Player Profiles: Projecting Durant, Steph, Klay and the Warriors
— -- Go to: Starters | Reserves
How will the Warriors' stars do in 2016-17?
Here are our player scouting reports and analysis for the Golden State Warriors.
Projected starters
Stephen Curry
Position: Guard
Experience: 7 years
Age: 28
Scouting report
+ Earned NBA's first unanimous MVP with historic offensive season
+ Accurate shooter from virtually any distance off the dribble or the catch
+ Underrated defender limited in the playoffs by aftereffects of sprained MCL
Analysis
Curry enjoyed an unprecedented offensive regular season. By taking his 3-point output from historic to off-the-charts, Curry managed to dramatically increase both his usage (from 28.9 percent of the Warriors' plays to 32.6 percent, the NBA's second-highest mark) and his true shooting percentage (from .638 to .669, tops in the league) -- defying the typical tradeoff between usage and efficiency. Curry's reward for his role in Golden State's 73-9 regular season was becoming the first player in league history to unanimously win MVP.
Come the postseason, however, Curry's luck turned. So did his ankle in the Warriors' playoff opener against the Houston Rockets, and when he came back during Game 4 of the series, Curry slipped on a wet spot and suffered a sprained MCL that kept him out two weeks. In his return, Curry scored a record 17 points in overtime to beat the Portland Trail Blazers, but he wasn't the same player. In particular, his ability to move laterally was compromised, making it difficult for Curry to beat bigger defenders off the dribble. So while he got hot at times, including the deciding Game 7 of the Western Conference finals, Curry wasn't close to his MVP self as Golden State lost the NBA Finals in seven games to the Cleveland Cavaliers after leading 3-1.
Back healthy after sitting out of the Olympics to rest and rehab, Curry must now battle the effects of regression to the mean. He has overcome them in the past, most notably last season, when he finished fourth in the voting for Most Improved Player the year after winning MVP. Curry's increased use of the 3-point shot has seen to that. After steadily increasing his 3-point attempts from 4.9 per 36 minutes in 2010-11 to 8.9 in 2014-15, Curry jumped all the way to 11.8 last season while making them at a 45.4 percent clip, allowing him to become the first player ever to make 400 3-pointers. Nobody else has even made 300.
Curry's ability to shoot accurately off the dribble from far beyond the 3-point line forces defenses to trap him -- setting up four-on-three opportunities for his teammates -- or overplay him and surrender the drive. As important as Curry's shooting is, so too is his tight ballhandling, which has enabled him to get off the 3 even when defenders are playing up on him.
The MCL injury also affected Curry defensively; he has developed into a quality defender despite what Russell Westbrook might (or might not) think. Curry is an active help defender -- he led the league in steals per game, though not a per-play basis -- who can hold his own when crossmatched, and he also contributes on the defensive glass.
Klay Thompson
Position: Guard
Experience: 5 years
Age: 26
Scouting report
+ Phenomenal outside shooter with perhaps NBA's quickest release
+ Has developed ability to make plays off the dribble
+ Quality one-on-one defender, particularly against smaller foes
Analysis
The gift and the curse for Thompson is that he's perhaps the world's second-best shooter ... but also second in his own backcourt. Last season, Thompson stepped out of his point guard's giant shadow by improving his ability to create his own offense and becoming less dependent on Curry. His shooting keyed the Warriors' series-saving comeback in Game 6 of the Western Conference finals at Oklahoma City.
While Curry might be the slightly more accurate 3-point shooter, and is certainly better off the dribble, Thompson has the quicker release. And Thompson's size makes it difficult to slow him down when he gets going. Thompson's 276 triples were the most ever by a player besides Curry. Thompson also shot better than ever before from inside the arc, making a career-high 45.5 percent of his 2-point jumpers from beyond 16 feet ( per Basketball-Reference.com) while at the same time taking fewer of those lower-value shots.
As recently as 2014-15, Thompson was far more effective when sharing the court with Curry. According to NBA.com/Stats research, his true shooting percentage dropped from .603 with Curry to .544 without him. That wasn't the case last season, when Thompson learned to thrive as a leading option on offense. Despite bumping his usage rate to 30.1 percent of Golden State's plays with Curry on the bench, Thompson still posted robust .588 true shooting, allowing him to carry the Warriors during Curry's injury and become an offensive leader of bench-heavy units.
Despite Curry's improvement, Thompson will always be the better Golden State guard defensively. He has quick feet for his size and matches up well on point guards, something the Warriors typically go to later in games and series. Thompson also proved surprisingly adept at defending LeBron James in the NBA Finals when the Cavaliers tried to use Golden State's switches to create a mismatch.
Kevin Durant
Position: Forward
Experience: 9 years
Age: 27
Scouting report
+ Giant wing player with the ability to get off his shot over any defender
+ Skilled at making difficult shots but will have to limit those attempts
+ Terrifying defensive presence when fully engaged
Analysis
There's little historical track record for the move Durant made this summer, leaving the Thunder to sign with the Warriors as an unrestricted free agent. While Golden State's collection of stars has drawn inevitable comparisons to the Miami Heat's big three, that was a team built from scratch. In this case, Durant is joining a largely intact Golden State core. As a result, the former MVP will likely have to adapt more to his new team than the other way around.
The way the Warriors move the basketball figures to be the biggest adjustment for Durant. According to SportVU tracking data on NBA.com/Stats, he held the ball an average of 3.1 seconds per touch last season, more than any Golden State player besides Curry (5.5). Draymond Green, at 2.6 seconds per touch, was second on the Warriors, and incumbent small forward Harrison Barnes averaged just 1.2 seconds per touch.
