Why the Panthers are the best trade fit for Eric Staal
— -- Despite the tight race in the Metropolitan Division, nobody will be surprised if Carolina Hurricanes captain Eric Staal is moved before the Feb. 29 NHL trade deadline. If so, the Florida Panthers would be the right destination.
The Hurricanes need to make some changes. After signing Staal to a huge seven-year, $57.75 million contract on Sept. 11, 2008, the team enjoyed an immediate trip to the 2008-09 Eastern Conference finals, followed by six consecutive absences from the playoffs.
Given that the 31-year-old pending free agent could ask for a new deal of upwards of $9 million per season, it makes sense for general manager Ron Francis to shop him around regardless of whether the team remains in the playoff race.
This could be the perfect opportunity for a Stanley Cup dark horse to add some scoring depth down the middle. Staal is big and experienced, capable of responsible defensive play, wins faceoffs, contributes in the shootout and is one of Carolina's strongest possession-driving players. That's just the type of player the Florida Panthers could be looking for.
Driving possession
Staal is one of Carolina's better possession-driving players, and it's that skill, above all others, that other teams will be pursuing.
As the chart below (with Staal represented by the red dot) demonstrates, Staal's even-strength scoring rate (on the vertical axis) is quite typical of the league's scoring-line centers -- and possibly even a little on the low side. In fairness, his scoring will increase with virtually any new set of wingers. On the other hand, his relative Corsi (on the horizontal axis) -- the team's shot-based plus/minus when he's on the ice relative to when he's not -- is in the league's top tier and trails behind only Joe Thornton of the San Jose Sharks and Pavel Datsyuk of the Detroit Red Wings to any significant extent. That would make Staal an upgrade for about a third of the league's teams, including several who may be in contention for a playoff spot by the Feb. 29 trade deadline.
So why Florida? The Panthers rank 24th in shot-based puck possession metrics, and they are remaining competitive mostly because of hot goaltending from Roberto Luongo. As the team's four straight losses have shown, they need someone who can immediately tilt the ice back in their favor possession-wise, and who represents a credible scoring threat both at even strength and on the power play.
While he would improve virtually any NHL team's possession numbers, Staal can also boost the scoring in several cities. Among the playoff contenders as of Jan. 20, his scoring rate of 1.71 even-strength points per 60 minutes is slightly higher than Montreal's David Desharnais (1.69), Minnesota's Mikael Granlund (1.66) and Florida's Aleksander Barkov (1.63).
As was discovered in the recent hunt for Ryan Johansen's ideal destination, Montreal already has reasonable depth down the middle with Desharnais, Tomas Plekanec and Alex Galchenyuk, and it doesn't need another body down the middle. As for the Wild, they have very little available cap space for next season, so it doesn't make sense for GM Chuck Fletcher to acquire a rental player that he couldn't possibly keep.
That leaves Florida as the ideal destination for Staal. The Panthers are one of the league's weakest teams down the middle, could use more scoring and possession-driving play on the scoring line, have plenty of cap space for next season and are a playoff-bound team that shouldn't wait for the summer to make improvements. Not only that, but Panthers GM Dale Tallon has a history of being quite active on the trade front.
What Carolina needs
The good news for Tallon is that Carolina has many needs. In fact, it's easier to list where the Hurricanes are strong: A great No. 1 defenseman in Justin Faulk, a solid shutdown center in Jordan Staal and good organizational depth.
Carolina's most serious problem is the team's long-standing need for reliable goaltending. The team's starter is another high-priced pending free agent who will be shopped around, Cam Ward. He is backed up by Eddie Lack, who was extended through 2017-18, but has been a disappointment.
The Hurricanes could also use some scoring up front. Staal is the team's only forward who scored 20 goals or 40 points last season, and one of six pending unrestricted free agent forwards in total. However, there really isn't anyone who Tallon would offer up on either of these fronts.
That's why Tallon's best bet is to construct a trade proposal around 24-year-old (and pending restricted free agent) defenseman Erik Gudbranson. Beyond Faulk, Carolina's blue line is composed of prospects and two veterans in their mid-30s; one of those vets is also going to be a free agent this summer, John-Michael Liles. Gudbranson would bring 291 games of NHL experience, could immediately anchor a strong defensive pairing, and is young enough to still realize the tremendous potential that made him the third overall selection in the 2010 draft.
What should happen
Considering the possession-driving play and secondary scoring Staal provides, it makes the most sense for him to be traded to a team like Florida, who is weak down the middle, has plenty of cap space and needs the help right now, rather than in the summer.
In exchange, Gudbranson is the type of player who Francis should be interested in receiving. While a reliable goalie and/or some secondary scoring would be even better, he shouldn't ignore the value of having a big, defensive presence on the blue line who still has the potential to become a solid top-four defenseman for many years to come -- and who is effectively under team control for another couple of seasons for cheaper than a player he'd find on the unrestricted free-agent pile.
Granted, this analysis is highly speculative. After all, Staal has a no-move clause in his contract, and he wouldn't appreciate being separated from his brother Jordan. On the other side, this analysis also ignored all the intangibles that a natural leader and four-time All-Star with both an Olympic gold medal and a Stanley Cup ring would bring to a team like Florida -- especially alongside equally decorated veterans like Jaromir Jagr and Roberto Luongo. Add it all up, and the potential of this kind of trade could far exceed what can be captured on a spreadsheet.
