ESPN's Clayton: Colts Win
Feb. 2, 2007 — -- Thanks to the head coaching leadership of Tony Dungy of the Colts and Lovie Smith of the Bears, Super Bowl XLI has been Miami Nice.
Dungy and Smith are close friends. Both coaches are religious and good family men. On the field, they are stoic and generally not very emotional. Profanities aren't part of their vocabularies. That attitude is reflected in the way their players have behaved during Super Bowl hype week. There has been no trash talking. Both teams have been respectful of each other. Reports of curfew violations or other problems have been nonexistent.
Vegas favors the Colts by 6½ points and so do I. Why wouldn't I? I've been predicting a Colts Super Bowl for three years. Their date with destiny was delayed by the Patriots' mini-dynasty and a great run in the playoffs last year by the Steelers.
But beyond my belief that this is their year, the Colts will win if …
1. Peyton Manning can continue to master the 10-possession game. It's eerie how Manning manages games. He gets 10 possessions and usually scores on five of them. Usually that means three touchdown drives and two field goals. If the Colts get 27 points as expected, they should win. The 18-point comeback in the AFC Championship Game against the Patriots illustrated how Manning can conquer all obstacles. It's his time. Like all the great quarterbacks, Manning is ready to capture his moment in the Super Bowl sun. He's worked harder than any other quarterback to master a no-huddle offense that allows him to call the plays. He has the right talent around him at the right time. If he does his part, Manning and the Colts should win 27-17.
2. The Colts' defense can control its aggressiveness. With a front seven that is smaller than average, but has good speed, the Colts have a tendency to overpursue on run downs. If that happens, Thomas Jones could have a big day. Jones is the most dangerous type of runner against the Colts. He's a cutback runner who reads zone blocking well. If defenders are caught out of position overpursuing they will be destroyed by cutback runs. DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis and all of the Colts linebackers tend to lose control of their gaps. Manning and the offense could help by jumping out to a big lead, which would pull the Bears away from their running game.
Related Stories
ABC News Live