Week 8 NFL betting cheat sheet
— -- It's Week 8 of the NFL season. Chalk's Vegas experts have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's action, included together in one handy file.
Dave Tuley
Last week: 1-5 against the spread with best bets (marked with an *); 2-1 with over/under best bets; 4-2 ATS on picks on all other games; 1-1 on O/U leans.
Season to date: 25-18-1 (58.1 percent) on ATS best bets, including loss on Jacksonville 3 on Thursday night; 12-12 with O/U best bets; 30-30-1 on ATS leans; 6-5 on over/under leans.
Mike Clay
Last week: 5-7 on ATS best bets; 9-3 with O/U best bets.
Season: 40-27-2 (59.7 percent) on ATS best bets; 34-28 (56.5 percent) on O/U best bets.
Erin Rynning
Last week: 1-1 on ATS best bets; 2-1 on O/U best bets.
Season: 7-9 (43.8 percent) on ATS best bets; 12-9 (57.1 percent) on O/U best bets, including loss on Jacksonville-Tennessee under Thursday night; 4-2 ATS on leans.
Rufus Peabody
Last week: 3-2 on ATS best bets; 0-2 on O/U best bets; 0-0 on ATS leans.
Season: 9-9 (50 percent) on ATS best bets; 3-7 (30 percent) on O/U best bets; 5-4-2 on ATS leans, including Tennessee -3 on Thursday night; 0-2 on O/U leans.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Matchup: Washington Redskins vs. Cincinnati Bengals (in London)
Spread: Opened Cincinnati -3; now Cincinnati -3
Total: Opened 46.5; now 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent Cincinnati
Public perception: The public is decidedly on the Bengals, which is a little surprising, as they're not the biggest public team. Maybe there are a bunch of people thinking Cincinnati is at home (and thus should be laying more points). Part of it could be people who had the Redskins last week are fading them after seeing how poorly they played at Detroit.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are split on this game, as the line has hardly budged. It's not easy to handicap which team will fare better after the trip overseas.
Dave Tuley's take: I'm one of those who was disappointed in how the Redskins played last week, even though they nearly pulled out the victory, but they're the type of middle-of-the-road team that the Bengals are usually able to handle. I'll pass on the side, but I like the over. These are the No. 5 and No. 6 offenses in the league, and they both have fairly balanced attacks with more than 110 rushing yards per game and 270 passing yards per game. The Redskins are also 5-1 with the over, and the Bengals are 4-3. Unfortunately, the over/under was still 46.5 Wednesday, and I was planning to make it a best bet, but with the move to 48, I'll just call it a lean.
The pick: Lean to Over 48 (lean to Bengals -3)
Rufus Peabody's take:
Washington's easy early season schedule grinds to a halt, as the Redskins face the Bengals in this week's London game. Washington was (marginally) better than Detroit last week, despite losing by three, but the Redskins were hurt by self-inflicted wounds, with a missed field goal attempt and two lost fumbles. And after a go-ahead score with a minute left, their porous defense allowed the Lions to score with remarkable ease. Cincinnati's offense rolled over Cleveland, thanks to a season-best play-success rate of 59 percent, but its defense surprisingly struggled. This has the makings of a shootout, and I like over at 47.
Pick: Over 47
Massey-Peabody Line: Cincinnati -2.1; total: 50.9
Erin Rynning's take:
Despite scoring only 17 points last week against the Lions and 16 against the Ravens on Oct. 9, the Redskins are still a good offensive team. They managed more than 400 yards of offense last week, while missing key cog Jordan Reed. The Ravens' game featured tremendous wind, which kept the scoring down. Overall, the Redskins are averaging 6.2 yards per play, which ranks second in the NFL. The Bengals' defense is 25th in yards per play, making them vulnerable to the deep ball and DeSean Jackson. Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert is expected to pick up his workload in this contest, as he played only 15 snaps last week in his return. Cincinnati's offense ranks fifth in the NFL in yards per play, but a troubling 29th in red zone touchdown percentage. Eifert makes a difference there, and the Bengals' offense finished sixth last year in red zone touchdown percentage with a healthy Eifert. This one goes over.
Play: Over
Matchup: Detroit Lions at Houston Texans
Spread: Opened Houston -3 (EVEN); now Houston -2.5
Total: Opened 46; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent Detroit
Public perception: The public has been getting on the Lions' bandwagon, as they've won three straight (over the Eagles, Rams and Redskins). The Texans didn't pick up any supporters with their 27-9 loss at Denver on national TV Monday night.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps have mostly stayed away from this game. It opened Houston -3 (EVEN) Sunday afternoon at the Westgate and sat there until being taken off the board.
