5-on-5 Predictions: Will Cavs or Warriors Win NBA title?
— -- Here we go: One game for the NBA title.
Will LeBron James and the Cavaliers or Stephen Curry and the Warriors win it all?
Our 5-on-5 team forecasts the outcome of the NBA Finals entering Game 7 on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/WatchESPN).
1. What's the most important thing to watch for Cleveland in Game 7?
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Can the Cavaliers get the same kind of defensive production they got in Game 6? After allowing an abysmal 115 points per 100 possessions in the first two games, the Cavs have locked in defensively, holding Golden State to 101.5 points per 100 possessions, including two games of sub-95 points per 100 possessions. For Cleveland to prevail, they must continue to defend at this high level, as an offensive tete-a-tete will likely result in their demise.
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Kyrie Irving's balky foot. It's truly become a war of attrition at this point. In Game 6, Kevin Love sat on the bench with a heating pad. LeBron James played the entire second half, brilliantly and necessarily. After a wobbly second half in which he shot 1-for-6 and turned the ball over twice in 18 minutes, Irving's foot will become pivotal.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The quality of the Cavs' shots has been even more impressive than their success in making them. They'll need to shoot well again, but look for those run-to-the-rim dunks and layups.
On defense, they'll have to balance their success with banging on Curry and Thompson with the possibility of some quicker whistles from a heavily scrutinized officiating crew.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: It would be great if the Cavs could bring the same collective energy they brought in Games 3 and 6, when they jumped out to big leads. But, away from home, that might be unlikely.
Given that Love isn't having a great impact on the series -- averaging fewer than 10 points and six rebounds -- the Cavs might ponder starting Richard Jefferson instead.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: LeBron James' jumper. It's been back for a while now, though the whims of when and why it comes and goes remain somewhat inscrutable, at least from a predictive standpoint. When James is on from the perimeter, he's basically impossible to defend, which is what he's been the past two games. If James misses from the outside, Golden State can back off and keep him out of the paint.
2. What's the most important thing to watch for Golden State in Game 7?
Elhassan: Will Golden State coach Steve Kerr continue to give minutes to the most famous missing man in America, Harrison Barnes? To borrow a phrase from Stugotz of The Dan Le Batard Show, "I mean this guy ... really?"
I usually abhor cliched talk about "choking," but otherwise I struggle to describe what I'm seeing. He's not being asked to do anything above and beyond his usual duties, and he's failing to deliver. Kerr needs to pull the plug quickly if he heads down the same path in Game 7 because, in the words of the great Apollo Creed, there is no tomorrow.
Haberstroh: Can Harrison Barnes play? The guy has hit only two of his past 22 shots and has made life so much harder for the Warriors. The 11 looks from deep in Game 5 and Game 6 have been so wide open, an average player, according to SportVU data, would have made 47 percent of the shots, and he's converted just 9.1 percent (one make). It's hard to watch at this point, especially with Andre Iguodala laboring.
Doolittle: The Warriors broke down into their component parts in Game 6, and that can't happen again. They need to get back to moving the ball, though for that to actually happen, their complementary players need to start hitting open looks. The Curry-as-savior approach carries with it a low probability of success.
Engelmann: The Warriors need to hope Iguodala's back injury, which slowed him in Game 6, doesn't significantly limit him in Game 7, as he's probably the best defender they can throw at LeBron. Curry needs to be focused and cannot get frustrated by either the Cavs' physical play or the refs' questionable calls.
Pelton: Iguodala's health. If his back remains a problem after two days off, the Warriors' defensive options on James get a lot worse. And Iguodala is also a vital part of Golden State's offense with his ability to run the offense while Curry and Klay Thompson play off the ball. A limited Iguodala makes this a much tougher game for the Warriors.
3. Which number is closest to your own estimate?
A. Golden State 64 percent likely to win series ( PredictWise)
B. Golden State 65 percent likely to win series ( FiveThirtyEight)
C. Golden State 73 percent likely to win series ( ESPN's Basketball Power Index)
Elhassan: C. The Warriors are at home with the two-time reigning MVP and a deep and capable lineup. LeBron has been terrific, but I have less faith in his supporting cast to be able to deliver on the road.
