Trade deadline news and views
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Wednesday's trade buzz
Jerry Crasnick's take: It's looking increasingly more likely that the Brewers will move Lucroy, one of the prized hitters of the trade deadline market. They're talking to several clubs, and it appears that someone will meet general manager David Stearns' asking price by the Aug. 1 deadline. The team that acquires Lucroy will have him for two months this season and the entire 2017 season, when he's signed for an affordable $5.25 million.
Jerry Crasnick's take: The Giants have been in an almost daily tug-of-war over whether they need to fortify the rotation or the bullpen first. They'd love to add a reliever, but the ongoing struggles of Jake Peavy and Matt Cain in the Nos. 4- and 5 spots have increased the possibility they'll try to add a starter. Volquez is an interesting name, if only because he's pitched in the same rotation with Johnny Cueto in Cincinnati and Kansas City. Could the Giants try to reunite them for a third time?
David Schoenfield's take: Cashner looks more like rotation depth at this point, considering he has struggled with walks and home runs this year while not compensating with a higher strikeout rate. He could be an intriguing arm out of the bullpen, however, if his fastball plays up in relief. He has averaged 93.9 mph as a starter in 2016, but back when he pitched out of the bullpen he averaged 96-97. So he could be a sneaky relief alternative without having to pay the big price the Cubs paid to get Aroldis Chapman
Jerry Crasnick's take: Gallo has been mentioned as a prime trade chip in the Rangers' search for pitching. But some teams have enough reservations about his ability to make contact that they don't necessarily see him as the centerpiece of a deal, and they might be more inclined to focus on Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar or Lew Brinson in discussions with Texas. If Gallo develops into another Chris Davis or Adam Dunn, he'll be worth the risk. Until he cuts down on the strikeouts, he has a little too much boom-or-bust for some evaluators' tastes.
Jayson Stark's take: After trading for Aroldis Chapman and Mike Montgomery, and activating Joe Nathan, the Cubs have addressed the bullpen, the one area of their team they viewed as a defined weakness. So although they're clearly not finished shopping, rival teams say they've been asking about controllable starting pitchers. So Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore in Tampa Bay fit the profile of a team they could match up with.
The Cubs balked at including young players who have already reached the big leagues -- Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, Kyle Schwarber, etc. -- in their pursuit of Chapman and other closers. And Tampa Bay has been asking for big league-ready players in virtually any deal they make involving a starting pitcher. So that stance could be a deal-breaker for now, possibly to be resumed this winter. But a team with as many prospects to trade as the Cubs can't be counted out of the discussion for almost any name currently bouncing around.
Jayson Stark's take: With five days left before the deadline, Hellickson has emerged as the Phillies' one trade chip with real value. He has gone at least six innings in 13 of his past 14 starts, with a 3.14 ERA and a respectable 70-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 89 innings in that span. So teams looking for back-of-the-rotation innings-eaters (Marlins, Orioles, Giants, Pirates, Rangers) have been watching him closely.
What those teams are reporting, though, is that the Phillies are looking for a young player who "isn't your best prospect, but would fit somewhere in your top five prospects" in return. And their rationale is that, as a Scott Boras client approaching free agency, Hellickson is a player they would almost certainly tender a qualifying offer to this winter and have confidence he'd be unlikely to take it. So they're telling clubs they see no upside in trading him without getting a player better than the No. 35-40 pick in the draft, which is what they'd end up with.
So while it's probable they find a taker this week, Hellickson is one of those players who seems to rank as no team's first choice but slots as a Plan B for a number of teams. His next start for the Phillies is Saturday in Atlanta. And it's now a good bet he'll make that start.
Tuesday's trade buzz
Jerry Crasnick's take: The Reds have ramped up the dialogue on Bruce, one of the top bats available at the deadline. The Giants, Dodgers and Indians are among the teams looking for offensive upgrades and might be interested. It'll be a surprise if Bruce is in Cincinnati after Aug. 1.
Jayson Stark's take: The Nationals were in on Aroldis Chapman right to the end. Now, according to clubs talking with them, they are turning their attention to other big-name closers. Andrew Miller, Wade Davis and David Robertson are on the Nats' radar, but the price might be too hefty, especially for Miller or Davis, neither of whom is a lock to be moved before the deadline.
Other teams say that, at least so far, Washington hasn't been willing to discuss any of its three most highly regarded young players: Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner and Reynaldo Lopez. Based on what the Yankees and Royals are looking for to convince themselves it's worth dealing Miller and Davis, that would take the Nationals out of the running for either.