Dave Tuley's take: There are some good reasons to take the Lions as underdogs here, mostly due to their three-game winning streak, though it should be pointed out that all three were at home and now they head on the road -- plus their last road game was a loss at Chicago. They did win at Indianapolis in Week 1 and pushed at Green Bay in Week 3, but I'm also concerned that their lack of a running game won't be able to keep the Texans' pass rush honest. The number is just a little short for me to make it a best bet.
The pick: Lean to Lions 2.5 (would be best bet at 3)
Rufus Peabody's take:
Detroit sits at a surprising 4-3 after Matthew Stafford led a last-minute touchdown drive to beat Washington. Every single one of Detroit's games has been decided by a touchdown or less. Detroit is a below-average team, ranking 22nd in the Massey-Peabody ratings, but is still significantly better than a Houston team that continues to earn respect from the market, despite a woeful offense and a defense that has regressed without J.J. Watt. Houston was able to run the ball well against Denver (mostly due to some nifty draw plays that caught Denver off guard), but Brock Osweiler turned in the worst passing performance of the weekend by far. I like Detroit as a play at 2.5 (EVEN) or better and lean Detroit at 2.5, -110.
Pick: Detroit 2.5 (EVEN), Over 45
Massey-Peabody Line: Detroit -0.1; total: 48.8
Erin Rynning's take:
Once again, the Texans' offense looked dreadful Monday night, scoring only nine points against the rugged Broncos defense. On closer inspection, the Texans have mightily struggled on the road with their offense, but the opposition has been the Broncos, Vikings and Patriots. Arguably that's as tough as it gets, but this team is 4-0 at home, while averaging 23.8 points per game. Its passing game will have a monumental opportunity to click against the Lions' passing defense, which is ranked 28th in the NFL, allowing 7.8 yards per attempt. In addition, the Lions will most likely be without top corner Darius Slay in this matchup Sunday. I give credit to Stafford for delivering wins for the Lions in their past three games, but they were outgained in all three victories, and this offense continues to be one-dimensional, devoid of a running game. Look for the Texans to get another home win by the point-spread margin.
Play: Texans
Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Opened Seattle -3.5; now Seattle -2.5 (-120)
Total: Opened 47.5; now 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Seattle
Public perception: The public used to always back the Saints at home, but even with New Orleans having the No. 2 offense and averaging 29.3 points per game, the public is more willing to back the Seahawks.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps have been backing the home underdog here, taking New Orleans at 3.5 and 3 and moving the line to 2.5 at several books.
Dave Tuley's take: I usually love home underdogs, but I'm actually siding with the public here. The Seahawks' offense was terrible at Arizona on Sunday night, but the cure might be facing the Saints' No. 29 defense. And if any team can slow down Drew Brees & Co., it's Seattle. In fact, even though I expect the Seahawks to break out of their funk, I don't think they'll light up the scoreboard, and this should stay comfortably under the rather high total of 48.
The pick: Under 48* (lean to Seattle -2.5)
Rufus Peabody's take:
Seattle got very, very lucky to escape Phoenix with a tie last week. Yet, Massey-Peabody still ranks Seattle as the second-best team in the NFL. Why? Because its defense has played great (which was expected), and we can't completely throw out our quantitatively-based forecast going into the season for Seattle's offense after six games. New Orleans was unlucky in losing by six in Kansas City; the Saints outperformed the Chiefs by 6.1 points, grading the game based on fundamentals predictive of future performance. New Orleans had a play success rate of 64.8 percent, the third-highest mark by any team this season, but lost the turnover battle (2-0) and was penalized 45 more yards than their opponent. I don't have a play on either the side or total here.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Seattle -2.4; total: 50.0
Matchup: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Opened New England -5.5; now New England -6
Total: Opened 47.5; now 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 88 percent New England
Public perception: The public is overwhelmingly on the Patriots as they continue to roll along since Tom Brady's return. The Bills were seeing more support in recent weeks, but are coming off a disappointing 28-25 loss at Miami.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps have also jumped on the bandwagon at the lower lines (this game opened between -4 and -6.5 and all the lower numbers have disappeared). New England will also again be among the most popular teaser plays.
Dave Tuley's take: I would normally be all over the divisional home underdog here, especially since the Bills won the earlier meeting 16-0 in Week 4. Of course, that was the last game the Patriots played without Brady and were forced to start a less-than-100-percent Jacoby Brissett?at QB. Bill Belichick hasn't been swept by a divisional rival since he started coaching New England, so it's hard to fade the Patriots in this revenge spot.
