Player profiles: Projecting Millsap, Dwight Howard and the Hawks

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How will Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard and the Atlanta Hawks do in 2016-17?

Here are our player scouting reports and analysis.

Projected starters

Dennis Schroder
Position: Guard
Experience: 3 years
Age: 23

Scouting report
+ Score-first point guard who succeeds despite small stature
+ Needs to improve pass-or-shoot decision-making in halfcourt and transition
+ Explosive lead guard at his best attacking with the dribble
+ Doesn't force many turnovers, struggles against bigger guards

Schroder's third season was a mixed bag. His league rank in WARP improved from 165th to 123rd over 2014-15, a solid if modest leap considering that his playing time was largely stagnant. Given his age (just 22 at season's end), you'd like to see a steeper ascension during this phase of his career. Schroder's arsenal became more 3-point heavy even though his accuracy (32.2 percent) remains below average. He also struggled at the basket, hitting just 51.5 percent in the restricted area, per NBA.com/stats, and he doesn't draw a ton of contact for a player who is so adept at getting into the lane.

Schroder's defensive RPM improved but is still well below average. He doesn't get many steals for a small guard and his lack of size makes it easier for bigger guards to muscle him or simply shoot over him. He's also a poor rebounder. But for all his troubles on the defensive end, the Hawks need Schroder to step up his point guard play. His turnover rate was up last season and he needs to make better and more consistent decisions when it comes to attacking or facilitating, and quick as he is, he needs to become more dynamic in the open floor.

The Hawks acquired veteran Jarrett Jack to back up Schroder, assuming he has recovered from a serious knee injury. Given Atlanta's veteran front line and the increasing prominence of jack-of-all-trades wing Kent Bazemore, it's not hard to envision a Hawks team at its best with Jack doing his combo-guard thing and Bazemore initiating the offense. So this is a big season for Schroder in every respect. He needs to show he can not only be more efficient in his own game, but he can help his teammates do the same in theirs.

Kyle Korver
Position: Guard
Experience: 13 years
Age: 36

Scouting report
+ Dangerous stand-still shooter whom opponents must track
+ Solid team defender who rarely gets exposed in isolation
+ Tremendous transition player with knack for getting open 3-pointers as a trailer

Analysis

One year after coming off his first All-Star appearance, Korver's game cratered in 2015-16. Even though he played virtually the same number of minutes as the season before, his WARP slipped from 6.8 to 0.3, and his ranking from 46th to 261st. Given that it was Korver's age-35 season, there has to be concern that he's simply reached the end of his days as a starter. But as he enters the last year of his contract, don't give up on Korver just yet.

Ankle and knee trouble limited the ability of the workaholic Korver to maintain his offseason regimen last summer and the difference showed during the season. He didn't move as well without the ball, was slower coming off screens and running the baseline, and didn't shoot as well when he did get looks. For a player to shoot 39.7 percent on a large volume of 3s to be considered as a having an "off" season, that says a lot. Two seasons ago, Korver led the NBA in catch-and-shoot points per game (8.5), according to NBA.com/stats, and put up a torrid 72.0 effective field-goal percent on those looks. Last season, his accuracy dropped 14 percent. The difference is huge: Korver's offensive RPM dropped by three points in the single-season version, and is now basically neutral in the predictive version.

Korver's defensive metrics were fine. He's a good team defender who maximizes his abilities on that end with good positioning by consistently challenging shots and slapping at the ball with quick hands. While he has never been great defending on an island, Korver rarely gets burned in isolation. SCHOENE sees him having a bounce-back season to an extent; better than 2015-16 but not back to the level of his odd, post-30 peak. The early season will be key for him. The Hawks will start over-30 players at center and power forward. If Korver falters, the Hawks might want to turn his spot over to the improving Tim Hardaway Jr., who is younger and more athletic and could grow with younger perimeter starters Dennis Schroder and Kent Bazemore.

Kent Bazemore
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
Age: 27

Scouting report
+ Versatile wing scorer and corner shooter
+ Efficiency has improved with better shooting
+ Terrific rebounder for size and position

Analysis
The Hawks signed Bazemore to a four-year, $70 million deal over the summer, validating the upgrades he has made to his game since arriving in the NBA as an undrafted free agent in 2012. Originally envisioned as more of a score-first, oversized lead guard, Bazemore has become an undersized wing who gets by with nearly 7-foot wingspan and improved shooting ability.

As Atlanta's primary replacement for DeMarre Carroll last season, Bazemore played a career-high 2,077 minutes, and for the first time finished with better-than-replacement WARP (2.6), putting him near the top quarter of all NBA players. Not only did Bazemore push his usage rate back above league average, but he posted a 55.2 true shooting percentage that was easily a career best.

As usual, Bazemore hit more than 40 percent on corner 3s, a major part of his game. His foul-drawing rate slipped as he became more perimeter oriented. However, in upping his free throw percentage from 60 to 81.5 percent, that part of his game was also more efficient. As was Bazemore's decision-making, illustrated by a turnover rate down 1.4 percent.

Despite his incredibly long arms and athleticism, his defensive impact is still not what it should be. His RPM on that end fell back below zero last season and the Hawks were 2.0 points per 100 possessions better with him off the floor, according to basketball-reference.com. He collects steals, blocks and scores of defensive rebounds, but needs to become more accomplished and disciplined on the ball.

