Pricing the top 50 free agents, plus best fits

ByJIM BOWDEN
November 11, 2015, 1:17 PM

— -- All is well in Major League Baseball from a financial perspective. MLB revenues continue to grow at a rapid pace, and in turn, player salaries continue to skyrocket; we'll see plenty of handsome contracts given out this offseason.

How handsome? That's what we look at below, as I offer up an expected contract length, dollar value and Average Annual Value (A.A.V.) for my ranking of the top-50 free agents (I rank by preference, not by contract value). I also share which teams are expressing interest and/or I think are the best fit for each player.

First, some background: I served in front offices of major league teams for a quarter of a century, 15 of those years as a senior VP/GM. During that time, my responsibilities included studying free agents and the risks that come with them, from age, injuries, makeup/character, statistical concerns and personal issues. I would scour every stat report, scouting report and developmental report I could, along with closely monitoring industry revenues and the impact they could have on my teams. Then there's the basic decline or improvement in physical ability and what it does for future projections. That's all juxtaposed against overall market shifts.

This is my fifth year projecting free-agent salaries for ESPN Insider. These are always a mix of gut instinct, evaluating new and old contracts and consultation with several people presently involved in the day-to-day operations of the sport, from both the agent and club sides.

A few other premises to keep in mind as you read this list:

• Player salaries and terms are often based on position and supply and demand rather than just overall talent. That's just how the free-agent market works.

• Another defining characteristic of the FA market: Signings from last year, both good and bad, will affect how some clubs do business.

• The qualifying offer has upped to $15.8 million this year (from $15.3 million last year), which will have a domino effect on some free agents. The draft-pick compensation tends to make teams think twice before signing a player with a qualifying offer, and the lofty qualifying-offer salary (albeit for one year) means that this could be the first year certain players actually accept it.

• This list does not include any international free agents for two reasons: Due to the various posting fees, rules and regulations for signing international FAs, there's no guarantee the player will actually become a true free agent; and most importantly, I have never personally met those guys or seen them play. I don't care to project years and values on a player like that.

• Instead of right-handed pitcher (RHP) and left-handed pitcher (LHP), I use left/right-handed starter (RHS/LHS) or reliever (RHR, LHR).

With that, let's get to my rankings and pricing of the top-50 free agents in this year's class:

Received qualifying offer

Greinke, who allowed either one or zero runs in 21 of his 32 starts this year, is the best free agent on the market, and I expect him to get the highest average annual value of any player. However, because he is two years older than David Price, I think he will get fewer years and thus less overall money.

Price won his second AL ERA title this year with the Tigers and Blue Jays and soon will become the highest-paid free-agent pitcher in baseball history, surpassing Max Scherzer's seven-year, $210 million deal last offseason. Like Scherzer at this time last year, Price is age 30 and in the prime of his career.

BEST FITS: Cubs, Giants, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cardinals

Received qualifying offer

Baseball analytics experts and scouts love Heyward and his five tools -- he's the top free agent on many boards -- though some hitting coaches question if he'll be a No. 3 or 4 hitter. There are no questions about him defensively, however; he's the game's best right fielder, as demonstrated by his 104 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) over the past five seasons. He's still only 26, with his prime years likely in front of him, and given his strong makeup and character, he's about as safe a bet as it gets if a team is going to shell out big money.

BEST FITS: Cardinals, Mariners, Yankees, Angels, Orioles, Mets

Received qualifying offer

Upton, a three-time All-Star, has hit at least 25 home runs each of the past three years, can play either outfield corner and is still in the prime of his career at age 28. His right-handed power will be sought after by several teams this offseason, and he deserves to get paid more than Shin-Soo Choo (seven-year, $130 million) and Jacoby Ellsbury (seven-year, $153 million) did in free agency.

BEST FITS: Giants, Orioles, Angels, Padres, Yankees, White Sox, Mariners

According to multiple industry executives who have knowledge of his most recent MRIs, Cueto's medicals should not be an issue in free agency. The way he finished the postseason, with a dominant performance in Game 2 of the World Series while showing a 96 mph fastball and good command and control, merely boosted his value.

