5-on-5 predictions: Are Lillard, Blazers contenders in the West?
— -- Are the Trail Blazers contenders in the Western Conference? What moves do they need to make?
Our NBA Insiders preview Portland's 2016-17 season.
1. What's your take on the Blazers' offseason?
Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com:?Interesting, and somewhat a gamble to sign Evan Turner and Allen Crabbe to big multiyear deals, though the Trail Blazers got some value with Maurice Harkless and Meyers Leonard.
The numbers might raise eyebrows, but in the final analysis, the deals don't compromise a young team's development, and there are enough attractive assets on the roster to correct whatever spreadsheet mistakes materialize.
Chad Ford, ESPN Insider:?The Turner signing was a head-scratcher for me. I can't figure out how Portland decided it needed to throw $70 million at a guard who needs the ball in his hands but isn't all that effective. I see some major chemistry issues there. The rest of the deals I liked, but the Turner signing was one of the worst of the summer.
Justin Verrier, ESPN.com:?Standing pat, for the moment, is better than a step back. The Blazers didn't get appreciably better. But even though the lunch menu on Paul Allen's yacht may be less robust as a result of their spending spree, none of the deals, aside from maybe Turner's, feels overly burdensome, which should provide future flexibility while maintaining their current upward trajectory.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider:?I like the fact that they let Gerald Henderson go -- according to his -3.2 Real Plus-Minus (RPM), he wasn't very effective. Of their five big new contracts, ironically I like their cheapest get -- Festus Ezeli at two years, $15 million -- by far the most. None of the quartet of Turner, Crabbe, Harkless and Leonard cracked -1 on RPM, so consider me a skeptic.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider:?It was expensive! The Blazers did what they had to do in terms of using cap space -- which they won't have for years to come -- and bringing back key pieces, but the price does put more pressure on them to contend now. After three preseason games, I remain unconvinced Turner's playmaking will help more than his inefficiency hurts.
2. What is the biggest issue facing the Blazers this season?
Arnovitz: The 20th-ranked defense from a year ago needs to stiffen this season for Portland to take a big leap forward. The Blazers are confident that the continuity of the roster, coupled with another year of seasoning, should push them firmly up the ledger. Hassan Whiteside would've provided the rim protection the Trail Blazers covet, but such is life at the free-agency bazaar.
Ford:?Are there enough shots for Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Turner and Crabbe? They want to match the firepower of the Warriors, but I think there could be some major chemistry issues.
Verrier:?Defense. The Blazers proved last postseason that they have the scoring punch to trade blows with any team, but it will be hard to match the same deep run in a top-heavy West with a bottom-third defense. It doesn't help that Ezeli, who figured to provide some sorely needed rim protection, has yet to suit up in preseason because of a knee injury.
Engelmann:?Point guard depth is an issue. The only true PG on the roster, besides Lillard, is Shabazz Napier, who recorded a -4.4 RPM last season, good for bottom 25 in the league. Yes, McCollum and Turner can handle the ball-handling duties, but Napier has looked almost useless in all other facets of the game as well.
Pelton:?Expectations. As noted on the Lakers' broadcast earlier this week, last season was actually the second-worst of the strong Neil Olshey/Terry Stotts era in Portland, but it felt like a huge win because virtually nobody saw it coming. If the Blazers win 44 games again, it will be seen as a disappointment.
3.?What needs to happen for the Blazers to be a power in the West?
Pelton:?I think they would need a third player to get in the All-Star discussion, presumably in the frontcourt. Realistically, Noah Vonleh is probably the best hope of that happening on the roster.
Engelmann:?That window was open this past summer. But the Blazers, in my opinion, blew it when they signed Crabbe and Turner to a combined $145M. Had they used the money to sign Jared Dudley and Matthew Dellavedova instead, I'd declare them a powerhouse now. As it is, they probably have to hope for further internal growth.
Arnovitz:?Pristine health and exceptional progress in the development of at least one or two of their young players. If Crabbe can shoot 42 percent from deep and grow into a rugged wing defender, if Al-Farouq Aminu can learn to initiate offense from the wing and continues to hone his shot, if Leonard returns to 50-40-90 form, you can imagine a scenario in which Portland racks up a win total in the 50 range -- but that's a lot of stars to align.
Ford:?They are right there with the Spurs, Jazz and Clippers, in my opinion -- all vying for second place in the West. I'd put them fifth, but if their big scorers are all healthy, they can put up points with anyone.
Verrier:?A trade for a high-level difference-maker. Portland is deservedly brimming with hope. Its team is young and stretchy and plays aesthetically pleasing basketball. Lillard is a snarly brand of superstar you can get behind. But in an era of super teams, the Blazers appear destined for a Hawksian malaise when they bump their head on their current ceiling once or twice.
4.?What trade would make the most sense for the Blazers?
Arnovitz:?Portland's brass would ideally like to continue developing its assets and, at the optimal time, aggregate them to acquire a big gun. The elephant in Rip City is whether one of those pieces could ever be McCollum, the NBA's reigning Most Improved Player, who is adored by his teammates, the Blazers' staff and the fan base alike. If the Trail Blazers found an opportunity, would they move him? At present, that's one of the most closely held secrets in the NBA.
Verrier:?A swing for the fences. With their cadre of above-average young 'uns and all of their future first-rounders (plus Cleveland's in 2018), the Blazers can put together one of the more appealing packages for a disgruntled star, especially if they're willing to part with McCollum. I'm not sure of DeMarcus Cousins' interest in craft beer, but a team buoyed by Lillard and an All-Star big man was a serious threat in the West just two years ago (before an injury robbed them of Wes Matthews).
Engelmann:?Besides Lillard and McCollum, I doubt the Blazers would get much in return for most players on their roster. They own the Cavs' 2018 1st-rounder, so maybe they can package that with one of their own to create an enticing package. Getting a decent combo guard would help tremendously.
Ford:?I think finding a swap for Turner or Crabbe that brought back a more dominant big would give them more balance. They need the equivalent of a Draymond Green-type player right now -- a versatile, multipositional big who can stretch the floor and protect the rim (thought that won't be easy to get). Leonard and Mason Plumlee are solid, but they could use an upgrade.
Pelton:?Even if Ezeli can't give the Blazers regular contributions due to his knee injuries, there's still a crowd up front now that Aminu is a full-time power forward. So it's probably Portland dealing one of its big men -- either Ed Davis, the oldest player in the group, or Plumlee instead of signing him to a new, more lucrative contract.
5. Fact or Fiction: The Blazers will make the Western Conference final four.
Arnovitz:?Fiction, for no other reason that the field is large and the Jazz might be just a smidge better this season. That said, the Trail Blazers show up for big games and cut their teeth during a magical run last spring. In short, it's improbable, but certainly not unfathomable.
Verrier:?Fiction. The Blazers should again be in the middle of the traffic jam for the bottom half of the West's playoff bracket, but it's hard envisioning an encore with as much gusto considering last year's path to the second round was cleared by injuries to their opposition's two best players.
Ford:?Fiction. I have them fifth in the West, but the distance between them, the Jazz and the Clippers is very short.
Engelmann:?Fiction. My projections see five teams battling for the No. 3 and 4 spots in the West, with the Blazers being one of the weaker teams of those five. That would result in a less than 40 percent chance of having homecourt advantage in the first round, making it unlikely they'll advance.
Pelton:?Fiction. Certainly, their chances are better than they were this time a year ago, when it proved to be fact. But I wouldn't put the Blazers among the top four teams in the West entering this season, and things get muddled outside of that group.