Haberstroh: A. If Iguodala isn't healthy and can't slow down James, this is a lot closer than the metrics suggest. Health has jumped to the forefront of this series and I'm not sure the analytics can pick that up accurately. Of course, both sides are gimpy, but Iguodala's health matters a ton. He is the antidote for James' attack.
Doolittle: A. I'd say it's in the 55 to 60 percent range in favor of Golden State, strictly because of home court. Otherwise, the way Cleveland has played the past two games, combined with Golden State's injury problems, would have me tagging the Cavs as a slight favorite.
Engelmann: A/B. I originally said the Warriors would have an 80 percent chance of winning Game 7, but with Iguodala not at full speed, I think the Cavs have an improved chance. Not only is Iguodala one of the best wing defenders of our generation and an important part of the Death Lineup, but the Warriors' bench also isn't exactly great. Barnes being 2-for-22 in the past two games doesn't help.
Pelton: C. I don't think projection systems account for the extra home-court advantage in Game 7, so even with Iguodala's status hurting the Warriors, I still have them about 75 percent to win.
4. Who wins Game 7?
Haberstroh: The Warriors. They just beat the Thunder in an ugly Game 7 after being down 3-1 in the series. Zooming out even further, at home the Warriors are 50-4 this season and 2-1 against the Cavs in this series with a point differential of plus-33. It's hard to go with the Cavs here, given all that evidence of home-court dominance.
Doolittle: Cavs in Game 7! My preseries self was prescient and is ashamed that I lost faith in the face of Cleveland's 3-1 deficit. The Warriors look rattled, and with Andrew Bogut out and Iguodala ailing, Golden State can't apply the full force of either its best big lineup or its best small lineup. With the way James is playing, Iggy's injury is a big problem.
Engelmann: As good as Cleveland has looked, I still have to go with the Warriors, who are favored by five points in Vegas. We will not see a repeat of Game 6, because the Cavs have only brought that kind of energy at home in Cleveland. Home-court advantage will now work in the Warriors' favor.
Pelton: Most likely Golden State. History overwhelmingly favors the home team, even in situations like this. Of the eight times since 1984 teams down 3-1 have forced a Game 7 on the road, they've only won once. And in series like this with a combined margin of 10 points or fewer headed into Game 7 (it's precisely zero in this series, the first time since at least 1984), the home team wins 80 percent of the time. A Cleveland upset is certainly possible but not likely.
5. Who's your Finals MVP favorite?
Elhassan: I'm philosophically opposed to the notion of a Finals MVP being on the losing side, but it's hard to deny the brilliance of LeBron James over the past four games, regardless of the outcome of the game. The only reason we are getting ready for Game 7 has been his all-around play, and barring a Curry explosion, I think LeBron should win Finals MVP.
Haberstroh: LeBron James. No one is excelling on the Warriors, and James is playing head and shoulders above the rest. James has a 35.0 player efficiency rating here in the Finals, which is way north of his 27.5 PER last Finals -- and he almost won the award then. Per RealGM, James' PER is the best since 2002 Shaquille O'Neal, who was at a monstrous 38.5. From an award standpoint, his production and overall greatness can't be denied.
Doolittle: Barring something extra extraordinary in Game 7, LeBron has it clinched. This has been a signature performance for him, and the high points have come when the stakes have been the highest. He's the Finals MVP, regardless of Sunday's outcome.
Engelmann: I'll have to go with LeBron even if the Warriors win the series. In 2015, LeBron -- clearly the best player -- didn't win the award because there was a narrative in favor of Iguodala, who was plugged into the starting unit for the last three games, all of which the Warriors then proceeded to win. This time there's no comparable narrative for any Warrior.
Pelton: LeBron James. If the Cavaliers win, James will be MVP, and he's been so dominant in this series he's got a chance even if Cleveland loses. Given that, I don't think any one Warriors player is more likely to win MVP.