BEST FITS: Royals, Giants, Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Reds, Cardinals

Received qualifying offer

He is an 80 out of 80 when it comes to scouting grades on competitiveness, poise and composure, and he would be able to handle the pressure of even the biggest markets. His poor performance in September (4.67 ERA in six starts) will bring up questions about his health, but as in Cueto's case, it's nothing an MRI can't resolve.

BEST FITS: Cubs, Giants, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Red Sox, Astros, Yankees, Cardinals

Cespedes is coming off the best year of his career, posting career highs in slugging percentage (.542), OPS (.870), home runs (35) and RBIs (105), and he just won the AL Gold Glove Award for his strond defensive pla in left field for the Tigers. Cespedes, who has one of the game's strongest arms, can also play center field, though he's below average there. He seems to love the limelight and a big stage, and he can handle the pressure that comes with it.

BEST FITS: Giants, Mets, Orioles, White Sox, Angels, Mariners, Yankees

Received qualifying offer

Davis has more home runs and RBIs -- and strikeouts -- than any player in MLB over the past three years. He's an middle-of-the-order impact hitter who plays an adequate first base and also can play some in right field. The problem for Davis: There aren't many teams looking for a first baseman; and some that are, such as the Pirates and Indians, aren't willing to pay big to get one. He'll do fine signing somewhere, though.

BEST FITS: Orioles, Cardinals, Rockies

Received qualifying offer

Even though he didn't win his fifth consecutive AL Gold Glove award in 2015 -- mostly because he missed so much time with a groin injury -- Gordon is considered the best defensive left fielder in baseball. In fact, he has accumulated 94 DRS in left field since the start of 2011, 34 more than the next-closest left fielder. Oh, and he can hit too (.809 OPS), as well as hit on the big stage.

BEST FITS: Royals, Angels, Rangers, Mariners, Orioles, White Sox, Giants, Padres, Cubs, Astros

Received qualifying offer

Wieters could end up being one of the best free-agent signings of this offseason. If the market doesn't develop because of concerns over him coming all the way back from Tommy John surgery, then a one-year "pillow" contract could be a possibility. However, he's a three-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove award winner who has hit at least 20 home runs three different times. The Angels would be the best fit for him both short term and the long term.

BEST FITS: Angels, White Sox, Braves

Received qualifying offer

Fowler has a .363 lifetime on-base percentage and is coming off a 17-homer, 20-steal season. He was an important table setter for the Cubs this season, and given the thin market of center fielders this offseason, he should do well in free agency. A return to the Cubs would be good for both him and the team.

BEST FITS: Cubs, Nationals, Mariners

Received qualifying offer

Lackey, who recently turned 37, had arguably the best year of his career in 2015, posting the lowest ERA of his career (2.77) while leading the league with 33 games started. He also pitched well in two starts for the Cardinals in the postseason. He'll likely draw the most interest from contending teams who like that he can be signed to a shorter-term deal than most free-agent pitchers due to his age.

BEST FITS: Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Dodgers

Received qualifying offer

Iwakuma is one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball. He isn't considered by many to be a top-tier starter, yet he has a career 3.17 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 47-25 record (.653 winning percentage) in his four MLB seasons. Like Lackey, the shorter-term deal he likely would sign will be inviting to contending teams.

BEST FITS: Mariners, Yankees, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Pirates, Twins, Astros

Received qualifying offer

Desmond reportedly turned down a seven-year, $107 million offer from the Nationals prior to the 2014 season, a decision that, financially, he could regret. He is coming off his worst season since 2011, both offensively and defensively, though he did rebound some in the second half. Nevertheless, he's the best shortstop on the free-agent market and would be a solid fit for the Mets or Padres, among other teams.

BEST FITS: Mets, Padres, White Sox, Athletics

Kazmir sparkled in the first half with the Oakland Athletics (2.38 ERA in 18 starts) but faded some after being traded to the Astros. Given that and his extensive injury history, teams will want to make sure his medicals are clean. If they are, he slots in as the second-best left-handed starter on this market.

