War Room: Jaguars at Jets

ByABC News
December 4, 2014, 12:14 AM

— -- The Jaguars potentially have the most balanced offensive attack in the NFL, but have yet to put it all together.

The crux of the problem lies in the inconsistency of quarterback Mark Brunell. Brunell is still one of the most efficient and versatile quarterbacks in the league but has struggled with his accuracy over the past two weeks.

The offense is built around Brunell's ability to take advantage of matchups and make teams pay when they over-commit against the run.

The problem the Jaguars are having is that they set up the pass by running the ball down team's throats, but have been unable to make the big strike or burn teams on play-action consistently enough.

In Monday's game against the Jets, Brunell has the opportunity to get on track when his receivers, Keenan McCardell and Jimmy Smith, draw favorable matchups against Jet CB's Aaron Glenn and Ray Mickens.

With CB Ottis Smith out with a shoulder injury, the Jets are forced to move Mickens back to the starting position and use Marcus Coleman on nickel situations. The Jets are aware that safety support in the deep third is a must versus the Jag's receivers, but defensive coordinator Bill Belichick would love to use SS Steve Atwater as much as possible in run support.

The chess match comes down to how effective Mark Brunell is making the Jets pay for dropping only one safety into deep coverage. If Brunell is on target and takes advantage of his receivers down the seams, the Jets will be forced to back off man-to-man coverage and move to a cover-two, where the run support diminishes because Atwater has a deep-third responsibility.

The Jets run a base 3-4 defensive scheme, featuring many five- and six-man fronts because the linebackers stack the line of scrimmage and put pressure on the interior of the opposing offensive line. RB's James Stewart and Fred Taylor are read-and-react type backs with excellent change of direction skills. The Jaguars pick up a lot of yardage on backside lanes that open up.

As new NFL rules regulate the cut blocking of defensive ends by offensive lineman, many backside lanes have been created for slashing running backs.

The Jets look forward to the return of NT Jason Ferguson, the stout run-stuffer that takes up a lot of space against the run. The return of Ferguson will boost the play of ILB's Marvin Jones and Bryan Cox. The linebackers will now create greater pressure when run-blitzing the A and B gaps and in turn will fill the backside cut lanes.

The New York Jets showed some signs of maturity as a unit on Sunday. QB Rick Mirer has settled into his role as the starting quarterback, and praise needs to go out to head coach Bill Parcells for simplifying the offense and guiding Mirer along instead of pushing the panic button.

Parcells knows that the chances are slim of making the playoffs in a tough AFC East division without your starting quarterback and No. 2 receiver for six weeks is a stretch, but the decision to stick with Mirer instead of picking up a free agent may have been brilliant.

Mirer finally has earned some respect from teammates and looks more confident running the offense with a few weeks of experience running the offense under his belt. This is by no means an explosive offense, but it is now competent, and with strong defensive play, will keep the team in a lot of games.

As the Jets gain more respect and become more successful throwing the football, defenses will be forced to back off the pressure playing more coverage with linebackers out of base formations. This, however, will not be the case for Dom Capers' defense on Monday night. Capers, the Jaguars' defensive coordinator, has his defense playing aggressive football and loves to put the onus on his front seven to dictate the tempo of the game.

The Jaguars are dedicated to blitzing the quarterback and taking risks to make big plays. Rick Mirer will face his toughest test yet against a Jaguar defense that will force the quarterback to make quick decisions and have an excellent feel for where his receivers are at all times.

Mirer's biggest objective now is to cut down on his interceptions in order to keep his team in games. He has proven that he can make plays and throw on the move, but the Jets are not going to ask Mirer to win games for them. Mirer needs to be the caretaker on offense and be able to capitalize when the defense puts them in good field position.

It seems as if Mirer may be more comfortable throwing the ball outside the pocket. He is undersized and has some trouble making reads downfield, so the key will be to get the quarterback outside of the pocket where he only has to make reads on half of the field.

The key to neutralizing the Jaguars pressure cooker on defense is to run the ball effectively and find the holes that are vacated by the blitz.

The Jaguars are going to stack eight men in the box and come after Rick Mirer, which could work to the Jets advantage because of Curtis Martin's running style. Martin is agile enough to avoid the penetration in the backfield and he exhibits enough burst to break into the secondary if he hits the hole that's abandoned by the blitzing linebacker.

Jacksonville SS Donovan Darrius plays a big role in run defense because of his ability to play close to the line of scrimmage and make fill in the areas that the linebacker has aborted because of the blitz.

The key to beating the Jaguar defense on the ground is to run at the blitz to counterbalance the penetration and get good downfield blocking out of the receivers and backside lineman to take the safeties out of the play.

Mike Hollis continues in his consistent ways connecting on his only field goal attempt of the game. Punter Bryan Barker had two downed at the 1 and one at the 2 and still averaged 42.5-yards per punt. The return teams were excellent with a 29-yard punt return by Reggie Barlow that set up a touchdown and another 56-yard kick return by Barlow.

PK John Hall was wide right on a 43-yard field goal attempt last week, his first miss of the season. The punt coverage has been excellent for the Jets, but the kickoff coverage surrendered a 71-yard return to Chris Watson. Chris Hayes had a penalty, but made a big tackle to make up for it.

  • New York's WR Keyshawn Johnson vs. Jacksonville's CB Aaron Beasley...
    Beasley will get some help from his secondary that will roll coverage to his side, but he will have to play physical coverage and force Johnson to the inside. If he allows Johnson to get outside of him off the line of scrimmage than his safeties will not be able to get to the sideline to cover the 9-route and Mirer will have a window to get Johnson the ball.
  • Jacksonville's DE Tony Brackens vs. New York's OT Jumbo Elliot...
    Tony Brakens is off to a quick start with 4 sacks in just as many games. The Jaguars will be sure to bring a lot of pressure from the linebacking corps to get to Rick Mirer, so Elliot will have to be able to handle the one-on-one responsibility of riding Brakens wide and forcing him out of the play.
  • Defensive coordinator Dom Capers has the Jaguars playing very aggressive football and pressuring opposing offenses to make quick decisions to the blitz. The Jags should be successful pressuring Rick Mirer and will should be able to cause turnovers from the blitz package.
  • The Jaguars need to target the Jet's corners by going up top to receivers Keenan McCardell and Smith. The Jaguar receivers have decisive size and speed advantages over the Jet's corners and should be able to contribute with some big plays from the vertical passing game.
  • The Jets are facing an effective Jacksonville running attack and will need SS Steve Atwater to be a presence in run-support without abandoning the secondary when Brunell runs playaction off the run.
  • Now that Mirer has learned more of the offensive system and understands more of the blitz package, defenses will back off more and the Jets will have to get more production out of Curtis Martin and the run game.