Trade Grades: Grizzlies make a bet on Mario Chalmers

The Deal

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Grizzlies get: Guard Mario Chalmers, forward James Ennis

Memphis Grizzlies: B

For the Grizzlies, this trade essentially represents a bet on Chalmers' ability to rediscover the 3-point ability he showed during the first six seasons of his career. Chalmers was a career 37.3 percent 3-point shooter before last season, when his accuracy dropped to 29.4 percent. He hasn't seen a bounceback so far in 2015-16, shooting just 1-of-11 beyond the arc.

This is where you, the reader, probably point out the obvious difference between the last two seasons and the rest of Chalmers' career -- the departure of LeBron James, who generated a number of open looks for Chalmers and the rest of his Miami teammates.

Indeed, Chalmers got more open shots in 2013-14, the only season with James for which we have detailed SportVU tracking available on NBA.com/Stats. More than half of Chalmers' 3-point attempts in 2013-14 (55 percent, to be exact) came with no defender closer than six feet to him. That declined to 42 percent last season. However, Chalmers also shot worse on those open shots in 2014-15, making them at a 35.6 percent clip as compared to 38.4 percent the year before. And Chalmers shot a respectable 34.7 percent overall from downtown his first two seasons before James took his talent to South Beach.

When he's making 3s at an above-average clip, Chalmers is an adequate starter at point guard and one of the league's better backups at the position. Because of his track record, he projected as far more valuable than Udrih entering the season. In fact, Udrih's projection was sub-replacement level.

Without the midrange jumpers he relied on last season falling early this year -- and without departed Nick Calathes to help protect him on defense -- there were indications Udrih was on the outs. His minutes had dropped to 15.0 a night from 18.9, and Dave Joerger had briefly experimented playing without a true point guard on the court to get the kind of additional shooting Chalmers can potentially provide.

It's not realistic to expect swapping backup point guards to solve the issues that have caused Memphis to start 3-5 with a dreadful minus-9.8 point differential. However, it makes sense for the Grizzlies to explore any possible upgrades on the margins before contemplating the possibility that their run as contenders in the Western Conference might be over.

Miami Heat: A

The motivation for the Heat to make this deal is primarily financial. Udrih ($2.2 million) makes about half as much as Chalmers ($4.3 million) this season, a margin that is crucial to Miami as a team paying the repeater tax. The difference in their salaries will shave about $5.8 million off the Heat's tax bill, with Miami saving an additional $2.1 million or so in salary over the remainder of the season.

Because of the tax implications, a Chalmers trade was probably inevitable at some point this season. Staking nearly $8 million on a possible downgrade at backup point guard is hard to justify, especially with the emergence of promising second-year guard Tyler Johnson. Though Johnson is unlikely to keep up his 55.6 percent 3-point shooting, he's demonstrated the ability to play both backcourt spots and will probably move primarily to point guard if and when Gerald Green -- who was released from the hospital over the weekend after a brief stay for an undisclosed reason -- returns to the lineup.

The Heat are taking a bit of a risk during Green's absence by weakening their depth in the backcourt in case Dwyane Wade goes down for an extended period -- which seems more a matter of when than if. With Green, the Heat have plenty of cover at shooting guard between him and Johnson. If Green remains sidelined, Miami's options are promoting second-round pick Josh Richardson to the rotation or using one of Udrih and rookie small forward Justise Winslow out of position as a backup to Johnson at shooting guard.

It's worth noting here that the Heat know more about Green's condition than we do, and the timing of this trade is probably an indication they feel confident he'll be part of the team moving forward. If so, the risk on the court is minimal and the savings enormous.

ESPN's Marc Stein has reported that official completion of this deal has been held up as Miami attempts to deal Udrih and Stokes elsewhere to further reduce their tax bill. The Heat may have a tough time finding a team willing to take back Udrih without sending back a comparable salary in return, but Stokes could be a fit for a team with a small trade exception. He was an early second-round pick 16 months ago, and a favorite of statistical projections like mine, before the Grizzlies quickly soured on his game.