Given Schroder's inexperience, Atlanta may look to Bazemore as more of a playmaker this season, so the opportunity is there for him to continue his upward climb. As the Hawks move into their next phase, one where Schroder and Howard have replaced Teague and Horford, Bazemore is going to have to continue his improvement. Given their investment in him this summer, clearly the Hawks think Bazemore can do just that.

Paul Millsap
Position: Forward
Experience: 10 years
Age: 32

Scouting report
+ Self-made All-Star who has improved and added skills throughout career
+ Versatile offensively, can score inside and out, and facilitate for others
+ Excellent help defender and elite in playing the passing lanes

Analysis
Millsap's 10th NBA season was his best yet, though it was not surprising for a player who has improved steadily since entering the league as the 47th pick of the 2006 draft. The Hawks ran more of their offense through Millsap, as his touches per 36 minutes were up six per game, per NBA.com/stats, helping his assist rate reach a career-best level. He's a good enough passer at this point that SCHOENE now lists playmaking forwards such Scottie Pippen and Chris Webber high up on his list of statistical comps.

It's hard to believe, but it wasn't so long ago that Millsap attempted about one 3-pointer every other game. Last season, he launched a career-high 232 treys. He's around league-average in accuracy, a little below that last season (31.9 percent) but he's enough of a threat to work in all sorts of lineups, even some last season that had him sliding over to small forward. He's a dynamite post player, so if you try to go small against the Hawks thinking Millsap will hover around the 3-point line, he can make you pay on the block.

Early in the summer, Millsap's name was bandied about on the rumor mill as the Hawks were trying to figure out how to keep Al Horford. When Horford left and Dwight Howard arrived, Millsap remained a fixture. But this will be a different dynamic for the Atlanta frontcourt, as the Millsap-Howard pairing doesn't offer the same inside-out flexibility as Millsap-Horford. However, the new lineup should help the Hawks get even more utility out of Millsap's elite help defense, as Howard can protect the rim, where Millsap is not at his best.

One challenge for the revamped Hawks will be to keep Millsap in positions of strength. While he is a solid face-up option, he's not at his best in catch-and-shoot situations. You want to keep him on the move, but the danger is that if Howard is running the pick-and-roll with Dennis Schroder, Millsap will be marginalized on the perimeter. If that happens, he'll need to improve his accuracy from the corners, where he hit just 19 percent a season ago.

Dwight Howard
Position: Center
Experience: 12 years
Age: 31

Scouting report
+  Elite rebounder and above-average rim protector
+ Not as mobile on either end as he used to be but finishes well
+ Offensive utility is becoming increasingly marginal, making efficiency crucial

Analysis
After three up-and-down seasons in Houston, Howard signed a three-year, $70.5 million deal with the Hawks that returns him to his hometown. Howard was born in Atlanta and starred at Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy before turning pro and becoming the top overall pick of the 2004 draft. He's not the same player he was as a prep standout, but neither is he the same franchise center who for a few years was a perennial MVP candidate.

These days, Howard is less Shaquille O'Neal and more Nate Thurmond. His offensive role in Houston kept shrinking until last season his usage rate slipped to a career-low 18.5 percent. The good news was that Howard's efficiency at the rim (70.6 percent in the restricted area, per NBA.com/stats) led to a career-best 62.5 percent mark on 2-pointers. His free throw shooting was again lackluster, dropping under break-even in 2015-16, and even after another summer of working on this chronic issue, it's silly to think it'll get better at this point.

Howard remains a much better offensive player on the move than he is when playing a traditional low-block role with his back to the basket. According to Synergy Sports Technologies, he shot 47.5 percent on post-ups and rated as average in points per play. He doesn't draw many double-teams on the block, nor is he great on pass-outs when opponents send an extra player. On the positive side, Howard remains a top pick-and-roll finisher.

Howard's defensive RPM declines with each passing season. He's still a good stationary defender and a great rebounder, but he's no longer effective if you can get him on the move. Years of back and knee trouble have robbed him of some of his once otherworldly mobility and explosiveness, though he makes up for some of the decline with brute strength. In Atlanta, Howard will help shore up weak spots in rim protection and defensive rebounding. It remains to be seen if his old-school center arsenal will fit with a team that puts a premium on versatility and ball movement.

SCHOENE is pessimistic, forecasting Howard for a career-low .505 individual winning percentage and an offensive RPM that marks him increasingly as a defense-and-rebounding specialist.

Reserves Mike Muscala Position: Center Experience: 3 years Age: 25

Scouting report
+ Excellent stand-still shooter from midrange
+ Occasional 3-point range with touch to be a more consistent threat
+ Solid rim protector and shot-blocker who could improve work on the glass

Analysis
Muscala has turned into a viable NBA reserve, a big man of capable of holding up defensively in the middle with the floor-spacing chops to swing to 4 in big lineups. His 3-point shooting remains more a threat than an actuality, but his high-level midrange shooting makes him a capable pick-and-pop option. With just a little more range, he could carve out a long career as a stretch 5. His RPM last season ranked a respectable 31st among centers, with most of his plus-0.82 mark coming on the defensive end. He's not a great rebounder but he consistently blocks over 3 percent of opposing 2s.

The immediate problem for Muscala is that he has a non-guaranteed contract on a team with 16 players that have deals entering camp. He may be insurance for a possible legal-related Mike Scott departure, or a lingering Tiago Splitter hip problem. Either way, he's good enough to force Mike Budenholzer into a tough roster decision. Muscala will have an NBA job this season. We'll have to wait to see if it's in Atlanta.