Everything you need to know about the playoff for the second half
— -- We had Clemson-Louisville. Tennessee-Texas A&M. Navy-Houston. We had blocked kicks, Lambeau Leaps (just not during the game!), and ... lots of Jim Harbaugh.
If you thought the first half of the season was entertaining, brace yourself.
This is when it gets good.
The second half of the season is when the College Football Playoff selection committee rankings begin (on Nov. 1), when the anticipation for league title games increases, and when upsets have the potential to turn the playoff picture upside down.
Houston's loss to Navy pretty much ended the Group of 5 playoff dream, so here's a breakdown of where each Power 5 conference stands in the playoff picture at the midpoint of the season:
ACC
Top playoff contender: Clemson
Even if the Tigers lose at Florida State on Oct. 29, Clemson will still win the Atlantic Division with a good chance to win the conference title game and finish in the top four. ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Tigers the best chance of any team (71 percent) with one or no losses to win their league.
In the picture: Louisville
The Cardinals have to win out and look like a top-four team in the process (unlike Friday night against Duke) in order to even be considered. The road trip to Houston is their only remaining chance to impress the committee against a ranked opponent.
Game to watch: The ACC championship game, Dec. 3
If a two-loss Coastal Division champ (think UNC, Pitt or Virginia Tech) upends Clemson in the title game, the ACC could be left out entirely -- unless the committee turns to a one-loss Louisville.
Biggest disappointment: Florida State
The Noles were ranked No. 4 this preseason, but sank quickly after an 0-2 start to league play that included an embarrassing 63-20 loss at Louisville. Much of it could be attributed to a subpar defense that has allowed 28.9 points per game.
Biggest question: Can Louisville still finish in the top four?
It's a long shot, but if there is a two-loss Power 5 conference champion out there (even if it's in the ACC), the committee would debate whether a one-loss Louisville is the better team.
BIG 12
Top playoff contenders: Baylor, West Virginia
Both are undefeated, and the Mountaineers earned respect with a gritty defensive performance in the win at Texas Tech, but there's still a long way to go for both. Baylor has no wins over ranked opponents and the weakest nonconference schedule in the country. Both teams still have to play Oklahoma -- and each other.
In the picture: Oklahoma
The Sooners' two losses were to Houston and Ohio State, both top 25 teams. If they run the table -- and another Power 5 conference champion stumbles -- OU would at least be considered by the 12 committee members as the league champ. ESPN's FPI favors the Sooners in every remaining game.
Game to watch: Baylor at West Virginia, Dec. 3
If somehow both of these teams stay undefeated, it would add up to a de facto Big 12 title game on Dec. 3, when every other Power 5 conference is playing their real championship games. Because of their weak schedule strength, though, it's unlikely either team could survive a loss and still be in the top four.
Biggest disappointment: Texas
What a tumble Texas has taken since beating Notre Dame in double overtime in the season opener. It looked that day as if the Longhorns were ready to take the next step under Charlie Strong, but at 3-3 with a loss to rival OU, it's another step back.
Biggest question: Will the Big 12 be left out of the CFP again?
Ironically, strength of schedule will be an issue for just about everyone but Oklahoma, which couldn't handle its tough schedule. The best-cast scenario would be for West Virginia to win out, but ESPN's FPI gives the Mountaineers just a 16 percent chance of winning the league with one or no losses.
BIG TEN
Top playoff contenders: Ohio State and Michigan
The Buckeyes have a slight edge with two road wins over top 25 opponents in Oklahoma and Wisconsin, but Michigan's defensive effort in the win against the Badgers was also impressive, and the nonconference win over Colorado will catch the committee's eye.
In the picture: Nebraska
The Huskers are undefeated, but have no wins against Power 5 opponents above .500. The only team they've played with a winning record is 4-2 Wyoming. Nebraska will be taken more seriously in the playoff race if it is still undefeated after back-to-back road trips to Wisconsin and Ohio State.