The asking price for Robertson -- who has a 4.46 ERA, not to mention $25 million left on his contract in 2017 and 2018 -- would figure to be significantly lower, particularly if the Nationals take on most of his salary. That has long been a sticking point for this team, including last season, when they renegotiated closer Jonathan Papelbon's 2016 salary from $13 million to $11 million. Nevertheless, the Nationals clearly remain focused on adding a reliever who can close for them this year and beyond.
Jerry Crasnick's take: It's shaping up as a quiet deadline for the Diamondbacks, who rank among MLB's most disappointing teams this season. They have made it clear they're not interested in trading starters Patrick Corbin and Robbie Ray, and they would be selling extremely low on Shelby Miller if they tried to deal him now, in the aftermath of his demotion to Triple-A. Hudson looked like a strong trade chip for Arizona, but his recent struggles have undermined his short-term value. If he turns things around in August, the Diamondbacks can try to slip him through waivers and move him next month.
Jerry Crasnick's take: It remains uncertain which team Hellickson will be pitching for after the deadline, but it's a virtual lock that it won't be the Phillies. Hellickson has allowed one run over 14 innings in his past two starts -- 4-1 and 4-0 victories over the Marlins -- and he's pitching his best ball at precisely the right time for Andy MacPhail and Matt Klentak to flip him to a contender.
Monday's trade buzz
Eddie Matz's take: Best fit? More like perfect fit. Here are five reasons: 1) While certainly dominant enough to be a closer, Miller is apparently OK with set-up duty, and that's where he'd probably start out in DC because, well, the Nats can't do what they did at last year's deadline and just pull a Papelbon on Jonathan Papelbon. 2) If Papelbon falters or gets hurt, Miller is about filthy as an understudy gets. 3) Miller's contract runs through 2018, which means that if he doesn't ascend to closer this season, he could do so when Papelbon's deal expires after the season. 4) With a deep farm system, Washington can afford to pay the price for a guy who is more than just a two-month rental. 5) Miller is a lefty, and the Nats could use lefty relief help. So yeah, the fit works.
Mark Simon's take: Mets general manager Sandy Alderson didn't specify which rumor he was shooting down, but speaking before Monday's rainout, he noted that a rumor about a prominent position player (most likely catcher Jonathan Lucroy of the Brewers for a package around catcher Travis d'Arnaud) was "dead on arrival."
With the injuries to Lucas Duda, David Wright and Matt Harvey, a potentially brittle starting rotation and a farm system featuring a couple blue-chip prospects, Alderson doesn't have a lot to work with. D'Arnaud's recent offensive improvements are what he and Terry Collins are banking on moving forward.
Jayson Stark's take: With Aroldis Chapman off the market, Davis succeeds him as the best closer available. As such, several of the teams that pursued Chapman (Nationals, Giants, Rangers, etc.) would figure to be just as interested in Davis. But the Royals' steep asking price reflects the fact that, unlike Chapman, Davis is under control next year, with a $10 million club option (or $2.5 million buyout). The Royals would likely ask a team such as Washington, for instance, to build a package around Trea Turner and/or Lucas Giolito, two high-ceiling, young players who have already reached the big leagues. If that's the type of return being asked, it would seem doubtful that they'll find any team willing to pay it, unless it's part of a larger deal.
Scott Lauber's take: Two weeks after undergoing minor knee surgery, Kimbrel threw off a mound, an exercise he's expected to repeat Wednesday. If all goes well, he could go on a rehab assignment Saturday and might rejoin the Red Sox by next week. As a result, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Monday about the Red Sox's potential need for another reliever: "I think our bullpen will be fine. I know people keep saying, 'They've got add somebody, they've got to add somebody.' But they forget that we're getting Kimbrel back and we just got [Junichi] Tazawa back. We've been able to add to our bullpen."
That's all true. But setup man Koji Uehara remains sidelined indefinitely with a strained right pectoral muscle, an injury Dombrowski and manager John Farrell have ominously labeled "unique." When the season began, the Sox were counting on Kimbrel, Uehara, Tazawa and Carson Smith as their primary late-inning relievers. The recent acquisition of submarining right-hander Brad Ziegler essentially replaces Smith, who was lost for the season to Tommy John elbow surgery. But Uehara's absence still leaves a void. Matt Barnes has emerged as a trusted late-inning option, but unless the Red Sox believe he can step into a high-leverage seventh- or eighth-inning role, there's room to acquire another reliever before the deadline.
