Past can offer committee lessons

ByHEATHER DINICH
August 14, 2014, 11:53 AM

— -- No matter how you look at it -- with your own eyes or through a computer forecast -- the College Football Playoff's selection committee is going to have one of the most difficult, scrutinized jobs in sports this fall. The 13-member committee will choose the top four teams in the country using a truly subjective vote. To better understand some of the issues the committee might face in the future, ESPN.com looked to the past.

This is what the brackets might have looked like every year since 2004. ESPN.com's Mark Schlabach selected teams based on the eye test, and projecting for the computer was ESPN's Championship Drive Ratings, which evaluated teams based on how difficult it would be for an average Football Bowl Subdivision team to achieve their record given their schedule and accounts for how well teams controlled games throughout the season.

Knowing that the selection committee will weigh factors such as strength of schedule, head-to-head results and conference championships, each bracket was analyzed to see what challenges would have been presented to the committee and how it might have addressed them. Of course, in most years, the pool of qualified teams went deeper than four, and choosing No. 4 might just be the committee's biggest task. The definition of "best team" will likely differ for each committee member. Will an undefeated Boise State team ever unseat a one-loss team from a Power Five conference? Or will history repeat itself, even in a new era? A look back foreshadows more questions are in store.