Nuggets with Millsap are major playoff contenders in the West

— -- Where do the? Denver Nuggets fit into the Western Conference's new playoff hierarchy?

On Sunday night, the Nuggets landed the best player to change teams so far via free agency, signing All-Star power forward Paul Millsap away from the Atlanta Hawks?with a three-year, $90 million contract. Adding Millsap to a budding core of young talent that got Denver within a win of the postseason suddenly creates another contender in a conference overflowing with them.

Just how good can the Nuggets expect to be next season after adding Millsap? Let's take a look.

Millsap slowing, but still valuable

Because he didn't debut as an All-Star until age 29, eight years into his NBA career, Millsap might feel a little younger than he really is. He'll turn 33 next season and be 35 by the end of his contract, presuming Denver picks up a team option for 2019-20 ( reported by Matt Moore of CBSSports.com).

As you might surmise from his belated arrival as an All-Star, Millsap already has peaked after the typical NBA norm. He's just two years removed from posting a career-high 14.2 wins above replacement player during the 2015-16 season. Millsap did slip to 7.1 WARP last year, his lowest total since 2009-10, but that might not give him enough credit for his important role in the Hawks' defense, which ranked fourth in the league on a per-possession basis.

ESPN's real plus-minus rated Millsap's defensive impact at 3.4 points per 100 possessions better than league average, putting him among the top 15 defenders in the league. As a result, Millsap also ranked in the top 15 in RPM overall.

That defense makes Millsap an ideal fit alongside Denver center? Nikola Jokic, an extraordinarily skilled offensive player for his position but a poor rim protector. Millsap can supply secondary help defense as an above-average shot-blocker for a power forward, and he has shown more than enough mobility to keep up with stretch 4s on the perimeter. Millsap should be a huge upgrade to a Nuggets defense that ranked 29th in defensive rating, ahead of only the lowly? Los Angeles Lakers.

Offensively, I'd expect Millsap and Jokic to form a versatile combination along the lines of Millsap's earlier partnership with? Al Horford?in Atlanta. Both can score inside against smaller defenders or stretch the floor all the way to the 3-point line. While Millsap has been a below-average 3-point shooter over the past two seasons (31.9 percent in 2015-16 and 31.1 percent last season), his volume of attempts (3.5 per game last season) and track record as a league-average 3-point shooter the previous two years give him more gravitational pull on defenders than his accuracy might suggest.

Because of his strong RPM and track record of All-Star production, my multiyear projections estimate Millsap's value at about $96 million over the next three seasons, almost identical to what he'll make. The team option protects Denver against Millsap declining more rapidly than expected, and it gives the Nuggets more flexibility should their payroll grow more quickly than anticipated.

As it is, Denver could be looking at dodging the tax in 2018-19 if the front office decides to decline Jokic's $1.6 million team option to be able to match any offer to him as a restricted free agent. If Jokic plays out his deal, he would become an unrestricted free agent, and the Millsap contract will make it difficult for the Nuggets to create the cap space necessary to renegotiate Jokic's contract and extend it during the summer of 2018.

Shooting guard? Gary Harris?also is looking at a big raise a year from now, when he will be a restricted free agent, unless he agrees to an extension before the Oct. 31 deadline for players entering the final year of their rookie contracts. If Harris and Jokic both get max money, Denver would be about $12 million over the projected tax line with all the team's other options picked up. Either way, expect the Nuggets to try to trade power forward? Kenneth Faried, who is expendable with Millsap's arrival and due to make $13.8 million in 2018-19 on an expiring contract.

Projecting Denver for 2017-18

When considering how good the Nuggets can be next season, start with this: According to NBA.com/Stats, Denver -- not the? Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets or Cleveland Cavaliers?-- had the league's best offensive rating after Jokic began starting at center on Dec. 15. The Nuggets also were dead last in defense from that point onward, which helps explain the desire to add Millsap.

Granted, that league-best offense also included small forward Danilo Gallinari, who's likely lost as part of the cost of signing Millsap. To be able to maintain Gallinari's cap hold and sign Millsap, Denver would have to get off Faried's salary now and renounce the rights to restricted free agent Mason Plumlee.?(It's possible that trading Faried could be sufficient, if Gallinari were to sign a deal starting at less than his $22.6 million cap hold.) Realistically, Gallinari is probably gone, given the long-term money the Nuggets now have committed.

Replacing Gallinari with reserve forward? Wilson Chandler?would allow Denver to upgrade two spots defensively and give it above-average defenders at three positions (Harris is the other). While getting to league average defensively might not be realistic, the Nuggets could target finishing somewhere around 20th on a per-possession basis. If Denver maintains a top-five offense, that combination sounds shockingly similar to last year's Rockets, who finished second in offensive rating and 18th in defensive rating and won 55 games.

Unfortunately for the Nuggets, the Western Conference is now ridiculously loaded. They're behind the Warriors, Rockets and? San Antonio Spurs in the pecking order, but I'd probably put them along with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder in the next tier of contenders. (The Utah Jazz join this group, and probably ascend to the top of it, if they can re-sign Gordon Hayward.)

Because of the conference imbalance and this summer's talent migration to the West, signing Millsap might not translate to a deep playoff run for Denver. Given the team hasn't made the playoffs since firing George Karl and losing Masai Ujiri after the 2012-13 season -- and hasn't won a playoff series since reaching the Western Conference finals in 2009 -- that's OK. Adding Millsap makes the Nuggets' present brighter without really compromising their future, and that's a win.