Jayson Stark's take: We like to pigeonhole teams as "buyers" or "sellers" at this time of year. But the Royals seem to defy those labels. If they move Wade Davis, Edinson Volquez, Kendrys Morales or anyone else, it will be for players they can plug into their roster immediately -- or no later than next season -- and can control for several years. Other clubs say the Royals seem to be wary of making a trade that could be construed by fans or players as giving up. But with Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Davis and Danny Duffy all eligible for free agency after next season, the Royals are targeting players who could allow them to make a run next season, and they're looking for young players who could extend their window to win. They appear to have backed off in their interest in a rental bat such as Josh Reddick, for instance, but have asked about young outfielders on several teams. They'll be a fascinating team to watch the next week.
Mark Saxon's take: Indications were that the Cardinals did not get seriously involved, if they got involved at all, in trying to acquire Chapman. Although they are seeking relief help before the deadline, they have indicated that they aren't necessarily looking for closer-level pitchers. Seung Hwan Oh has been fine, and the team still thinks Trevor Rosenthal could iron out his command issues and become the team's closer again. Look for the Cardinals to acquire a second-tier arm, as they did last season with Steve Cishek and Jonathan Broxton.
Jerry Crasnick's take: The Angels, who are 43-55 and 13½ games out of first place in the American League West, are so short on starting pitching that they keep giving Tim Lincecum opportunities. But sources said they have engaged in discussions with several teams about Santiago, who is 8-4 with a 4.32 ERA and is making an affordable $5 million this season with two years to go until free agency. Santiago could have some appeal to teams such as the Marlins, Orioles or Pirates that are looking for depth or an upgrade in a thin market for starting pitching. The Mets are focused primarily on a reliever. But if they decide to dabble in the starting market, they could enter the fray.
Andrew Marchand's take: The Yankees have loved Michael Pineda's and Nathan Eovaldi's talent, but with free agency approaching for both after next year, it could be time to cut bait. The Yankees won't give either away, as they think both could be good starters. They are currently higher on Eovaldi. The problem with dealing either is that their stock is low. Of course, if their stock were high, the Yankees wouldn't think about dealing them at all. Acquiring teams have to decide whether, to use a phrase from Eovaldi's home state of Texas, they are big hat, no cattle.
Andrew Marchand's take: Ivan Nova will be a free agent at the end of the season, and the Yankees are unlikely to re-sign him. He has been inconsistent, but he has pitched in high-pressure games. A move to the National League could allow him to consistently work through six innings, which would be a valuable commodity for a contender. The Yankees could add a minor leaguer or two in a deal, which would add to their organizational depth. This all makes sense to me.
Stark's take: Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski has always been aggressive this time of year, when he thinks his team has a chance to win. But he's shopping for a commodity that is virtually not for sale.
Speaking of which, the Red Sox are one of the clubs that have asked about White Sox ace Chris Sale but have balked at the mammoth price tag. One source says Dombrowski has always coveted Oakland's Sonny Gray and would still have interest. But you can forget the ace behind door No. 3 because Tampa Bay is highly unlikely to send Chris Archer to Boston.
Teams that have talked with the Red Sox say Dombrowski is prepared to wait a few days, in case a team or two falls out of the race and decides to sell. Seattle, Kansas City and Detroit could all fit that profile, though it's far from certain that any of those teams would look to move a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Weekend trade buzz
Katie Strang's take: In other words, the two scenarios are not mutually exclusive. In fact, if the White Sox are engaged in discussions and are entertaining the possibility of trading their ace, it makes the most sense to err on the side of caution. For anyone who thinks this "incident" could dissuade any potential suitors, think again. Without Sale, it's a relatively thin starting pitching market. Players such as Sale don't come around often. That's especially true for pitchers his age, with his talent -- not to mention such a team-favorable contract.
David Schoenfield's take: It's no surprise that the Rangers are seeking pitching; they're starting Kyle Lohse these days. They're 4-15 in their past 19 games, with just three quality starts in that span. Would Jurickson Profar and Joey Gallo be enough to get Chris Sale (who, by the way, has a 4.87 ERA in his past 10 starts)? Seems like a good challenge trade for both clubs. Gallo still has Chris Davis-like upside, but he could be more Mark Reynolds than future All-Star. The White Sox are mired in mediocrity. They aren't winning with Sale; maybe it's time to retool and get more depth.
Katie Strang's take: Want a number of reasons the Tigers' standing pat makes sense? According to GM Al Avila, first, the club will be getting a pair of pitchers back from the disabled list soon, in Jordan Zimmermann and Daniel Norris, as well as outfielder J.D. Martinez. Second, the starting pitching market is either thin or prohibitive; think Chris Sale and the king's ransom required to get him. Third, the Tigers don't want to part with talented young pitchers such as Norris and Michael Fulmer, a pair of players who are often the starting point for most trade discussions with rival executives. Beyond those factors, the club's expensive payroll makes it unlikely the Tigers will add salary as the deadline approaches.
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