First-round success means something different for all 16 teams

ByABC News
April 23, 2016, 3:23 PM

— -- Every team in the NBA playoffs would love to hold the Larry O'Brien Trophy in June. But let's face it: In a league where 32 games separated the top seed from the 8-seed in the West, and where the top seed was 13 games better than the 8-seed in the East, some teams aren't necessarily playing for the same thing.

With that in mind, we asked our 16 writers to answer: What does first-round success look like for each team in the 2016 playoffs?

Western Conference

Golden State Warriors (No. 1 seed)

First-round success is five games or fewer. Although the 73-win Warriors feel pinched by getting Game 1 on Saturday (as opposed to a Sunday spot they assumed was waiting), they traditionally have dominated the Rockets. Don't be surprised, though, if Houston peels a game or two off this series, as the Warriors tend to stumble a bit when complacent. If they're locked in, this series should be a sweep. Six games is a crime, and five games is forgivable. -- Ethan Sherwood Strauss

Houston Rockets (No. 8 seed)

How competitive the Rockets are in this series might determine the future of interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Houston's front office will evaluate Bickerstaff once the season ends, and while it likes him, the Rockets have a lot to overcome. Houston has lost 11 of the past 12 meetings with Golden State dating to the start of last season. Golden State also set an NBA single-season mark with 34 road wins this season. Oh yeah, the Warriors have Stephen Curry and  Draymond Green, and just set the league record for regular-season wins. Houston needs to get Dwight Howard involved more often in the offense to help James Harden. If that occurs, you might have a competitive series. -- Calvin Watkins

San Antonio Spurs (No. 2 seed)

San Antonio hasn't put together a complete Spurs-like performance since a March 23 victory against the Miami Heat. Immediately after that game, the Spurs -- having clinched no worse than the No. 2 seed by March 25 -- started to rest players in preparation for the postseason. Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said his primary concerns going into the playoffs hinged on resting players -- but making sure they stayed in condition -- while simultaneously trying to keep them in a strong rhythm. Popovich accomplished the rest part, but the team has since been out of sync. This series against a wounded Memphis squad provides the perfect opportunity for the Spurs to find the rhythm Popovich seeks. -- Michael Wright

Memphis Grizzlies (No. 7 seed)

For a beat-up team that Vegas tabs as 500-to-1 underdogs to survive the first round, one win against the Spurs would be gravy. Memphis might not have even made the playoffs if the season were a week longer. Coach Dave Joerger's roster has been a turnstile of 28 names since opening night. Even though the rotation now features Xavier Munford rather than Mike Conley, and JaMychal Green instead of Marc Gasol, the Grindhouse effort remains intact. Memphis will try to uglify its way to a repeat of 2011, when as an 8-seed it shocked the top-seeded Spurs. -- Bradford Doolittle

Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 3 seed)

Few teams know the importance of health in the postseason like the Thunder. Russell Westbrook's knee injury in the opening round in 2013 derailed an otherwise promising season. Serge Ibaka's calf injury put them in a hole in the West finals in 2014. And last season, Kevin Durant's foot injury kept them out altogether. The matchup with the Mavs appears pretty cut and dry -- the Thunder were 4-0 against them this season -- and while advancing is the obvious goal, staying whole is almost equally crucial. -- Royce Young

Dallas Mavericks (No. 6 seed)

It'd be a monumental upset for the Mavericks to eliminate the third-seeded Thunder. That's not a realistic measure for Mavs success. Can Dallas make this series competitive? Can it push it to six or seven games? It's probably not wise to completely count out a team coached by Rick Carlisle, even though the "Masking Tape Mavs" -- as Carlisle dubbed his injury-riddled team -- are overmatched athletically. Remember in 2014, Carlisle's wizardry was critical to the 8-seed Mavs somehow pushing the eventual champion Spurs to seven games in the first round. -- Tim MacMahon

Los Angeles Clippers (No. 4 seed)

There was a time when just making the playoffs, let alone winning a playoff series, was viewed as a success for the Clippers. After all, we're talking about a franchise with only one playoff series win from 1977 to 2011. But the Clippers have made the playoffs in each of the past five seasons and have advanced past the first round in three of the past four years. So the meaning of success has changed. Yes, making it out of the first round is important, but finding a way to stay healthy and getting to the conference finals for the first time in franchise history is the real measure of success. -- Arash Markazi

Portland Trail Blazers (No. 5 seed)

No team in the 2016 NBA playoffs is playing with more house money than the Trail Blazers. They were pegged by Las Vegas in the preseason for 26.5 wins, but finished with 44 and a No. 5 seed in the hypercompetitive West. As general manager Neil Olshey told ESPN.com in February, guards Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum could suit up with three random players from the local gym and win 20 games. Fortunately for the young backcourt, their running mates were an assortment of young journeymen like Al-Farouq Aminu and Ed Davis, who had stellar seasons. The Trail Blazers are a steep underdog against the Clippers, and any respectful showing that pushes the series to six or seven games would constitute a solid out for Portland, which is a couple of years ahead of its rebuilding schedule. -- Kevin Arnovitz