BEST FITS: Astros, Cubs, Giants, Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, A's

Received qualifying offer

Well, Samardzija finally won double-digit games for the first time in his career. That's the good news. The bad news: He just had the worst year of his career, including a 4.96 ERA and league-leading totals in hits allowed, earned runs and home runs. His raw stuff has always been better than his actual performance, but this was unexpected, to say the least.

Before I started checking my sources, I figured Samardzija would be a strong candidate to accept the one-year qualifying offer, use that as a pillow contract, try to have a better year, then go back out on the market next fall. But all indications are that teams are lining up to sign him, and the 30-year-old should get a decent long-term deal.

BEST FITS: White Sox, Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, Blue Jays

Leake is a solid No. 3 starter who consistently keeps his ERA under 4, wins double-digit games and pitches about 200 innings per season. And he proved in Cincinnati that no ballpark is too small for him to succeed. He is an athletic pitcher and excels at keeping the ball down in the zone with late life and expanding the plate. That sort of pitcher tends to age well.

BEST FITS: Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Twins, Pirates, Tigers, Cardinals

Received qualifying offer

Gallardo seemed to adapt to pitching in the American League just fine. He is a proven winner (102-75 record in nine seasons) and can be counted for 180 to 200 innings per season. He'll get the long-term deal he has been seeking, and as free agency begins, he's hoping it will be with the Rangers.

BEST FITS: Rangers, Blue Jays, Twins, Pirates, Giants, Tigers

Received qualifying offer

Here's another underrated middle-of-the-rotation starter. Chen has been about as consistent as any lefty starter in baseball over the past two years, posting a solid 3.44 ERA in 62 starts. He's very savvy on the mound, often pitching backward (that is, working counts differently than most pitchers) and owning the black on both sides of the plate. Contending teams looking to improve the back end of their rotation should be all over him this winter.

BEST FITS: Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Tigers, Cardinals

Received qualifying offer

Estrada greatly improved as a pitcher this season, and that led to a breakout season. His cutter was the difference-maker, as it allowed him to keep left-handed hitters off-balance and off the plate; then he was able to put them away with a nasty changeup (which he learned from former first-round pick Clint Everts, by the way). Estrada's makeup and character are off the charts, and I believe his solid performance in 2015 can be counted on going forward.

BEST FITS: Blue Jays, Giants, Pirates, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Cardinals

Every manager in baseball would love to have Zobrist. His ability to play six different positions, at least four of them above average, is enticing to managers, though he's best at second base. Zobrist is also patient at the plate and regularly has good at-bats. And he's well-respected in the clubhouse. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being overpaid due to his many positive qualities.

BEST FITS: Yankees, Royals, Dodgers, Mets, Angels, White Sox, Giants

Received qualifying offer

Murphy's timely postseason tear helped convince the Mets to give him a qualifying offer, and it figures to have many teams looking for his offense. That said, most teams view him more as a first baseman/swingman rather than a full-time second baseman, because of his below-average range and overall defense there.

BEST FITS: Dodgers, Rockies, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Royals

Received qualifying offer

Kendrick took a step backward defensively in 2015 but showed no signs of regression with his bat, his most valuable asset. The Dodgers are not expected to re-sign him, and the market for second basemen is considered weak, so it's tough to determine what interest there will be for him. He could either be a low-priced bargain or a high-priced bust.

BEST FITS: Angels, Yankees, Mets, Royals, Dodgers, Rockies

Span's injury history could hurt his value, but he's still the second-best center fielder on the free-agent market. He's an above-average defender, a solid leadoff hitter and a good leader in the clubhouse.

BEST FITS: Cubs, Nationals, Mariners, Tigers

Received qualifying offer

Rasmus is coming off another typical year for him, belting 25 home runs but with a low OBP (.314) and a high strikeout number (154). He also proved to be a better fit in left field than in center. Rasmus was looking for a multiyear deal last offseason and didn't get one, instead settling for a one-year, $8 million deal. He probably deserves a multiyear deal this time around, though, and I believe he'll get one.

