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SEC, Pac-12 with best playoff paths
— -- Conference depth helps determine strength of schedule, which is one factor the College Football Playoff selection committee will use in the first season of the playoff. Could a strong league schedule work against some good teams that are bound to lose a game or two (see: Stanford, the SEC West)? Nobody has an easy road to the playoff, but for some conferences, getting there looks more realistic.
Here's a breakdown of the path to the playoff for each of the Power 5 conferences:
Great Chance
• SEC -- The SEC has nine teams ranked in the top 20 of ESPN's Football Power Index, more than any other conference.
Count the SEC champ in. However, the odds of an SEC team making it to the postseason undefeated are slim. No team from the SEC is listed among the FPI's top four teams projected to make it to bowl season undefeated.
This week's South Carolina-Georgia game has major playoff implications. Should the Gamecocks win, their remaining schedule is favorable enough for them to bounce back from their Week 1 loss and win the SEC East. That's a big if considering what we've seen so far. If Georgia wins, its toughest games will be against Florida and Auburn.
In the West, Alabama is still trying to figure out its quarterbacks and how to defend an up-tempo offense and Texas A&M looks like it can score on just about anyone. Look for a one-loss SEC team to head to the SEC title game -- and only one SEC team in the playoff.
• Pac-12 -- The Ducks should be in. Should. They miss USC on their schedule this year, dodging a huge bullet en route to the league title game. UCLA, meanwhile, has to play Oregon, USC and Stanford (how is that fair?).
If the Pac-12 follows the script, the title game will feature USC and Oregon, but as one of the most balanced and deepest conferences in the country, it could also cannibalize itself.
The Pac-12 had five teams ranked in the FPI top 20 this week. Unlike any of the other Power 5 conferences, the Pac-12 plays nine league games and a title game.
Stanford already lost to USC, and it has to finish the regular season with three of four games on the road, including at No. 2 Oregon and No. 12 UCLA. Oregon has passed its toughest test but still has to travel to No. 12 UCLA, and the Ducks have whiffed on beating Stanford each of the past two seasons.
Good Chance
• ACC -- The ACC would have been listed under great chance if Florida State would have looked as dominant as it did last season and didn't get its legs cut out from underneath it by The Citadel on Saturday. Instead, three of the Noles' defensive linemen were injured in that game, and defensively, FSU has been below average, according to ESPN's defensive efficiency (85th in the FBS after leading it in 2013).
Not only has Florida State looked vulnerable, but its opponents have also begun to surge. Clemson, Notre Dame, Louisville and Florida suddenly look like more formidable opponents.
Virginia Tech, though, is on the rise after its upset win at Ohio State. The Hokies don't have to play Florida State or Clemson this season, leaving the most difficult opponent in their wake. A win over a Braxton Miller-less Ohio State team might not be enough to catapult Virginia Tech into the top four, but a win over FSU in the ACC title game could.
• Big 12 -- The knock on this conference is that it doesn't play a title game. That could come back to haunt it in this system, but right now, Oklahoma is looking good and Baylor is still a top-10 team.
If Baylor gets a Nov. 8 road win at what should be a top-five Oklahoma team, it would be hard to keep the Bears out of the playoff.
The odds of the Big 12 title being won by either Oklahoma or Baylor are up to 89.8 percent, according to the FPI. This is an important week for the Big 12 because it has seven nonconference games against Power 5 teams. Highlighting the schedule is Oklahoma vs. Tennessee, Iowa State at Iowa, and Texas Tech vs. Arkansas.
Fat Chance
• Big Ten -- Michigan State shouldn't be penalized too heavily for losing on the road to No. 2 Oregon, but the rest of the conference isn't going to do the Spartans any favors when it comes to strength of schedule.
The Big Ten's road to the playoff will be the most difficult for all the wrong reasons. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Big Ten does not have any teams ranked in the top 20. Every other Power 5 conference has at least two teams in the top 20. So while Michigan State might win out and win the Big Ten, it could lose credit for beating mediocre teams along the way.
Four Downs
Elimination game: If South Carolina loses to Georgia this weekend, the Gamecocks are toast in the playoff picture. The FPI gives Georgia a 62 percent chance of winning Saturday and a league-high 25 percent chance of winning the SEC.
Sleeper picks: Look out for BYU. After smacking Texas around (again), BYU jumped from 24th to 15th in the FPI, which gives it the best chance to enter the bowl season undefeated. Also keep an eye on K-State. If the Wildcats beat Auburn on Sept. 18, they have a chance to build their résumé with wins over three ranked opponents (Auburn, Oklahoma and Baylor).
B1G decision: The Big Ten and NCAA have agreed to let Penn State play in a bowl game this season. The Nittany Lions get Ohio State and Michigan State at home and could be a factor in the East Division race. It's much-needed good news for the beat-up conference.
Streak snapped: The Gators finally won again, but can they keep it up against one of the toughest schedules in the country? Florida has six -- six -- ranked opponents, starting with Alabama in two weeks. The Gators have an elite defense, but building on the offensive success is key to surviving that gantlet.
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