In part, that reflects Durant running the Oklahoma City offense as a pseudo-point guard when Russell Westbrook was on the bench. However, it also shows his desire to hold the ball and survey the defense, something at odds with how Golden State usually plays. Like LaMarcus Aldridge joining the San Antonio Spurs last season, Durant will have to become comfortable making quicker decisions whether to shoot, attack or move the ball.
Of course, the Warriors' offense will feature Durant's skills, and he gives them another bailout option late in the clock. Nobody in the league is better at hitting difficult shots than Durant, who can get off a shot any time he wants thanks to his size (he's surely bigger than his listed 6-foot-9) and long arms. That can compel Durant to settle instead of looking for better shots, but he's also a gifted playmaker who will fill Green's role as a creator off the pick-and-roll at times.
Playing against Golden State in the conference finals, Durant made good on his immense defensive potential. Combining the size of a power forward (or small center) with the mobility of a wing allows Durant to cover ground quickly as a help defender and block passing lanes. He has been reluctant in the past to play extended minutes at the 4, but surely the Warriors' best lineups will feature Durant in the role Barnes played in the Death Lineup. KD is an upgrade as a defensive rebounder and rim protector.
Draymond Green
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
Age: 26
Scouting report
+ Emotional leader of Warriors whose own emotions sometimes run too hot
+ Playmaking and ability to stretch defense from frontcourt unlock teammates' skills
+ Plays far bigger than his size defensively, setting up Death Lineup
Analysis
Golden State wouldn't have reached a championship, a 73-9 record, and back-to-back Finals without Green's fiery leadership. His passion fueled a rise from second-round pick to one of the league's top 10 players.
Yet Green can go too far, and the debate about whether his leg kicks were inadvertent or dirty raged throughout the playoffs. Ultimately, Green found himself suspended for a possible closeout game in the NBA Finals, which might have swung the series in Cleveland's favor.
Offseason scandals, from a fight in East Lansing that resulted in a plea bargain on assault charges to a Snapchat snafu, were further indications that Green must find a way to maintain control without sacrificing the fire that propels him to great heights on the court.
Offensively, Green took a huge leap in his development last season. Particularly under acting head coach Luke Walton, he was a more accurate 3-point shooter than ever before; Green hit 41.4 percent of his 3-point attempts under Walton before sliding to 34.9 percent under Steve Kerr -- similar to his 34.2 percent career mark. Beyond the additional points, those triples force defenders to play closer to Green, opening up the drive.
He also functioned as something of a point forward for the Warriors. Green's 7.4 assists per game were double his 2014-15 average and the most ever by a full-time power forward or center not named Wilt Chamberlain. Green started running pick-and-rolls at times and more or less ran the point with Curry out of the lineup.
For the second consecutive year, Green finished as runner-up in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Without blocking more shots, he has developed into a legitimate rim protector. According to SportVU tracking data on NBA.com/Stats, opponents shot worse against Green within five feet of the basket (46.6 percent) than league block leader Hassan Whiteside (46.9 percent). While there's surely some team effect there, Green's ability to protect the rim allowed Golden State to use him at center more frequently than the 2014-15 regular season.
Such lineups, including the Death Lineup, were the team's best. In part, these lineups are so effective defensively because putting Green at center means the Warriors can switch nearly any pick-and-roll because of his ability to defend guards one-on-one.
Zaza Pachulia
Position: Center
Experience: 13 years
Age: 32
Scouting report
+ Veteran center who relies on experience and instincts more than athleticism
+ Good positional defender but not a shot-blocking threat
+ Effective passer out of the high post but not a shooting threat
Analysis
One of last season's stranger developments was Pachulia nearly being voted an All-Star starter. How did a little-known journeyman on the Dallas Mavericks get more votes than new teammate Draymond Green? Pachulia leveraged support on social media from the president of his native Georgia (the republic, not the state), singer Wyclef Jean and Vine star Hayes Grier.
While Pachulia didn't play at an All-Star level, he did play well in the first half before slumping after the break and losing his hold on a starting job. An unrestricted free agent over the summer, Pachulia spurned larger offers to sign a one-year, $2.9 million deal to serve as Golden State's starting center.
Offensively, Pachulia should be able to step into the same role as predecessor Andrew Bogut (who will replace him in Dallas). He's a fine playmaker from the high post who averaged 3.7 assists per 36 minutes each of his past two seasons with the Milwaukee Bucks before handling the ball less frequently last season.
Like Bogut, Pachulia would rather pass or even drive after a pump fake than shoot a set shot from the perimeter. However, he is a good free throw shooter (76.8 percent last season). The Warriors will miss Bogut's ability to finish lobs. Per Basketball-Reference.com, the ground-bound Pachulia made just 13 dunks last season -- precisely one-sixth of Bogut's total.
At the other end, Pachulia isn't a shot blocker at all. He rejected 22 shots last season, fewer than Bogut had in the playoffs (35). Since he's not going to affect shots after they're taken, Pachulia must rely on discouraging them with his positioning. He's also a good pick-and-roll defender.
As a result, Pachulia ranked a respectable 16th among centers in the defensive component of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM). While that's a big downgrade from Bogut (who led the league in defensive RPM), it's awfully good for $2.9 million.
Reserves Memphis Grizzlies. Golden State will give Williams a chance this year in training camp, and if he does make the team, Williams could even end up as a rotation player at guard.
A first-round pick of the Portland Trail Blazers whose early career was derailed by a series of major injuries, Williams has made strides as both a shooter (he has shot 36 percent from 3-point range the past two years in the D-League) and as a lead ball handler. While his assist rate is partially inflated by fast pace and heavy minutes (41 per game last season), Williams has certainly shown enough playmaking chops to serve as a secondary ball handler. And at 6-foot-5, he has more than enough size to defend shooting guards. On paper, that should translate to an NBA player. Maybe this is the year.
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