Game to watch: Michigan at Ohio State, Nov. 26
Even ESPN's FPI has a tough time choosing the winner, calling it a 50-50 game right now. The only way to settle this debate is on the field. The winner will likely win the East Division, and emerge as the Big Ten's premier playoff candidate.
Biggest disappointment: Michigan State
Expectations were tempered this preseason, but the Spartans have still underwhelmed, losing four straight and dropping to 0-3 in league play. It's possible the second half of the season is just as bad, as they still have to play Ohio State and Michigan. FPI has the Spartans with a 94 percent chance of missing a bowl game entirely.
Biggest question: Can the Ohio State-Michigan loser still finish in the top four?
Yes, but it has to be a close game and another Power 5 conference champion likely has to stumble along the way. They both have one good nonconference win, which will help when comparing resumes.
PAC-12
Top playoff contender: Washington
The Huskies completely dominated both Stanford and Oregon, knocking off the two programs that have combined to win every Pac-12 title since 2009. Quarterback Jake Browning is in the Heisman conversation, and Washington is the clear favorite to win the conversation. Its nonconference strength of schedule is its only glaring weakness.
In the picture: Utah
Colorado is the FPI favorite to win the Pac-12 South, and the Nov. 26 game at Utah could determine the division winner. Utah, though, still has to play Washington on Oct. 29. If the Utes win out and pull off an upset in the Pac-12 title game, it would be an interesting debate for the committee. A two-loss Colorado Pac-12 champ, however, would likely eliminate the league.
Game to watch: Washington at Washington State, Nov. 25
With losses to Eastern Washington and Boise State, Washington State isn't a playoff contender, but it can certainly play the role of spoiler in its regular-season finale. If Washington loses a game, its nonconference schedule could become an issue.
Biggest disappointment: Stanford
It's a good thing the defense can score, because the Cardinal's offense has had some trouble. It hasn't helped that running back Christian McCaffrey has missed time with an injury, but it's hardly the season expected by a team that was ranked in the preseason top 10.
Biggest question: Does Washington have to go undefeated?
Six of the past eight semifinalists have had a loss, so history tells us no, but take a closer look at the Huskies' nonconference schedule (Portland State, Idaho and Rutgers) and it might not be so clear -- especially if there is an undefeated West Virginia to compete with. ESPN's FPI says Washington is favored to win each of its remaining games by at least 70 percent, but the potential for an upset always lingers.
SEC
Top playoff contender: Alabama
After dismantling Tennessee, Bama is No. 1 in ESPN's top three metrics: strength of record, game control and FPI. The Crimson Tide are now nearly four times as likely to win the SEC as any other team. With 11 non-offensive touchdowns, they've been the most complete team in the country.
In the picture: Texas A&M, Tennessee, Florida
The Aggies will play Bama on Saturday for the lead in the SEC West, and whoever emerges from the East will get one more chance to make a statement in the SEC title game. Good luck. Alabama would have at least an 85 percent chance to beat any team from the SEC East in a potential SEC title game, according to FPI.
Game to watch: Texas A&M at Alabama, Oct. 22
If the Aggies win on Saturday, the playoff picture changes immediately, as they become the SEC's top team and leader in the West. Alabama, though, has a 77 percent chance to win, according to FPI. It's a must-win game for both teams.
Biggest disappointment: LSU
The Tigers overfloweth with talent, but former coach Les Miles couldn't translate it into a spot in the playoff and was fired in September after a 2-2 start. Technically, LSU is still in the hunt for the SEC West, but it has to survive the pending stretch that includes Ole Miss, Alabama and Arkansas.
Biggest question: Can anyone beat Alabama?
The Tide has won back-to-back road games against top 25 teams. It beat Ole Miss this year. It shellacked USC. The Aggies, LSU and Auburn will all get a shot, but based on what we've seen so far? Nobody looks good enough to unseat the defending national champs.
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