Search firm: Who should Tennessee hire to replace Butch Jones?

— -- For the fourth time in the past decade, Tennessee is in the market for a new coach. Butch Jones is out midway through his fifth season with the Vols, who are 4-6 overall and 0-6 in the SEC this season. Jones finishes 34-27 (14-24 in SEC play) with a pair of nine-win seasons but no SEC East championships.

Jones undoubtedly improved the program, which had bottomed out under Derek Dooley. He brought in heralded recruiting classes and ended an 11-game losing streak to Florida. But he couldn't take the next step and backslid this season.

Vols fans want to make a big splash with Jones' successor. Where does Tennessee turn, and just how good is this job? ESPN's search firm is on the case.

Senior staff writer Chris Low, who has covered Tennessee for more than two decades, and staff writer Alex Scarborough, who has years of experience covering the SEC, join me to break down what's next on Rocky Top.

Where the Tennessee job stands

Adam Rittenberg: I've been getting a lot of questions from coaches and agents as to just how good this job is at Tennessee. Jones clearly improved the program, but there's some concern about the turnover they've gone through in Knoxville and the negativity around that program. There's definitely a curiosity about where this job ranks, especially with some of the other jobs that could open in the SEC.

Chris Low: It's probably fifth or sixth in the SEC. The fan base has a very myopic view of that job and that program. If you look at Tennessee football over the past 40, 50 years, it has averaged about eight wins a year. But clearly the expectation of the fan base there is to win 10-plus every year. Outside John Majors' last couple of years and Phillip Fulmer's run, they've been about an eight, eight-and-a-half win team. The talent level has become better in that state, but you're still way behind Louisiana, Georgia, Florida. It's good that they have resources. The facilities are outstanding. But the leadership has been awful. There's no way to sugarcoat it. It's the epitome of change and turnover. Over the past decade, what Tennessee has really done well is turn over chancellors, presidents, athletic directors, football coaches, basketball coaches and baseball coaches. There's a reason for that. It means your external and internal leadership hasn't been real strong.

Alex Scarborough: The turnover and the constant change is what's keeping it from being one of the best jobs in the SEC. You talk to coaches and agents, the one thing they always want is a clear line between president, athletic director and coach. If you can get those things on the same page, you're going to be in a good position, and Tennessee simply hasn't had that. There's opportunity in that job because you don't have to go in there asking for money to improve facilities. They're already there, the stadium's there and the SEC East is still a mess. Georgia might be in a much better place now than it was a year ago, but Florida is still in flux. There's opportunity in that division and a fan base that, while they're on edge right now, if somebody can come in there and rally them, there's no doubt they're going to show up. Yeah, they won eight games pretty consistently and fans are still upset, but it's not the number of wins. It's the lack of big-time wins. You look at the wins against ranked opponents the past four, five years, it's pathetic. If you can get a coach in there who can change that, it's going to change the whole outlook.

Low: They've got a new chancellor and AD. You've got an AD in John Currie who has never hired a head football coach, and he has had issues with coaches in the past: Bill Snyder, Frank Martin, Fulmer, David Cutcliffe. There's always two sides to every story, but I don't know whether, if coaches call those guys about Currie, they'll get glowing recommendations about working for him. That said, Currie has a good reputation among his peers in the athletic director world. He has been very successful in raising money. When they were winning championships and they were a top-10 program, the common denominators were a strong president in Joe Johnson, a strong AD in Doug Dickey and, for 30-plus years, two football coaches in Majors and Fulmer, both Tennessee guys.

Rittenberg: I want to get back to recruiting because it's an area where Jones thrived. He really elevated it, especially midway through his tenure, but I wonder how tough of a job it is to recruit because you have only so many players in the state. I'd worry about what's going on at Georgia, which is finally reaching its potential as a recruiting heavyweight, along with Clemson. Coaches in the ACC have told me Tennessee has done really well in the Carolinas. But with Clemson rising, that's becoming harder. You obviously have a lot to recruit to there, but there are still challenges.

Scarborough: I don't see it as a huge hurdle. In that coveted four-hour radius, they were able to get a bunch of good players:? Derek Barnett, Joshua Dobbs, Alvin Kamara. There's enough to go around. I don't think it's ideal like Louisiana, but it's not a hurdle you can't overcome when you have the facilities and fan base that they do. Georgia is the elephant in the room, but frankly, anywhere in the Power 5 you go, there's going to be a big dog in your division.

What Tennessee wants

Rittenberg: You don't fire Butch Jones, even with all the stuff that has gone on there, and hire some coordinator or some Group of 5 coach, at least not as your first choice. You have to try to swing for the fences, and we know how hard that is, but the fan base is thirsty for a proven, big-name coach who can get it excited right away. I don't know how realistic that is, but somebody with Power 5 head-coaching experience and somebody who can handle that environment. Someone who is mentally tough, who is not afraid of the spotlight.

Low: Tennessee is past winning the media conference. It needs the best football coach, the most proven football coach; a guy who knows how to recruit in the South and can surround himself with people who know how to recruit in the SEC. To your point about the Carolinas, when they won the national championship in 1998, three of their four starters on the defensive line were from the Carolinas, and three of their best players were from Georgia: Cosey Coleman, Deon Grant, Jamal Lewis. You've got to be able to get those kinds of players in the neighboring states. They need a guy who's a proven difference-maker, and that's easier said than done.

Scarborough: I wonder if they'll be swayed by how the "offensive coaches" have not fared as well in the SEC lately, and if they'll look at Kirby Smart or even Will Muschamp and think about a defensive guy. But they need a proven, stable coach, and just as importantly, you've got to put the money up to have those coordinators and assistant coaches, who are going to be the boots on the ground recruiting. Even if you don't hire a guy who isn't known as a recruiter, you can overcome that with a good staff. That's another thing worth watching, the overall amount of money they're willing to put toward the program, not just the head coach.

