How these Sweet 16 coaches win (and how they lose)

ByJOHN GASAWAY

March 23, 2016, 9:25 AM

 -- For better or worse, in March, we tend to view each team's success largely as a reflection of its coach's performance. And even if that habit is overindulged at times -- the players do have to go out there and make the shots themselves -- I think it basically reflects a healthy instinct. For one thing, it's surely instructive that many of the same guys tend to show up in the Sweet 16 each year.

To celebrate this March's outstanding coaching performances, I decided to look at 16 defining qualities for each of them, and an equal number of, yes, weaknesses. Even the coaches at the top of the heap are always striving to get better.

Here are your Sweet 16 coaches, in the order in which they appear on that bracket you crumpled up and burned long ago.

Bill Self, Kansas

Defining quality: It's not hyperbole to label Self a master of interior scoring, and thus far in the NCAA tournament, KU is showing the master's touch. In wins against Austin Peay and UConn, the Jayhawks have connected on 59 percent of their 2s. Kansas attacked the interior early and successfully in both games, and as a result, Self has coached the balance of this tournament with a safe, double-digit lead in his pocket.

Weakness: You have to squint pretty hard to find any meaningful deficiencies in a team that just won two games by a combined margin of 38 points. Maybe there will be concerns to address when Kansas faces higher-seeded foes. For example, in recent years, the Jayhawks have tended to operate at a slight turnover disadvantage relative to their Big 12 opponents. We'll see if any future opponent can put all those turnover-less possessions to good use. The Governors, Huskies and, for the most part, Big 12 opposition could not.

Mark Turgeon, Maryland

Defining quality: Forcing misses. Maybe this is the season that Turgeon finally received his due as a defensive coach. In league play, the Terps ranked No. 1 in the Big Ten in field goal defense (as measured by effective field goal percentage). Maybe we shouldn't be too surprised that the Terps advanced to the Sweet 16 by limiting Hawaii to 23-of-70 shooting from the floor.

Weakness: In league play during Turgeon's Maryland tenure (spanning both the ACC and the Big Ten), the Terps have yet to record a turnover percentage that's lower than the conference average. That's not necessarily a huge concern, but the Terps have committed turnovers at a rate far higher than the Big Ten average this season.

Jim Larrañaga, Miami

Defining quality: Larrañaga gives his players freedom to create within each possession, and the current beneficiaries of this quality are Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriguez. The result thus far in tournament play as been a very healthy free throw rate for the Hurricanes duo. This tracks with what we saw during ACC play, when Larrañaga's team attempted nearly five more free throws per game than its opponents.

Weakness: The Hurricanes allowed Buffalo and Wichita State to launch 48 tries from beyond the arc. The Shockers are a good enough team that they lost by just eight points even though they shot a mere 27 percent from downtown, but the Bulls connected on 38 percent and thus lost by almost the same margin (seven). Though Miami did a good job limiting 3-point attempts during the regular season, the first two games of the tournament indicate a good perimeter-shooting team may be able to score against this defense.

Jay Wright, Villanova

Defining quality: For the third consecutive season, Wright brought one of the most accurate shooting teams in the nation to the NCAA tournament. And while the coach can't take all the credit, and shooting is fickle, that accuracy has stayed suspiciously consistent even though there has been a healthy turnover in personnel over that span. And in the tournament's first two games, the Wildcats' shooting has been simply incredible: 66 percent on 2s, and 49 percent on 3s.

Weakness: What if that incredible shooting takes a game off? A notable share of Villanova's points are produced on a possession's first shot from the field. Period. The Wildcats don't emphasize offensive boards, and in Big East play, their free throw rate was right at the league average. Wright's system is thought of as perimeter-oriented (and often is), but in league play this season, Nova balanced 2s and 3s in the same proportion as an average Big East team. Still, when shots from the field don't fall, it can be more of a concern for this offense than for others in the Sweet 16.

Dana Altman, Oregon

Defining quality: Omnicompetence on offense? It's a mouthful, but what I'm trying to convey is that Altman's Ducks were excellent (almost) across the board in terms of scoring this season. Let's start with the bad news: Oregon is an average outside shooting team. But then look at everything else UO does. The Ducks are an outstanding 2-point scoring team that crashes the offensive glass and takes very good care of the ball. Altman has had several elite offenses at Creighton and especially at Oregon. This might be the best one he has had.

