Ranking NFL's surprise teams by sustainability
— -- The four starting quarterbacks from the NFL's conference championship games last season combined for zero touchdown passes with seven interceptions in Week 3. Two of them, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, didn't play. The other two, Cam Newton and Carson Palmer, might wish they hadn't played after what happened Sunday.
The NFL has delivered no shortage of surprises through the first three weeks. The Denver Broncos,? New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles have gone 3-0 with quarterbacks who started zero games for them last season. The Los Angeles Rams have won two straight after an opening-week debacle that made it appear the road from St. Louis to California would lead them to the first overall pick in the 2017 draft.
I've taken these five surprise teams and ranked them by how likely it will be for each to sustain its early success.
1. Patriots go 3-0 with two QBs not named Tom Brady and minimal contributions from all-world TE Rob Gronkowski.
The Patriots are averaging 150.7 yards rushing per game and 4.2 yards per rush, the best totals through Week 3 for any New England team over the past five seasons. Their three-game figures for Total QBR, passer rating, yards per play, third-down conversion rate and offensive points per game rank second among the past five Patriots teams.
That's with Brady and his wife reportedly jetting off to Italy, and with Gronkowski totaling 14 snaps and zero receptions. The Patriots' ability to go 3-0 with victories over Arizona and Houston in particular makes this an all-time great coaching job. The fact that Jimmy Garoppolo leads the NFL in Total QBR, albeit with less than two full games on his r?sum?, adds to the surprise factor.
None of this would seem particularly sustainable over a full season even if Garoppolo and backup Jacoby Brissett were healthy, but Brady's return from suspension in Week 5 gives New England a chance to get even better down the stretch, especially with Gronkowski rounding into form eventually. In the meantime, the Patriots could be entering Week 4 with receiver and emergency quarterback Julian Edelman inching closer toward the top of the QB depth chart -- a fascinating thought for the most adaptable team in the league.
"Everybody in the NFL says they can change their game plans each week, but the Patriots actually do it," a coach with AFC East experience said. "We couldn't change our game plans the way they change theirs literally if our lives depended on it, because we do what we do and we don't have a head coach here 15 years, we don't have a GM that is the head coach, we do not have complete harmony the way they have."
2. Broncos go 3-0 against Carolina, Indianapolis and Cincinnati with Trevor Siemian putting up better numbers than Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Andy Dalton.
Denver's defense was going to make the Broncos competitive regardless, but there was no evidence Siemian would become a viable starting quarterback. That made the Broncos seem overrated to me as championship contenders. Siemian had seven touchdown passes with 11 picks during his final season at Northwestern, after all. He did not light up the preseason. If the Broncos really loved Siemian, they would not have offered starting money to Brock Osweiler, and?they might not have signed Mark Sanchez and traded up to draft Paxton Lynch.
All Siemian did Sunday at Cincinnati in his first road start was top 300 yards passing with four touchdowns on his way to an 87.1 Total QBR score -- the best against the Bengals since the start of last season. It's still too early to know what Siemian will become, but now we know he isn't terrible, which makes the Broncos dangerous again.
Coach Gary Kubiak sticks with the running game more faithfully than offensive-minded head coaches typically do. A strong run commitment plus a top-five defense equals better odds for any quarterback, especially an unestablished one.
"Denver is so powerful on D that they can provide the cover a QB needs to grow," a coach from another team said. "They did it last year when they gave Peyton time to heal -- mentally and physically -- before returning for the playoffs. It is the same concept, different challenge this year."
3. Minnesota Vikings go 3-0 after losing QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Adrian Peterson and LT Matt Kalil
The Vikings were on my preseason underrated list, and I'm possibly underrating them myself by placing them third here. ESPN's Football Power Index has Minnesota favored in 10 of its remaining 13 games, even though Bridgewater is finished for the season and there's no known return date for Peterson. The Vikings held Carolina and Green Bay to 24 combined points over the past two weeks while Sam Bradford was figuring out the offensive playbook.
The Vikings resemble the Broncos, without the playoff pedigree. Both teams have veteran playcallers. Both teams are built to win with defense and abiding commitments to their running games.
"Denver, Carolina and Seattle are the three best defenses in revolving order, but Minnesota is nudging up into there," a veteran coach said. "I still like Denver over Minnesota because they've done it. Being in games where you've beaten Brady twice means a lot, but it is a compelling comparison."
4. Philadelphia Eagles go 3-0 after trading Sam Bradford one week before the regular-season opener
Both the Eagles and Vikings got high marks from league insiders polled regarding the trade sending Bradford from Philly to Minnesota right before the season. But no one could have guessed both teams would be 3-0 at this point. The preseason odds of each team going 3-0, as calculated by FPI, were 12 percent for Philadelphia and 10 percent for Minnesota.
The Eagles were a late scratch from my preseason underrated list because they seemed to be lacking in depth behind a talented core of front-line players, and also had a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback. Carson Wentz's ability to stay healthy for a full season remains a big question mark based on his history, his willingness to invite punishment and what evaluators see as a relative lack of body quickness for avoiding trouble, but what's not to like about Wentz's production so far?
The Eagles have remarkably played three games without committing a turnover; no one else in the league can make that claim. That obviously isn't sustainable.
"What stands out to me is how much better their defensive personnel was for a 4-3 scheme instead of the 3-4 they were running when Chip Kelly was there," a defensive coach said. "You pair that with the fact that Jim Schwartz is a good defensive coach, and they are improved."
5. Los Angeles Rams recover from 28-0 opening-week disaster at San Francisco with victories over Seattle and Tampa Bay
The Rams have won 29 games since Jeff Fisher became their head coach in 2012. They have claimed 10 of those victories against the Seahawks and Buccaneers, including two in the past eight days. Have the Rams turned a corner over the past two weeks, or have they beaten teams they match up well against, for whatever reason?
The quarterback metrics are discouraging. Case Keenum ranks last out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR (25.7) through Sunday.
Sanchez is the only quarterback over the past decade to post a winning record with a season-long QBR score in the 20s. Sanchez did it as a rookie with the New York Jets in 2009, riding a dominant defense and running game to an 8-7 starting record despite a 25.5 QBR. From 2006 to '15, the other 13 quarterbacks with season-long QBRs in the 20s combined to go 43-100 (.301).
The Rams can be good enough on defense to overcome terrible quarterback play some of the time, but it's not a battle any team can win over the long term. The Rams know this and have drafted accordingly, but it's tough to know when No. 1 overall pick? Jared Goff will enter the lineup or how well he'll play once he gets there.