BEST FITS: Astros, Giants, Indians, Royals, Mariners

Received qualifying offer

Here's another guy I think should accept the qualifying offer. That said, Anderson didn't miss a start this season, which is important given his injury history. Teams might be skeptical about him doing it again, but the Dodgers did give the injury-riddled Brandon McCarthy a four-year deal last offseason, and I could see them giving Anderson three years this year.

BEST FITS: Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Pirates, Blue Jays

Happ pitched very well after being acquired by the Pirates, and while some of the credit for that should go to Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage, the strong showing should get Happ a multiyear deal. A return to the Pirates would probably be his best option, for obvious reasons.

BEST FITS: Pirates, Twins, Reds, Blue Jays

Received qualifying offer

Kennedy has made 30 or more starts in six consecutive seasons, and although he's just a shadow of the pitcher he was in 2011, when he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA for the Diamondbacks, he's still a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter.

BEST FITS: Padres, Twins, Pirates, Athletics.

O'Day will be one of the most sought-after free-agent relievers because contending teams like the different look -- particularly the lower arm angle -- he provides among their hard-throwing power guys. The only thing for certain here is O'Day will end up on a contending team that's ready to win now.

BEST FITS: Yankees, Dodgers, Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Astros, Nationals, Giants

Soria's willingness to pitch whenever he's needed -- seventh, eighth or ninth innings -- enhances his value. With so many contending teams trying to be four or five solid relievers deep in the bullpen (like the Royals), Soria probably will end up on a win-now team.

BEST FITS: Yankees, Dodgers, Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Astros, Nationals

Clippard will be in demand because he can close, set up and pitch in multiple innings, and he's extremely tough on left-handed hitters thanks to his changeup, which at times seems unhittable. Clippard did struggle down the stretch for the Mets but that shouldn't be a factor as long as he passes his physicals.

BEST FITS: Yankees, Dodgers, Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Astros, Blue Jays and Nationals

The shortage of left-handed relievers across MLB should get an effective one like Sipp plenty of looks and something approaching the deal above. That's a far cry from where he was as recently as May 2014, when he was released by the Padres.

BEST FITS: Yankees, Dodgers, Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Nationals, Astros, Blue Jays

Jackson has declined defensively the past couple of years, and his bat didn't really progress as expected. Any team that signs him will be doing so probably because it believes he can return to being the player he was from 2010 to 2013 rather than the player we've seen the past two seasons.

BEST FITS: Cubs, Nationals, Mariners, Tigers

Cabrera's 1.8 WAR in 2015 was the highest he has posted since 2012, and he was at least average defensively for the first time in three years. That said, it's pretty clear his value has leveled off, so whereas he should be of interest to multiple teams, he probably won't get to the $10 million he made in 2014.

BEST FITS: Mets, Padres, White Sox, Athletics

Madson had an impressive return after not pitching in the majors from 2012 to 2014 because of injuries; he appeared in 68 games and posted a 2.13 ERA, yielding only 47 hits in 63 1/3 innings. That performance probably was good enough for him to get a multiyear deal.

BEST FITS: Royals, Yankees, Dodgers, Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Astros, Blue Jays

Lowe just had one of the best years of his career, posting a 1.96 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, with 61 K's in 55 innings. With so many teams looking to upgrade their sixth- and seventh-inning relievers, Lowe should earn a multiyear deal.

BEST FITS: Yankees, Dodgers, Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Astros, Blue Jays

Parra hits right-handed pitchers well and could serve as a platoon player, but his best fit is as a team's fourth outfielder, given his ability to play above-average defense in right and left field and fill in in center field.

BEST FITS: Nationals, Padres, Orioles, Angels, A's, Rays

Ramirez is the second-best shortstop in this class (behind Ian Desmond), but he's clearly a player in decline; for instance, his OBP has dropped from .313 in 2013 to .305 in 2014 and .285 this season. He still has some pop, but he's little more than a stopgap shortstop at this point.

BEST FITS: Mets, Padres, White Sox, Athletics

Kelley has been a steady reliever in recent years, but he flourished in 2015 with San Diego, and it wasn't a fluke. He's a sleeper middleman for a team in need of relief depth.

