Ultimate CFB bowl betting guide
— -- It's easy to get overwhelmed amid the 41 bowl games that will be played between Dec. 17 and Jan. 2. But fear not, Insider is here to help.
We've asked our experienced group of gambling experts -- Phil Steele, Will Harris, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, Chris Fallica and Rufus Peabody -- to provide a bet on every bowl game.
If you're going to bet on a bowl game this season, this is the file you need to read. It will be continuously updated throughout bowl season with fresh information.
All game times listed are Eastern. Lines are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Wed. Dec. 14.
Note: College Football Playoff semifinals will be addressed in a separate file.?
Jan. 2
Outback Bowl
No. 17? Florida?(-2) vs. Iowa
1 p.m., ABC
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
PickCenter consensus: 58 percent Iowa
Chris Fallica: Florida's season has taken a familiar path as 2015, with an offensive no-show in a loss to Florida State, followed by a blowout loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Now the Gators certainly aren't facing a Michigan team coached by Jim Harbaugh in the bowl game this year - and I don't think anyone expects a 40-7 rout -- but Iowa will be very motivated given the Hawkeyes have lost four straight bowl games, including a 45-16 embarrassment in the Rose Bowl in a game which wasn't even that close. The combined first-half score of those four losses? Only 98 to 7.
Still, it's hard not to notice how bad the Florida QB play has been. According to QBR, three of the worst 23 starts by a Power 5 QB this year have been by Luke Del Rio vs. Arkansas and Austin Appleby vs. Florida State and LSU. That doesn't even include Appleby's three-interception performance in the first half of the SEC Championship Game. If you factor that game in, four horrific QB games have come in the last five games Florida has played. Maybe the Gators defense will get healthy and play well despite the departure of defensive coordinator Geoff Collins, but it's hard to see the offense scoring many points.
We know Iowa can win a low-scoring game as it did vs Michigan -- and yes I know Florida did in Baton Rouge -- but I have to wonder how much of that was A) Florida emotion given the circumstances of the game and B) horrific LSU playcalling inside the 10-yard line.
ATS pick: Iowa
Score: Iowa 19, Florida 16
"Stanford" Steve Coughlin: Make sure you get this in the night before, so you can sleep in. You won't want to watch much of this game. Both teams give up the same amount of points per game -- 17.9. Give the 2.5 points.
ATS pick: Iowa
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
No. 15? Western Michigan vs. No. 8 Wisconsin?(-7.5)
1 p.m., ESPN
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
PickCenter consensus: 71 percent Wisconsin
Will Harris: The best collection of talent in MAC history tries to stake its claim as the best team ever, and the Broncos couldn't ask for a better measuring stick than a Big Ten heavyweight. This bunch could beat Wisconsin, maybe soundly, if the Badgers were still in the tank from losing the Big Ten championship and Rose Bowl berth after leading Penn State by three touchdowns. Teams have certainly shown up for bowl dates without their A-games over lesser disappointments. That's not necessarily the read we've gotten when testing that hypothesis, though, and the Badgers didn't turn preseason doubts over a brutal schedule into this kind of season without great chemistry, leadership and desire to play with and for one another.
Having both teams dialed in and ready to play is good for the under in this matchup, and that's where we'd lean in a game featuring two good defenses and rushing offenses that rank first and fourth nationally in time of possession. This should be a grinding, physical game where the defenses are in command but the offenses can move the ball a bit, maybe one with its share of 10-yard runs but not so many connections downfield or guys running free in the secondary. Under backers could be rewarded with long stretches where the two take turns driving to midfield and then punting.
ATS pick: under 52.5
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual
No. 9 USC?(-6.5) vs. No. 5 Penn State
5 p.m., ESPN
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
PickCenter consensus: 52 percent USC
Phil Steele: This may be the most exciting bowl game of the season; both teams were playing as well as any team in the country down the stretch. Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley has gotten away with throwing 50-50 balls that were hauled in by his receivers in the last two regular-season games, and if he tries that against a USC secondary that features first-team All-America cornerback Adoree' Jackson, I won't be surprised if a pick-six is the result. USC has the better offense, defense and special teams, as well as the talent edge. The Trojans win this game big.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 34, Penn State 23
"Stanford" Steve Coughlin: This is a game a lot like the Orange Bowl, where there are two very capable teams playing and I feel everyone will be on the favorite, which is quite alright with me. You know my love for backing the Nittany Lions this year, and I couldn't love them more than the position they are in for the Rose Bowl. When they figured things out in the Big Ten title game, they shredded who many feel is the best power 5 defense outside of Tuscaloosa and maybe Ann Arbor. There isn't one thing I don't like about Penn State's offense -- love the balance and I especially love the fearless play calling of offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead. I'll take the points even though I don't think they will be needed.
ATS pick: Penn State
Will Harris: There are good reasons the Pac-12 champ has owned its Big Ten counterpart in the Rose Bowl over the years. The midwestern entrant is basically the visitor, with bigger challenges in terms of travel, time change, climate, crowd support and more. It's also too often shown up feeling a bit too happy to simply be there. Some of that certainly applies to a Penn State team that is less experienced than its opponent and had more late-season drama to move on from. Penn State is still a youngish team with a pair of first-year coordinators and far more holes in the roster than most Big Ten champs. The offensive line has come a long way from the days when Christian Hackenberg was getting sacked every third play, but the Trojans' defensive front is sure to let Trace McSorley know early that he'll have plenty of chances to show off his scrambling ability. Clay Helton has made some unusual moves with his practice plan that we really like, and Southern Cal looks locked and loaded for this one.
ATS pick: USC -7
Allstate Sugar Bowl
No. 14 Auburn vs. No. 7 Oklahoma?(-3.5)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
PickCenter consensus: 74 percent Oklahoma
Will Harris: Auburn's 8-4 record hasn't fooled the oddsmakers, who have the Tigers a mere three-point dog to the Big 12 overlord. It hasn't even fooled the playoff committee, who at 14th have the Tigers ranked a pip higher than a team with five more victories. It might fool Oklahoma, whose local media is producing headlines like "Sooners should reap benefit of the SEC being down." Don't let it fool you. This outfit is playing its best defense in years, boasts a top-shelf kicking game, and routinely goes off for five or six hundred rushing yards when healthy.
The focus at Auburn is often on the backfield trio, but we keep touting this young receiver group as the most talented the school has ever rostered. With a healthy Sean White slinging the ball, we expect an underclassman receiver or two to break out and show the improvement he's made during bowl prep. The Tigers will move the ball on an Oklahoma defense that improved as the season went along, but is still feeling the effects of last year's senior leadership drain. The talent, production and chemistry of the Sooners offense is elite, but the opposing defensive line is a tough matchup. Auburn has excellent leadership depth on both sides of the ball and is probably a bit tighter overall as a team. That's helped the Tigers prepare very well so far, and they'll play like the favorite on SEC turf.
ATS pick: Auburn
