Ranking the NHL playoff dark horses
— -- As we make our way out of the NHL All-Star break and toward the trade deadline, teams are busy assessing their chances of making the postseason. With many teams on the bubble, the next month or so will shape whether they are buyers or sellers. Heading into February, 12 teams that are sitting on the outside of the race are within just three points of a playoff spot.
Which teams have the best shot at making a run in the next month to force their way into a playoff spot, and which should be testing the market already to deal their spare parts?
Dangerous Eastern Conference teams
Key stat: 59.5 Corsi for per 60 (2nd in NHL)
Technically, the Leafs aren't in the final playoff spot, but they have three games in hand on the Philadelphia Flyers and are only one point behind. Toronto also has a better goal differential and more regulation wins than any of the other Eastern Conference bubble teams. Behind a young, dynamic offensive attack, the Leafs have not only taken more shot attempts than everyone in the East outside of Boston, but also have scored the seventh most goals per 60 minutes of any team in the NHL. If not for a 1-6 record in shootouts, Mike Babcock's team would be secure in a postseason slot.
Key stat: .915 even-strength save percentage (24th)
The Lightning haven't been playing as well as expected at either end of the ice, ranking 19th in goals for per 60 minutes at even strength, and 26th in goals against. Improvements at both ends should be on the way if Tampa Bay keeps battling. They are taking more shot attempts than their opponents, ranking ninth in the NHL in Corsi for percentage, but 20th in shooting percentage, so a jump in goal scoring could be on the way if the Lightning see more puck luck. Goaltenders Ben Bishop and Andrei Vasilevskiy are also likely to improve as both have historically performed much better than their numbers this season.
Key stat: 2.67 goals for per 60 (6th)
Gaining points in eight of their last 10 games, the Isles aren't going quietly. While fans were frustrated to see the likes of Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen walk last offseason, New York has found ways to create offense, even without much contribution from winger Andrew Ladd, who was ostensibly brought in to replace them. In goal, Thomas Greiss was given the reins after Jaroslav Halak struggled and he is proving to be a legitimate starter, posting a .928 save percentage. Both Greiss and the Isles' offense will have to stay hot to have any chance at the playoffs. But, things are trending in the right direction given that the team was in the Eastern Conference basement earlier this season.
Key stat: 22.5 percent on the power play (6th)
The Sabres have had two "seasons" this campaign: Before Jack Eichel returned from injury, and after Jack Eichel returned from injury. Without their former No. 2 overall pick, Buffalo won just seven of 22 games to start the season. Since he came back, the Sabres are 13-10-4. In the process, Eichel has 12 goals in 27 games and is averaging an incredible 4.2 shots per game, which is Alex Ovechkin territory.
Eastern Conference long shots
Key stat: 5.9 percent even-strength shooting percentage (30th)
After an offseason of big moves, the only noise the Panthers have made is firing the head coach who led them to an Atlantic Division title last season. Built on the theory of controlling the puck, Florida is still getting out-shot at even strength, ranking 18th in shots for per 60 minutes. Some bad luck has certainly been at play as the Panthers have lost 10 games in overtime and shootout, the NHL's most, and has the league's lowest shooting percentage -- though it's worth wondering whether luck or strategy is to blame. A turnaround is still possible if the Panthers find some of the offensive game that ranked No. 2 in even-strength scoring per 60 minutes last season.
Key stat: 2.72 goals against per 60 (29th)
For years, the Hurricanes have controlled the shot counter but haven't scored many goals or won many games. Nothing is new this season, as they rank fourth in the NHL in Corsi for percentage and 17th in goals for per 60. But the biggest problem in Carolina is the confounding move to bring back goalie Cam Ward. There hasn't been a more baffling love affair in hockey than the one between Hurricanes management and Ward, who hasn't posted an above-average save percentage since 2011-12, yet somehow continues to start games.
Key stat: minus-27 goal differential (26th)
Detroit remains on the margins of the playoff race only because of shootouts. They are 6-0 in the breakaway contest, but have only won 14 games in regulation and sit 22nd in the NHL in Corsi for percentage, dead last in power play percentage and 21st in 5-on-5 save percentage. "Long shot" is putting it politely, unless something drastic happens.
Key stat: 46.7 Corsi for percentage (28th)
You won't find better evidence that one player does not a hockey team make. While it's hard to dispute that the Devils got the better player in the Taylor Hall trade, the Devils' forward group is very top-heavy, and their defense is now one of the weakest in the NHL after sending Adam Larsson away in the Hall deal. It would take a long run of miracle performances from goalie Cory Schneider to get New Jersey back in the race.
Dangerous Western Conference teams
Key stat: 25.2 shots against per 60 (1st)
The Kings are up to their old tricks, dominating the shot counter while posting unimpressive goal totals. They rank second in the NHL in Corsi for percentage, but 22nd in goals for per 60. Los Angeles's team defense is so stifling to opponents that if their offense got hot for a stretch, we could see a dominant run into and through the playoffs. In order for that to happen, however, the Kings will need much more out of their depth scoring.
Key stat: .930 even-strength save percentage (7th)
What a bizarre season it has been in Dallas. The team has a top-10 5-on-5 save percentage but ranks far-and-away dead last in short-handed save percentage. Unlike last season, goaltending is probably not the major issue. But the Stars aren't scoring at a rate anywhere near their rate from 2015-16, and their special teams have been atrocious. Still, with only a three-point deficit, Dallas has the Star power to make the postseason, and be a tough out once there.
Western Conference long shots
Key stat: 2.54 goals against per game (27th)
This was supposed to be the season that the Jets got their goaltending situation sorted out, but 23-year-old Connor Hellebuyck sputtered out of the gate and backup Michael Hutchinson couldn't stop the bleeding, winning just four of 15 starts. Winnipeg's offensive attack isn't as deep as expected, and will have a tough time bailing them out.
Key stat: 19 regulation wins (24th)
Another team whose standing is smoke and mirrors because of the NHL's wonky point system. Four shootout wins have boosted the Canucks into contention, but by every other statistical measure, they shouldn't be in the race. They are 22nd in goals for percentage, 21st in Corsi for percentage and 15th in save percentage (all situations). Vancouver management shouldn't be fooled into thinking they have a chance to make a playoff run, and should see what kind of picks or prospects they can land at the trade deadline.
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