The real reason the Suns didn't succeed under Earl Watson
— -- How do the Phoenix Suns get their rebuild back on track after firing head coach Earl Watson on Sunday in the wake of the worst start in NBA history?
While the Suns losing their first three games by a combined 92 points (the worst point differential ever to start a season by a wide margin, according to Basketball-Reference.com) cost Watson his job, the underlying culprit was the stalled development of Phoenix's young core. The Suns' series of high draft picks during their eight seasons in the lottery has yet to yield many players who can be part of the next great Phoenix team.
Can interim head coach Jay Triano, or whoever comes next, do a better job of helping the Suns' prospects make good on their potential?
Phoenix getting little from picks
Since the Suns hired Ryan McDonough as GM in 2013, they've added six players with lottery picks, a total exceeded only by the Philadelphia 76ers (seven) in that span. Yet Phoenix's seven total first-round picks under McDonough have done little to help the team win.
(Though Marquese Chriss was technically drafted by the Sacramento Kings, the pick was made by Phoenix as part of a prearranged trade.)
So far, just three of McDonough's seven first-round picks have rated better than replacement level by my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric, and none has contributed even three WARP in his career.
The situation isn't quite as bad as those numbers imply. Booker in particular has impressed far more by the eye test than advanced metrics, in large part because of his ability to create shots at high volume for a player who won't reach legal drinking age until later this month. Booker averaged 22.1 points per game in his second season, though his middling efficiency and poor defensive metrics meant he rated worse than replacement.
It's also much too early to cast a verdict on any of the players drafted after Booker. Chriss and Bender are three games into their second season; Chriss is 20 while Bender is still 19 for another month. And Jackson has played just three games in the NBA.
Nonetheless, what's troubling is the lack of development this group has made. Five seasons into his career, Len -- who signed his one-year qualifying offer this summer is a restricted free agent -- is still the inconsistent interior presence he has been since his sophomore campaign. Warren has become an effective scorer but hasn't filled out his game enough to be a quality starter. Yet he's still moved into the starting five at forward alongside Jackson, replacing Chriss, whose minutes have gone down from 21.3 per game as a rookie to 15.3 so far this season.
More than anything else, the Suns' youngsters have proven incapable of defending at an NBA level. That weakness has been exposed during Phoenix's 0-3 start.
Defense proves Watson's undoing
When the Suns picked Watson to replace Jeff Hornacek in February 2016, he inherited a team that was already terrible defensively. Under Hornacek, Phoenix had the NBA's 29th-best defense, allowing 106.6 points per 100 possessions per NBA.com/Stats. The Suns were slightly more competitive on D the rest of the way, improving to 23rd in defensive rating.
Any improvement proved short-lived. Phoenix dropped back to 28th defensively last season, Watson's only full season as head coach, and was dead last in the league with a ghastly 116.6 defensive rating through this season's three opening losses. Nobody else in the NBA is allowing more than 112 points per 100 possessions. The Suns' dismal defense produced a pair of blowout losses (by 48 to the Portland Trail Blazers at home in their season opener and by 42 in L.A. against the Clippers on Saturday night) and prevented Phoenix from winning when its offense did produce in a high-scoring 132-130 loss to the L.A. Lakers on Friday.
No defense is as bad as the Suns' has been so far this season, meaning improvement is inevitable thanks to simple regression to the mean. Still, if improving defensively is a priority, Triano -- previously the team's associate head coach -- is a curious choice. During Triano's two full seasons as a head coach for the Toronto Raptors, the team finished last in defensive rating both times.
Of course, the other assistant to Watson with any head-coaching experience was Tyrone Corbin, and his last Utah Jazz team finished -- you guess it -- last in the league in defensive rating. So perhaps Phoenix would be wise to look outside the organization for a veteran assistant with a stronger defensive track record.
Next steps for Triano, Suns
Besides defensive improvement, the other focus for Triano should be the continued growth of the young players who can be part of Phoenix's core. Bender and Chriss should be focal points. The Suns need to figure out whether they can play together -- efforts to develop Bender as a small forward alongside Chriss as a power forward have been ineffective -- and whether either is the long-term answer at power forward.
The big question for McDonough is the future of point guard Eric Bledsoe, who cryptically tweeted, "I Don't wanna be here" earlier Sunday. The time is right to trade Bledsoe, who has one season beyond 2017-18 on his value contract. (Bledsoe makes $14.5 million this season and $15 million in 2018-19.) Alas, the market might not be there to get value for Bledsoe right now, and Phoenix will have to hope a team becomes desperate for a point guard by the trade deadline.
The Suns' front office was wise to embrace "the timeline" for rebuilding the roster this summer, avoiding overpaying for veterans via trade or free agency. Still, Phoenix has surprisingly little financial flexibility after signing Warren to a four-year, $50 million extension. Including team options, non-guarantees and a projected lottery pick (plus a protected pick from the Miami Heat), the Suns actually figure to be over the cap next summer.
Phoenix is projected to have more cap space in the summer of 2019, when contracts for veterans Bledsoe, Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley expire. To become a player for top free agents, however, the Suns will have to show them a young core capable of competing in the Western Conference. So far, that group doesn't exist. The rest of this season will help show whether Watson was holding Phoenix's young talent back or the Suns simply don't have the right prospects in place.
Related Stories
ABC News Live