BEST FITS: Yankees, Dodgers, Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Astros, Blue Jays

Freese isn't the star he appeared to be in the 2011 World Series, but he still has value to a team if he can stay healthy (especially his lower half). His range is subpar and he doesn't run well, but he still has some pop (12-15 homers) and a knack for clutch hits. A return to the Angels on a two-year deal probably makes the most sense for him, though a few other teams could be interested.

BEST FITS: Angels, White Sox, Mets, Braves, Brewers, Padres

Aoki has very little pop, but he can still get on base (.353 OBP for both his career and in 2015) and run a little (21 steals in '15, 17 steals this year). He can also make plays in both outfield corner spots despite below-average jumps and angles. His best role is as a fourth outfielder who can step in and hit second in the lineup when the matchup is right.

BEST FITS: Mariners, Royals, Athletics, Angels, Rays, Orioles

Young was terrific for the Royals in both the regular season and the postseason. His 6-foot-10 frame gives him great deception and downward plane, and his slider is much better than most hitters realize. Young, who also is a good clubhouse presence, can really help a contending team as a back-of-rotation starter or middle reliever.

BEST FITS: Royals, Pirates, Blue Jays, Marlins, Diamondbacks

Fister could turn out to be the biggest bargain in this year's FA class. He has had moments of excellence -- including a 16-6 record, 2.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP for the Nationals in 2014 -- but he was a disaster in his 15 starts last season before getting demoted to the bullpen. His value has definitely plummeted, but there's still hope he could bounce back and be a solid starter again. As such, Fister might be best served signing one of those one-year "pillow" contracts to establish his value and hit free agency again next fall.

BEST FITS: Pirates, Twins, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Orioles

Napoli underwent bimaxillary reconstructive surgery last offseason to treat his sleep-apnea problem, and whether it was an adjustment period that resulted from it or simply poor play, his swing just wasn't right until he was traded by the Red Sox to Texas in August. He proceeded to take off, posting a .295/.396/.513 line in 35 regular-season games for the Rangers. His power still plays, but he's now more of a platoon player against southpaws.

BEST FITS: Rangers, Indians, Pirates, White Sox, Rays

Lewis went 17-9 in 2015 despite an inflated 4.66 ERA. At this point, he's just a back-of-a-rotation starter who eats innings and saves bullpens, which figures to have value to some team (maybe the Rangers again?).

BEST FITS: Rangers, Pirates

Colon still has something left in the tank as a back-of-rotation starter or middle reliever/spot starter, as his fastball command remains impeccable. The Mets would like Colon to return, though in more of the middle-relief/spot-start role, and I'm not sure Colon would agree to that.

BEST FITS: Mets, Royals, Tigers

Another sleeper/potential bargain here. Hill joined the Red Sox rotation late in the year and proceeded to mow down opposing hitters in four starts (1.55 ERA. 0.66 WHIP, three 10-K games). The timing could be better for him to have the best four starts of his career.

BEST FITS: Red Sox, Cubs, Royals, Mariners, Brewers, Rockies

Like a few players above him on this list, Young is a solid fourth outfielder; he's capable of playing all three outfield positions well, still has a good power/speed combination and hits lefties well. There's a good chance he'll return to the Yankees.

BEST FITS: Yankees, Giants, Mariners, Nationals

Lincecum is nothing close to the dominant pitcher he was when he won back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2008 and '09. At this point, he's maybe a No. 5 starter or middle reliever/spot-starter type.

BEST FITS: Giants, Athletics, Nationals, Pirates

What in the world has happened to Mat Latos? He was a 4.1 WAR pitcher in 2012 and 3.8 WAR pitcher in 2013, and now he's coming off a platform year that consisted of a negative WAR and a 4.95 ERA while pitching for three different teams. Given his injury history, no team would sign him to a major league contract without doing an MRI on both his shoulder and elbow, but if he's healthy, at least he's young enough to resurrect his career.

BEST FITS: Pirates, Athletics, Brewers