Stafford has five?fourth-quarter comeback wins, which is incredible. Thanks in part to the play calling of offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, Stafford is on pace for a 4,219-yard, 32-touchdown season. With three home games within the division coming up soon, Stafford has a chance to have his best season ever.
What execs are saying:
- "I don't know if it's sustainable to be trailing in the fourth quarter of every game and being able to come back, but he's been able to do that and win five games."
- "Ever since Jim Bob Cooter has taken over as offensive coordinator, Stafford has gotten better and better. It's a great combination."
- "Maybe it's me, but he'd be close to MVP, and?I still get concerned when he throws a pick."
What he has to do to win: Win the NFC North. It might be hard to top Ryan and Brady on statistics only. The better he plays, the more he sets himself up for getting the richest quarterback contract in NFL history. He will be 30 when he becomes a free agent after the 2017 season.
4. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Why he's an MVP candidate: If you include degree of difficulty, Wilson might run away with?it. He opened the season with a high ankle sprain, which should have knocked him out for four to six weeks. Then he suffered an MCL injury against the 49ers, which should have sidelined him for four weeks. Then he had a pectoral injury. Wilson barely missed practice despite those injuries, and he's still on pace for a 4,188-yard passing season. Wilson hasn't been able to run the ball because of those injuries, but he's still completing 66.7 percent of his passes. And though his touchdowns are?down, the Seahawks have the?second-best record in the NFC (5-2-1).
What execs are saying:
- "He's so dang injured, yet what he keeps doing is amazing. I honestly don't know how he does it with the injuries."
- "You have to really respect his dedication, but there aren't that many players who would play as much or as well with the injuries he's endured."
- "It wouldn't surprise me as he gets healthier that he gets hot in the second half of the season, like he did last year, when he was one of the best pocket passers in the game."
What he has to do to win: Get healthy. He has become a better quarterback with things he learned while playing with limitations and improving as a pocket passer. If the Seahawks end up with a No. 1 seed and Wilson gets hot down the stretch, he could move up?this list quickly.
5. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
Why he's an MVP candidate: The 0-3 start has allowed Brees to work under the radar. His numbers are really incredible. He's completing 69.7 percent of his passes?and is on pace for 5,378 yards and 42 touchdown passes. He has thrown only five interceptions. Brees and the Saints' offense average 30.3 points per?game, while the New Orleans defense gives up 29.8 points per game.
What execs are saying:
- "All you have to do is look at his stats and his yards per game and you have to be amazed at what he's doing. He's getting over 70 plays a game and more than 6 yards per play. He should be among the top two in the MVP race."
- "It's just a shame he doesn't have a better defense to help him out."
What he has to do to win: It's not out of the question the 4-4 Saints catch the 6-3 Falcons. New Orleans is only one loss behind Atlanta. If the Saints continue their current run and edge out the Falcons for the division title, Brees could jump Ryan.?Brady still would stand in his way, though.
6. Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders
Why he's an MVP candidate: Thanks to Carr and the receiving tandem of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, the 7-2 Raiders are leading the AFC West and have become one of the most entertaining teams in football. Carr has a fearless style similar to that of Brett Favre. Carr is a gunslinger. He is completing 66.1 percent of his throws and has 17 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. He has really improved in his third year in the league.
What execs are saying:
- "I'm telling you this, this guy is really becoming special. Here's the shocking thing: Look at his accuracy. When I see him throw, it reminds me of Tom Brady."
- "He's really incredible when you think of it. He gets better and better by the game. I like where his career is heading."
What he has to do to win: It would probably take the Raiders getting the No. 1 seed over the Patriots for Carr to be MVP. Nevertheless, the exposure Carr is getting with the Raiders' success is setting himself up to be considered an elite quarterback and being a yearly candidate for MVP.
7. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Why he's an MVP candidate:?Most people projected Elliott to be offensive rookie of the year,?but he has?exceeded expectations. He's going to challenge for the greatest rookie running back season in NFL history. (Eric Dickerson rushed for?1,808 yards for the Rams in 1983.) Elliott is on pace for 1,782 yards. He's averaging 5.0 yards per carry. The Cowboys rode DeMarco Murray into the playoffs in 2014, but they might go further this season. They have the best record in the NFC at 7-1.
What execs are saying:
- "I honestly thought he was the most talented back to come into the NFL in a long time. He had star written over him coming out of college."
- "The only thing holding Elliott and Dak Prescott?back from being MVPs is that they are rookies, and rookies don't get the same recognition as veterans."
- "He's a complete back. He can catch the ball and he can run well. You figured from the beginning he was going to have a great rookie season."
What he has to do to win: If he can get over 1,800 yards and the Cowboys get 12 or more wins, he's going to be in the discussion.
8.? Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Why he's an MVP candidate:?When? Tony Romo is healthy, he's a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, but Prescott has been so good that Romo has become an afterthought. Many thought the Cowboys would have been lucky to be at .500 while Romo was out. Prescott is having one of the four best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history. He's on pace for 4,040 passing yards, and he has 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions, while completing 66.5 percent of his passes. Plus, his ability as a running threat opens up more holes for Elliott. The combination of Elliott and Prescott has allowed the Cowboys to possess the ball for more than 32 minutes a game.
What execs are saying:
- "Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott should be entered into the MVP race as a pair. Both work so well together."
- "What I like about what Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott are doing is that it is allowing [defensive coordinator] Rod Marinelli to be the assistant coach of the year. Dak is getting the possession time that keeps the defense off the field. When the defense is on the field, the players are fresh, and Marinelli can get them to play at a high level."
What he has to do to win: Elliott's success might top Prescott's chances of getting MVP votes. But finishing on a 12-plus-win team with more than 4,000 yards is going to draw some votes.
9. David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Why he's an MVP candidate: The Cardinals' 3-4-1 starts puts Johnson toward the bottom of the MVP list, but his numbers make him worthy. He's accounting for 37 percent of the Arizona offense. Johnson is on pace for 1,400 rushing yards and 70 catches. He has rushed for eight touchdowns.
What execs are saying:
- "David Johnson has given Bruce Arians the ability to go to a running offense. Arians likes to air it out. When teams pressure Carson Palmer, Arians can go to the running game or get some passes off to Johnson and cause problems.''
What he has to do to win: The Cardinals would need to win seven of their last eight games and make the playoffs to give Johnson?a shot.
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