Eastern Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 1 seed)

Considering LeBron James has never lost a first-round series -- a perfect 10-0 in his career thus far -- and hasn't even lost a first-round game since May 9, 2012 (against the New York Knicks), beating the Detroit Pistons should be a given for the Cavaliers. Success for the Cavs will come down to the way they win -- how they continue to ramp up the defense, the manner in which they find an offensive flow between James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. And of course, the true measure of success will be getting out of the first round with everybody healthy. That wasn't the case last year, when Love's shoulder was dislocated in Cleveland's close-out game against Boston. -- Dave McMenamin

Detroit Pistons (No. 8 seed)

The Pistons made it this far, which is already a success -- a win or two against LeBron & Co. would be a bonus. This series allows players such as Andre Drummond and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to get some playoff experience under their belts and feel how different these games are compared to the regular season. The series will be defined by the emotional growth that Stan Van Gundy's young core makes together. This is the first step in a process that should continue to vault Detroit toward the top half of the Eastern Conference. -- Nick Friedell

Toronto Raptors (No. 2 seed)

After they fell in a thrilling seven-game series to Brooklyn in 2014 and were unceremoniously swept by Washington in 2015, success for the Raptors in Round 1 would mean finally getting to Round 2. For that to happen, "Skinny Kyle Lowry" needs to be healthy and productive. He averaged only 12 points on 32 percent shooting against the Wizards last postseason, but hopefully his recently sore right elbow is fine after some rest and he plays like the All-NBA point guard he was during the regular season (21.2 PPG, 6.4 APG, 4.7 RPG). -- Mike Mazzeo

Indiana Pacers (No. 7 seed)

For much of his playoff career, Paul George had players such as David West, Roy Hibbert and even Lance Stephenson to help him out as the Pacers moved up in the Eastern Conference. This is the first time in his career that George is entering the playoffs not having one of those players to lean on. George needs help from rookie forward Myles Turner (10.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG) in the frontcourt and from veteran guards George Hill (12.1) and Monta Ellis (13.8), because George will be counted on to score and defend Raptors All-Star DeMar DeRozan (23.5 PPG). George's 16.3 points on 30.8 percent shooting in the four regular-season meetings against the Raptors was his second-lowest scoring average against an Eastern Conference team this season. -- Mike Wells

Miami Heat (No. 3 seed)

Among the four teams knotted in the middle of the East playoff standings with 48-34 records, the Heat and Hawks emerged with tiebreakers that granted them home-court advantage in the first round. For No. 3 seed Miami, especially, opening at home against No. 6 seed Charlotte is vital. No other team in the postseason has two rookies playing more essential rotation roles than the Heat, who rely on steady production from Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson in their respective 20-plus minutes off the bench. The two combined to shoot 46.7 percent at home this season compared to just 41.2 percent on the road. Having that extra game at AmericanAirlines Arena to calm their nerves could be the tipping point in an evenly matched series. -- Michael Wallace

Charlotte Hornets (No. 6 seed)

Can you name the Hornets' best player? Charlotte is the only team in the playoffs, when elite-level talent rises to the forefront, without a single career All-Star appearance on its roster and has gotten seven games this season from its highest-drafted player, former No. 2 pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Throw in long-range acumen (tied for seventh in 3-point percentage), scrappy defense (ninth-best defensive efficiency) and the small market, and the Hornets look like the sort of trendy upset pick that would warm Kemba Walker's heart. Pushing the slick, star-friendly Heat to the limit would receive a standing ovation; a series win would validate Steve Clifford as one of the league's best coaching minds. -- Justin Verrier

Atlanta Hawks (No. 4 seed)

The Atlanta Hawks entered the postseason last year looking to prove that they were as good as their East-leading 60 victories. This year, the Hawks still have something to prove -- that they are better than their fourth-place record in the East and that they can make another run to the conference finals. This could be a final run for the team that took the East by surprise a year ago. At the trade deadline, Atlanta considered breaking up its core but ultimately held on to Jeff Teague and Al Horford. The Hawks can start to regain some of last season's magic if they can get past Boston, a team some consider a dark horse in the East. -- Ohm Youngmisuk

Boston Celtics (No. 5 seed)

From the start of the 2015-16 season, Celtics players said their primary goal was to build off what they accomplished last season. That meant getting back to the playoffs and -- after getting swept by the Cavaliers last year -- being more competitive in the opening round of the playoffs. Winning 48 games is a nice step, but showing that Brad Stevens and this young core can be competitive in the postseason would absolutely help Boston's cause when free agency opens in July (the pitch to a star: Imagine what's possible with you as the centerpiece of this team). And if Boston bows out early, there's always the silver lining of that Brooklyn pick that will have a 15.6 percent chance at being No. 1 and a 46.9 percent chance of being top-three. -- Chris Forsberg