Weakness: Altman's Ducks are not the best defensive rebounding team you will come across. Chris Boucher is an excellent shot-blocker, but his forays in search of swats may be leaving the rim open for weak-side offensive rebounds.

Mike Krzyzewski, Duke

Defining quality: Simply put, Krzyzewski's defining quality is offense. Duke led the league in points scored per possession in ACC play for an incredible six consecutive seasons, until that streak was snapped in 2015-16 by Notre Dame. Maybe that run's still going with a healthy Amile Jefferson and the offensive rebounds he would have contributed. Be that as it may, the Blue Devils blazed through two lower-seeded tournament opponents to the tune of 1.21 points per trip.

Weakness: Krzyzewski's weakness, at the moment, is defense. Those same two lower-seeded opponents -- UNC Wilmington and Yale -- scored a healthy 1.10 points per possession. Particularly worrisome for Duke is the fact that opponents from the CAA and Ivy were able to rebound 39 percent of their misses.

Billy Kennedy, Texas A&M

Defining quality: After an incredible finish against Northern Iowa, I'm tempted to say Kennedy's defining quality is an absolute refusal to quit. I will only add that the Aggies were in the round of 32 in the first place because Kennedy is an excellent defensive coach. In SEC play this season, A&M forced misses and turnovers, and the remarkable feature of that combination is that the Aggies achieved it without fouling. It is a rare coach who can bring those defensive elements together.

Weakness: The only ingredient in this otherwise excellent defensive mix that seems a little off is the frequency with which opponents attempt 3-point shots. If the Coach K school of thought has merit, and the best perimeter defense is not to allow attempts from beyond the arc, then the A&M perimeter defense has room for improvement. Northern Iowa, for example, launched 34 3-point attempts in 50 minutes, and in SEC play, the Aggies were similarly welcoming to tries from beyond the arc.

Lon Kruger, Oklahoma

Roy Williams, North Carolina

Defining quality: All season long, UNC's opponents have been buried by the sheer volume of shots the Tar Heels attempt. In the tournament, the Tar Heels are up to these same old tricks. In wins against Florida Gulf Coast and Providence, Carolina has pulled down 41 percent of its missed shots while committing a bare minimum of turnovers. Bear in mind UNC's shooting accuracy in the tournament has been good but not great. What has really made the difference has been the number of shots the Heels have attempted.

Weakness: At the risk of repeating what I wrote for Kansas, it's difficult to nitpick with a team that has cruised into the Sweet 16 with such ease. One potential wrinkle to watch: UNC's foul rate in two tournament games is up from what we saw in the regular season, and Isaiah Hicks (twice) and Brice Johnson (once) have each picked up four fouls. The wrinkle hasn't mattered to the final result so far, of course, but it could come into play in a close game.

Tom Crean, Indiana

Defining quality: Crean puts teams on the floor that excel at choosing the best shot within each possession. Indiana works the ball around the perimeter to find an open 3, but at the same time, there's often a Hoosier cutting to the basket who's ready to receive a feed. The shot chart that results from this movement is a thing of exemplary wonder: 3s and dunks and layups but very, very few 2-point jumpers.

Weakness: IU's interior defense improved by leaps and bounds over last season, but its number for opponents' 2-point accuracy was still a hair worse than the league average in Big Ten play. The Hoosiers' two tournament opponents have hit 54 percent of their 2s. Baked into that number are plenty of Chattanooga makes when IU had a double-digit lead, but it's something to track going forward.

Mike Brey, Notre Dame

Defining quality: Now that Bo Ryan has retired, the cause of extremely low-turnover hoops needs a new figurehead. Brey might be as good a choice as any. In ACC play, Notre Dame gave the ball away on just 13 percent of its possessions. That rate has jumped up in the first two games of the tournament, but assuming the Fighting Irish return to form, we can expect to see a highly efficient Notre Dame offense fueled by a high number of turnover-less possessions.