Low: Go back and look at how many championships they won when Fulmer, Cutcliffe and John Chavis were together. And this goes back to my myopic comment, but the fan base wanted to break those guys up most of their last five, six years together. They said they wanted somebody new, that they were stale. You've got to be careful what you wish for.

Rittenberg: The key word is stable. I agree, Chris, that you don't have to win the first media conference, but you have to handle yourself better in moments of adversity than Jones did.

Scarborough: The thing that worries me is how they handle the coaching search. If they start leaking names like Jon Gruden and Mike Gundy and Dan Mullen and wind up with a Greg Schiano or a non-Power 5 head coach, you get into a position where the fan base is already lukewarm, and you cut him off at the knees before he's ever started. We've seen that at Texas with Charlie Strong. I worry about an already-volatile fan base seeing a second-choice kind of hire, and you guys have chronicled very well how sitting Power 5 head coaches don't move, in general.

The candidates

Iowa State coach Matt Campbell: His stock is soaring after leading the Cyclones to two wins over top-5 opponents in just his second season in Ames. Campbell can develop quarterbacks, which Tennessee clearly needs, and brings a steady presence to any program. He's still young but doesn't come across that way. Like Jones, Campbell has Midwest roots and would need to acclimate to a new recruiting region, but would be a solid choice. -- Rittenberg

Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher: Tennessee kicked the tires last time on Jimbo, to no avail. It's been a rough year in Tallahassee, so don't be surprised if Tennessee tries to go down that road again. He can develop quarterbacks, which the Vols need, and he's one of the best recruiters in the country. -- Low

UCF coach Scott Frost: I like Frost a lot. So do Florida and Nebraska, which could make it tough for the Vols to get in the mix here. Still, his Florida connections, when you're talking about recruiting, go a long way. Among Group of 5 coaches, he makes the most sense even though Memphis coach Mike Norvell, in terms of proximity, would be more of a seamless fit. -- Scarborough

Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente: He could be exactly what Tennessee needs: a no-nonsense quarterback developer who has been in the same region for nearly two seasons. Tennessee should pursue Fuente, but I expect him to stay in Blacksburg with an enhanced contract after this season. I've heard if he leaves, it would be to get closer to his home state of Oklahoma. -- Rittenberg

Former NFL coach and current ESPN analyst Jon Gruden: Tennessee fans have been talking about Jon Gruden for 10 years now. He has Tennessee ties, "Monday Night Football," everybody knows him and he has this magnetic personality. I just don't see any way he comes to college football. If he's going to coach again, it's going to be in the NFL. -- Low

Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy: There's a relatively smooth transition as far as offensive scheme. They do a lot of the same stuff. He has a proven track record. He checks off a lot of the boxes. I don't know if it's realistic, but there has always been some tension between Gundy and the big money at Oklahoma State. They should at least make a run at him. -- Scarborough

Former Oregon and NFL coach Chip Kelly: I talked to somebody close to Kelly who said if he felt the people were right, he might be interested in a place like Tennessee. The lack of stability there could be an issue. I would be surprised if he's in the mix, but I wouldn't write it off. -- Rittenberg

Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen: He's going to be at the top of their list and possibly Florida's, as he had success as the Gators' offensive coordinator under Urban Meyer. He's a guy they will go after. He's an offensive guy. He's been great at developing quarterbacks. He's coached in the SEC; he's recruited in the SEC. -- ?Low

Eventually, somebody's going to have to take him seriously as a big-time Power 5 head coach because of the r?sum? he has built at Mississippi State. You have to make sure he has the staff around him to recruit because he's not an ace recruiter. Recruiting at Tennessee is going to be a lot different than finding hidden gems in the state of Mississippi. -- Scarborough

Memphis coach Mike Norvell: He has done an excellent job in a short amount of time at Memphis, and being in the state helps. I imagine he will interview and merit a long look, but he's really young (36), and I'm not sure he's quite ready for this job under such difficult circumstances. -- Rittenberg

Ohio State defensive coordinator Greg Schiano: Schiano is for sure a guy they would want to talk to. He has been a head coach, and that's why he'll be high on Tennessee's list. -- Low

Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables: He's one I'd give a really hard look. It's his time. It's just a matter of whether he's ready to leave Clemson yet. He would also help maintain recruiting in the Carolinas.? -- Scarborough

He has thrived at Clemson, which is a bit secluded despite the Tigers' success. I just wonder if Tennessee is too big of an environment for him. If you're considering going with a coordinator, you at least kick the tires on him. -- Rittenberg

The Search Firm recommends: Dan Mullen

Sorry, Vols fans, we don't think Jon Gruden or Chip Kelly is coming to Rocky Top. Mullen is the best realistic choice for Tennessee, which needs a proven head coach at the Power 5 level who understands the landscape in the SEC. He has dramatically elevated Mississippi State, the least-resourced program in the most well-resourced division in college football. He also understands the SEC East Division from his time as Florida's offensive coordinator, where he won two national championships under Urban Meyer.

Mullen's track record of quarterback development and his time-tested offensive system should help Tennessee through a personnel transition in 2018. His recruiting clout is a concern, but we believe that Tennessee will give Mullen the ability to hire accomplished coordinators and position coaches who can bring enough talent -- and the right talent -- to Knoxville.

There's a bit of risk in assuming that Mullen, who has done more with less, will do more with more at a program that demands it, but he won't be intimidated by the league or the task at hand, which is getting Tennessee back to the SEC championship game.