Washington Wizards: 2015-16 player profiles

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Here are our player scouting reports and 2015-16 projections for the Washington Wizards.

Projected starters

John Wall
Position: Guard
Experience: 5 years
2015-16 projections

Scouting report
+ Lightning-fast point guard with developing jumper
+ Elite distributor. Loves the right elbow
+ Excellent defender who blocks shots and blankets opponent

Analysis
Wall became more of a facilitator last season, notching his first double-digit assist average of his career while also seeing his scoring average dip from 19.3 to 17.6 points per game. Wall's 3-point shot crumbled after the All-Star break, and then he broke his left wrist in the Eastern Conference semifinals, torpedoing the Wizards' season.

Though Wall seemed to add a reliable 3-point shot in 2013-14, it wasn't a weapon last season. He shot just 30 percent from downtown last season and watched his pick-and-roll game suffer as defenders went under the screen. Among the 12 ball handlers with at least 500 pick-and-roll plays last season, Wall finished last in scoring efficiency on the play. Put it this way: MVP Stephen Curry scored 14 more points than Wall via pick-and-roll and needed 139 fewer plays to do it, per Synergy tracking. Turns out having a good jump shot helps.

Wall can get a little carried away with his turnovers, but you'll live with it if he scores 20 points and sets up another 20. Quietly, Wall's best attribute may be his defense, where he ranked fourth among all point guards in defensive RPM. The Wizards were horrid on both ends when Wall stepped off the floor, but the bigger impact was felt on the defensive end, where they hemorrhaged 104.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench. The only thing keeping Wall from entering the MVP conversation is his 3-point shot.

Bradley Beal
Position: Guard
Experience: 3 years
2015-16 projections

Scouting report
+ Elite 3-point shooter plagued by mid-range love affair
+ Can handle the rock. Weirdly better on playoff stage
+ Can't seem to stay healthy, but still young

Analysis
Will the real Bradley please stand up? The Florida product finished his second standout playoff performance last season averaging 23.4 points, 4.6 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game thanks to more reliance on his 3-point shot. During the season, he looked like he had taken a step back in his development and became maddeningly complacent with his shot selection.

Beal leaves so much money on the table with his obsession with the long 2. Last season, he took about 100 more mid-range shots than 3-pointers despite the 3-pointer being twice as rewarding.

Defenses are giving him the pull-up mid-range shot for a reason: It's a winning defensive play. Beal posted one of the worst pick-and-roll efficiencies last season precisely because he was hell-bent on taking a mid-range shot where he can't get to the line or make them at a high rate. Among 53 players who used at least 250 pick-and-roll plays last season, only Michael Carter-Williams shot worse on pick-and-roll finishes than Beal (34.9 percent), according to Synergy tracking.

Beal did better in the playoffs, but putting aside that he's missed 54 games in his first three seasons, he's still ways away from fulfilling his potential. Under a different coach, he may get there. But under Randy Wittman, Beal seems like a player who will be happy to settle rather than attack.

Otto Porter
Position: Forward
Experience: 2 years
2015-16 projections

Scouting report
+ Sixth man wing who may be ripe for starting role
+ Lives in corners, but can thrive in transition
+ Breakout postseason after iffy first two years

Analysis
Otto Porter, we've been waiting for you. The 22-year-old from Georgetown excelled in the postseason as a surprise stretch 4 tweener. The wing averaged 10 points and eight rebounds in the playoffs while striking from the corners and getting out in the open court.

Porter's ascension was a bit overdue. He was a mess in his injury-riddled rookie season, but he played much better when he was surrounded by talent rather than anchoring a second unit in his sophomore season. A 3-and-D prospect out of college, already RPM considers him an above-average player at his position. He'll need to add muscle if he wants to play more at the 4, but he seems eager to please.

With Wall, Beal and Porter on the roster, it's hard to see why the Wizards don't just try to outrun everybody. Then you remember that Paul Pierce and Nene manned their three and four spots. A big year for Porter lies ahead.

Nene Hilario
Position: Forward
Experience: 13 years
2015-16 projections

Scouting report
+ Skilled big man who spends too much time on post-ups
+ Playmaker when motivated. Awful from left block
+ Health dictates defensive impact. Fragile

Analysis
It's hard to depend on the guy anymore. The 33-year-old has missed 30 percent of his regular-season games over the past four seasons and basically can't bring it come playoff time. The Wizards have to put Nene on the Tim Duncan regimen at this point. He shouldn't be playing in 13 back-to-backs like he did last season.

In some ways, he's the Dwyane Wade of big men. When he's feeling good, he looks great. But when he's gimpy, man, it's hard to watch sometimes. Among the 30 big men who registered at least 200 post-up plays, Nene finished 29th in post-up efficiency, per Synergy. He's especially rough on the left block, where he just can't get enough lift anymore to draw fouls or create separation. He's a good passer out of the block, so it's not all bad when he goes down there. But he should be featured there less if Otto Porter and Jared Dudley get some minutes at the 4.

Nene posts solid numbers on the defensive end, but he's stopped trying to block shots and he's no longer rebounding. He was almost unplayable in the playoffs thanks to shoulder and ankle issues. It's probably best for both parties if he takes regular time off rather than trying to play through bumps and bruises.

Marcin Gortat
Position: Center
Experience: 8 years
2015-16 projections

Scouting report
+ Bulldozing big man who drives to the rim at elite level
+ Solid baseline jumper, but mostly lives in paint
+ Good defender who won't chase blocks

Analysis
Gortat hasn't made the Wizards look dumb after signing him to a five-year, $60 million deal. The 6-foot-11 Polish Hammer bludgeons the basket area with rim runs and offensive boards. He shot 56.6 percent from the floor in the regular season and 62.8 percent in the playoffs, underlining his ability to convert high-value shots.

Simply put, he's a burly big man straight out of the 1990s. His range only extends to the foul line, but that's OK as long as he's surrounded by shooters. That's usually not the case. The basket area can get really congested with another paint-dwelling big man like Nene, but that's not Gortat's fault.

He's getting up there in age, however. He'll turn 32 in February, and he fell apart in the Eastern Conference semifinals without a healthy John Wall to feed him down low. With so much of Gortat's game depending on mobility, it has to be concerning for the Wizards, who have no real backup this season. Gortat has been durable, but those miles add up.

Reserves See more Insider player profiles