Weakness: Brey has long favored players who are versatile on offense and can shoot, but those same players don't always perform at such a high level on defense. The Irish defense ranked No. 12 in the ACC during league play, and that level of opposition scoring has continued in the tournament. And, of course, Notre Dame is still standing. The Irish have won two (relatively slow-paced) shootouts.

Greg Gard, Wisconsin

Defining quality: We've had just 22 games to learn about Gard's defining quality, and I'm not sure if that makes the task harder or easier. The thing that has struck me most about those 22 games is that Wisconsin really likes forcing turnovers on defense. That's not how the Badgers operated under Ryan, but Gard has already instilled this new approach. And don't be fooled by the normal-looking opponent turnover percentage. The Big Ten in 2015-16 is one of the lowest-turnover conferences on record. In relative terms, Wisconsin is getting it done in that regard.

Weakness: I'm going to give Gard a rookie pass on this category. The Badgers weren't the best shooting team this season, it's true, but to remedy this shortcoming, maybe the coach needs to draw up more contested 3s from the right corner for Bronson Koenig.

Tony Bennett, Virginia

Defining quality: Guess what this answer's going to be? Bennett's teams defend and are a nightmare for opposing offenses. If we learned anything new this season, it's that this doesn't happen automatically. In the first half of the ACC season, Virginia was actually surprisingly average on defense. The Cavaliers returned to their elite selves during the season's final six weeks. Bennett can not only coach defense, he can improve one on the fly.

Weakness: There aren't a lot of weaknesses to be found on a team that's gone 45-9 in the ACC over the past three seasons. Virginia's offense is consistently underrated because it's not as good as its defense. Well, competing with that unit is one tall order. If there's one curious element in Bennett's track record, however, it's his teams' on-again, off-again relationship with offensive rebounding. This season, it was off-again and there were harmful side effects. A lack of second chances in league play helped explain how the most accurate shooting team in the ACC finished No. 4 in the conference in points per possession.

Steve Prohm, Iowa State

Defining quality: Prohm may be in his first season at Iowa State, but his defining quality has stayed constant since his time at Murray State. He fuses excellent shooting with a near-total avoidance of turnovers into one exceptionally strong offense. This season, the Cyclones had the best offense in what was statistically the strongest conference in the nation. The fact that Fred Hoiberg left behind players the caliber of Georges Niang and Monte Morris was essential to producing that outcome. Nevertheless, it's also true that few coaches could have walked into such a situation and piloted the offense to the same high level that the Cyclones reached.

Weakness: In a word, defense. Mind you, this is a temporary weakness. Prohm's defense at Murray State in 2011-12 was downright elite. Still, ISU struggled this season, in part because it ranked No. 8 in the Big 12 in defensive-rebound percentage in league play.

Mark Few, Gonzaga

Defining quality: This one's so obvious on one level, but familiarity can lead us to miss the forest for the trees. Few's defining quality is that he has taken a WCC program to 17 consecutive NCAA tournaments. No one would have thought that possible when he took the job in 1999. It remains on the very short list of the most impressive coaching feats we've seen in recent years.

Weakness: Gonzaga has never been a high-pressure defense that forces turnovers, but this season in WCC play, the Bulldogs' opponents actually held onto the ball even better than the Zags themselves. (And Gonzaga's turnover rate was excellent.) With the elite teams that remain in the field, there will be an unusually large number of chances to score against Gonzaga. So there's potential for big scoring runs by opponents.

Jim Boeheim, Syracuse

Defining quality: Zone defense. No scheme is more definitively associated with one coach in college basketball than Boeheim's 2-3 zone defense. And the defining quality of Boeheim is that almost invariably that zone defense is excellent. Statistically speaking, this current unit isn't necessarily the best Boeheim has had in recent years, but in the tournament, the defense has held Dayton and Middle Tennessee to well under a point per possession. The coach has his team playing its best defense of the season, or for that matter, of the past two years.

Weakness: Defensive rebounding. I'm unconvinced that zone teams can't rebound -- Syracuse has on occasion been excellent on the glass during the season-- but it is true that some of Boeheim's teams have been weak in this area. This is one of those teams. In ACC play, the Orange pulled down just 65 percent of opponents' misses.

Video

Live

Shows

Elections

538

Shop