Rest of D-Wade's career looks like Kobe's, and that should scare Miami
— -- When the Miami Heat look into their crystal ball and try to plot the future of Dwyane Wade, what will they see?
It might be Kobe Bryant. And that's not necessarily a good thing.
Bryant is a five-time champion, one of the best ever to step on the hardwood. But Bryant also offers a cautionary tale about star shooting guards entering their mid-30s.
Wade will turn 34 years old next season. What did Bryant do in his age-34 season? He averaged 27.3 points per game next to Dwight Howard while playing a whopping 38.6 minutes a night. In the 80th game that season, Bryant's Achilles tendon snapped.
That was just the beginning of Bryant's injury ills. After an arduous rehab, Bryant returned in December the next season and played all of six games before suffering a season-ending fracture in his left knee. Last season, he lasted 35 games before a shoulder injury ended his age-36 campaign in January.
Who is Wade's closest statistical comparison at this point in his career? That name is Bryant, according to ESPN Insider guru Kevin Pelton's statistical model called SCHOENE, which analyzes 13 factors (including age, height and weight) to create a nifty similarity score. The 2012 Bryant was the best match, registering a 96 similarity score (100 is a carbon copy) to this current version of Wade.
And after looking at several other historical comps for Wade, the message is clear for the Heat: go long on Wade at your own risk.
Wade's tough situation
Wade's free-agency case is a tricky one. He is the face of the Heat organization. With a franchise-high 18,812 career points, Wade has scored more in a Miami uniform than the next two-highest Heat players combined (Alonzo Mourning and Glen Rice). To top it all off, he has been a superstar on all three of the team's titles.
And he has made some financial sacrifices. Remarkably, he has never been the team's highest-paid player. He took less than the max in 2010 to bring in LeBron James and Chris Bosh. Last summer, he effectively took a $5 million pay cut after he opted out of his contract to give the Heat flexibility and then signed for significantly fewer bucks.
And now he wants his money back. The problem is -- from purely a basketball value standpoint -- that might not be a wise investment. Wade averaged 21.5 points per game last season, but saw his efficiency tumble to a 53.4 percent true shooting percentage, down from 58.8 percent in 2013-14. Not only that, Wade has had trouble staying healthy, missing 20 games in 2014-15 and 28 the season prior.
After a shaky season from a health perspective, Wade isn't in a position of leverage.
The SCHOENE comps
So, let's cut to the chase. Pelton's projection system that blends both WARP and RPM metrics says Wade will have a solid season in 2015-16, but then will fall off fast. The gory numbers: a 5.1-win season in 2015-16, 1.2 wins in 2016-17 and then a drop into the negative with a minus-0.8 win estimate for the 2017-18 season when he will be 36. It's a similar tale to Bryant's.
Indeed, Bryant is by far Wade's closest comp with a 96 rating, but he isn't the only similar player. His other four by SCHOENE standards -- Andre Miller (93.1), Sam Cassell (93.1), Stephen Jackson (92.1) and Michael Jordan (92.0) -- experienced varying trajectories at this point in their careers. Miller is barely holding on without a 3-point shot. Cassell made his first and only All-Star team at age 34 and then bounced between the bench and the starting lineup until he was 38. Jackson washed out at 34 and Jordan left the game shortly after his 34th birthday (and then came back four years later for a different organization).
In the chart below, you can see the WARP totals by season for Wade's closest comps. To clarify, Wade's 2014-15 season would be his Year 0. As you can tell at the bottom row, the average WARP falls sharply in Years 2 and 3.
Not sold on the names that SCHOENE drew up? We can look at some other go-to wing scorers. Dominique Wilkins was a shell of himself after his age-34 season. Clinging to his 3-point shot, Clyde Drexler made the All-Star team in his age-34 season, but missed 20 games before hanging it up for good after his age-35 season. Allen Iverson, another star who made a living drawing contact? Technically out of the league at 34, but the writing was on the wall well before that.
What it means for the Heat
By all indications, the Heat want to take care of their own. But going beyond a one-year deal with Wade is a huge risk given the worrisome history of ball-dominant wing scorers. Using a sample of the 13 players who registered a similarity score north of 90, production declined 23 percent after Year 1 and a total of 52 percent after Year 2. Evidently, Father Time comes at you fast.
However, if the Heat have commitment issues, they can still take care of Wade in the short term with a max contract. Because of salary-cap rules, Wade is eligible for a $22 million contract for the 2015-16 season, which would help make up for Wade's contract shortfall last summer and allow Wade to return to the market for the massive spike in the salary cap.
Not only would a max one-year deal do Wade a solid, it would keep the cap sheet relatively clean for the summer of 2016 free-agency bonanza. But that doesn't come without a gargantuan tax bill for Heat owner Micky Arison.
As expertly outlined by salary-cap guru Albert Nahmad of HeatHoops.com, the Heat would be exposed to the repeater tax hammer that kicks in after a team pays the luxury tax in four of the previous five years. Goran Dragic saved Arison some cash by verbally agreeing to a five-year, $90 million contract instead of the $108 million he was eligible for. If the Heat maxed both Wade and Dragic, the Heat could have been looking at a luxury tax bill of $58 million on top of a $100 million payroll.
They likely will be spared from that CBA guillotine. Depending on where the 2015-16 salary cap officially lands after the moratorium ends July 9, the Heat will still nudge up near the luxury tax line. They won't want to go over, but they might have to if they're going to keep the core together.
The question is whether Arison, one of the most successful owners in the sport, will have the stomach (and the hard cash) to sign on the dotted line to take care of Wade and a pay luxury tax for a team that basically hasn't played together before. Remember, Dragic hasn't played with Bosh or Josh McRoberts, two key pieces to the Heat's core who suffered season-ending injuries last season.
As a free agent, Wade has every right to want a three-year deal that will lock in long-term security. He can knock on the doors of the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks to see if they'd be willing to offer him a monster multiyear deal. And, hey, the Milwaukee Bucks, who have Wade's Marquette jersey hanging in the rafters at the Bradley Center, will have cap space too.
But more than likely, the Heat are the only team that can offer him the tempting trifecta of a big payday, a starring role and a winning roster. Bryant is still searching for that last item. Wade can lock in all three. Just maybe not for the long haul. Yet.
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