Sunday's winner is anybody's guess at Talladega

ByRICKY CRAVEN
October 22, 2016, 3:21 PM

— -- Race car drivers spend the majority of their time thinking about winning races, competing for a title.

You're dominated by it and it occupies the majority of your professional life.

Then there's the risk associated with your profession -- it doesn't dominate you like winning does, but it exists. You acknowledge it and move past it.

That's a glimpse into a driver's mentality

This week's a little bit different, because competing at Talladega elevates the risks.

Your history there -- or more so the track's reputation -- makes the risk equation just a bit more prominent in your mind.

What does all this mean?

It means Talladega with all its volatility is perhaps the single most difficult race for drivers to mentally prepare for.

The one thing that protects a driver the most is a fast race car.

At any track other than Daytona or Talladega, a fast car affords you the ability to separate from the field. Ultimately there is no safer place on the race track then out front in the lead. Fast cars help carry you there at unrestricted tracks.

At Talladega, fast vs. slow hardly exists. There is not enough horsepower to create separation.

At Talladega, every driver is in the lead because he or she has their right foot planted to the floorboard. You might ease off momentarily if all lanes are blocked, but it's only long enough to avoid making contact, then it's down again -- full throttle -- all the way around the 2.66-mile superspeedway.

It's not that Talladega can't be fun, but it seems more fun for those with less to lose.

I've never associated all the first-time winners -- David Ragan-type upsets -- with anything other than all those drivers on those given days being willing to take just a bit more risk, perhaps when it mattered most late in the race.

"You lift, you lose" is an expression you hear most often with this track.

It oversimplifies the process and requirements for winning here because it's much more than that -- but it does spotlight the prevailing attitude about competing at the Alabama track.

You have to be brave, courageous and assertive in your decision-making.

If you're cautious, you drift backward. If you're uncomfortable, you drift backward. If you're less willing than others to swap lanes in an attempt to intercept speed and momentum, you drift backward.

But here's the difficult part. Unlike other tracks where you could gain some breathing room from drifting backward, at Talladega you've only gone from the front of the pack to the rear

You're still a participant of the 40-car three-wide draft, only now you are more vulnerable, more at risk, because you're not out of the storm, you've just positioned yourself to be right in its path if all hell breaks loose anywhere in front of you.

It sounds crazy. It Is!

The Bottom Line

For most of the Chase drivers, this is the most concerning race of the season because their championship hopes are pinned on having a safe and productive race.

That's asking a lot from Talladega because safe and productive aren't common expressions at the facility.

It's fast, it's intense, it's congested, it's unpredictable -- all things you wish to avoid if you're a few points above the cutoff to advance.

Drivers are at their best when they race instinctively, but few drivers can drive a full Talladega race on instinct alone.

Most need the constant protection and reassurance of knowing when a car is near, inside or outside. They have to ask themselves, "Am I clear? Which lane is building momentum?"

Your spotter hears sounds out of his element, more like an air traffic controller.

At 200 mph, all this noise can be mentally exhausting.

So don't ask me who will win. I can't tell you.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. isn't in the race. He is one of the few drivers capable of racing Talladega instinctively, just as his dad always did.

Brad Keselowski would be a good pick, I suppose, but I can't weigh the burden of battling to advance vs. simply driving to win.

In other words, I think most championship-contending drivers will mix Talladega craziness with championship-obtaining logic.

That is another way of saying I just want a safe and productive day.

Good luck with that!