Rory McIlroy's return to golf now up in the air after Open WD

ByJASON SOBEL
July 8, 2015, 2:01 PM

— -- Golf tournaments -- especially major championship golf tournaments -- rarely go the way most of us think they will. There are too many variables, too many potential stumbling blocks at every turn. It's what makes them especially unpredictable and abundantly fun. The great unknown is a hell of an attention-grabber.

Every once in a while, though, we can get some inkling of what might happen, of how it will all shake out. A window into the tournament's soul, if you will.

Before the recent news that Rory McIlroy had ruptured a ligament in his left ankle playing soccer with friends, the upcoming Open Championship was one of these times. Sure, the festivities at St. Andrews would have Jordan Spieth attempting to claim a third leg of the Grand Slam, and a bevy of contenders from Dustin Johnson to Henrik Stenson to Bubba Watson all entering on varying high notes.

Even two-time champion at this Open site Tiger Woods finally reached an uptick in his performance level. But it was difficult to look at the year's third major and not see the venerable links as a clear path toward McIlroy's fifth career major title.

Five years ago, he posted rounds of 63-80-69-68 at the Old Course, his bid undone by heavy winds in the second round, though still leaving him in a share of third place when all was said and done. Last year, he finally -- if "finally" can be the right term for a then-25-year-old -- won the Claret Jug. And this year seemed to be set up for more of the same.

A course he loves. A tournament he loves. McIlroy hadn't quite peaked at the majors this year and he has shown a propensity for playing his best golf during the second half of the summer.

He might've won by eight strokes next week, a number he has reached twice before at majors. Or he might've found too many variables, too many stumbling blocks to make The Open as predictable as we might have thought.

We'll never know now. On Wednesday, McIlroy announced via his personal Instagram account that he won't rush back to competition and will indeed miss next week's tournament.

The quick takeaway here is that his injury must be worse than originally thought. On Monday, when he first announced that he'd gotten hurt, McIlroy left open the possibility of still competing next week. It's telling, though, that rather than attempt to rest and rehab and see how it felt, he opted to withdraw eight days ahead of the opening round.

All of which should have us questioning his return beyond next week.

Not only was he scheduled to defend at The Open, but McIlroy's successful summer last year also leaves him as the defending champion at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and PGA Championship, which are four and five weeks away, respectively.

Perhaps he feels that by eschewing this first title defense, he'll have a better opportunity to be fully healthy for the other two -- and if so, that's perfectly sensible.

When he does return, when he's faced with questions that don't materialize on an Instagram post, McIlroy will be asked about the susceptibility to injury when engaging in activities other than what's gotten him to No. 1 in the world.

The Northern Irishman has always been an honest sort, and so it's certainly feasible that he'll admit he was at fault and won't be quite as reckless in the future -- especially not before major championships. Or maybe it will be that honesty that leaves him denying susceptibility, instead claiming that he easily could have suffered the same injury walking down a flight of stairs.

In the meantime, these are the issues that will be discussed and debated during his absence.

There's a chance that The Open might never have been McIlroy's title to win, that the unpredictable nature of tournament golf could have gotten the best of him. But there's also the chance that his overall major victory total will forever be one number fewer than it should have been.

Next week was all set up for McIlroy to win a fifth career major title. Instead, The Open will become eminently unpredictable once again.