The pick: Lean to Bills 6
Rufus Peabody's take:
The Bills are getting about as much respect from the market this week as the Steelers got last week without Ben Roethlisberger. That is ludicrous, since the Bills, despite a poor showing in South Florida last week, are still a solidly above-average team. The Bills boast the best and most diverse rushing offense in the league. The Patriots are far-and-away the best team in the NFL, but as so often is the case, prices are going to be a little inflated on the best teams, especially when they are as public as New England. Massey-Peabody gives the Patriots a 62 percent chance of pulling off the road victory, but that translates an expected margin of 3.6. I'll take Buffalo 6.5.
Pick: Buffalo 6.5
Massey-Peabody Line: New England -3.6; total: 47.1
Matchup: New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Opened New York -4.5; now New York -3
Total: Opened 43; now 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent Cleveland
Public perception: The Jets are coming off a 24-16 win over the Ravens, and one would think the public would be all over them against the winless Browns, but one would be wrong. The public is reacting to the dysfunction around the Jets' team, as Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched but is back at quarterback after Geno Smith's season-ending knee injury.
Wiseguys' view: This game was off the board earlier in the week due to the Browns' just-as-messed-up QB situation.
Dave Tuley's take: After losing on the Browns 10 at Cincinnati last week, my friend Roger asked me to make a pact that neither of us would play the Browns any more this season, but I replied that I didn't know if I could do that if Josh McCown returns. With? Cody Kessler?still in the concussion protocol and McCown listed as probable, this line has been adjusted down to 3, and that's a good sign that the oddsmakers also expect McCown to play.
The pick: Browns 3*
Rufus Peabody's take:
Cleveland continues to exhaust its quarterbacking options, but its offense has actually not been as bad as anticipated. The Browns' defense has been a train wreck, though, ranking dead last according to Massey-Peabody. Smith's injury saved head coach Todd Bowles from his worst enemy -- himself. Fitzpatrick is the superior quarterback, and his re-insertion in the starting lineup portends good things for the Jets, who have faced the toughest schedule in football so far this year. Believe it or not, despite their 2-5 record, the Jets still have an outside shot at the playoffs in our simulations (9.5 percent).
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: New York Jets -5.4; total: 40.6
Matchup: Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Opened Tampa Bay -1; now pick 'em
Total: Opened 49.5; now 50
PickCenter public consensus pick: 80 percent Oakland
Public perception: The Raiders have fast been becoming a very public team (and not just here in their possible future home of Las Vegas), and with them finally shedding that "Raiders can't win in an early game in the Eastern time zone" label, the public is really on them.
Wiseguys' view: In the face of all that public money, the sharps have actually backed the favorite here and bet the Buccaneers from -1 to -1.5. Still, the Raiders will be a popular teaser play for sharps and squares alike.
Dave Tuley's take: Tampa Bay has won two straight, but the Bucs stop here (get it?). Both of those wins were on the road, where they're 0-2 ATS so far on the season, and we've seen the Raiders can now travel, with road wins at New Orleans, Tennessee, Baltimore and Jacksonville. The Bucs aren't any better than those teams. The Raiders are still the No. 32 defense, but the offense keeps plugging along and getting the job done. I'm tempted to go with the over as well, but it's set high at 50, so I'll stick with the Raiders.
The pick: Raiders pick-em*
Rufus Peabody's take:
Oakland sits at 5-2 but still has only a 49.2 percent chance of the playoffs. Why? Just because they are 5-2 doesn't mean they are playing like a 5-2 team. Oakland ranks 19th in the Massey-Peabody ratings, due in large part to a defense that has yielded 6.8 yards per play, worst in the NFL. Still, that's a little deceiving. The Raiders have been victimized by nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, most in the NFL and Oakland's play-success-rate allowed (49.0 percent) is only 22nd in football. Where Oakland has been fortunate is the turnover department, with a differential of plus-8, tied for second-best in football. Oakland faces a 3-3 Tampa Bay team that is also much worse than its record would indicate. No value on the side here, but I like under 49.5.
Pick: Under 49.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Tampa Bay -0.2; total: 45.9
Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Opened Kansas City -2.5; now Kansas City -3 (EVEN)
Total: Opened 49.5; now 50
PickCenter public consensus pick: 65 percent Kansas City
Public perception: We're seeing the Colts and? Andrew Luck continue to get less public support, which is surprising since you would expect them to attract money as home underdogs after coming off an upset win at Tennessee (though maybe it's still fresher in the public's mind how the Colts choked in the previous week's Sunday night game against a Texans team that just got dominated by the Broncos in prime time).
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are split on this game. The ones who like the Chiefs snapped up the -2.5s but just as many side with the Colts at 3.
Dave Tuley's take: This game looks as if it could be scripted: The Chiefs pound the running game to get an early lead, then they try to grind out a win with more runs with? Alex Smith completing short passes underneath; meanwhile, Luck mounts his usual comeback. Now, I'm not sure if the Colts pull it out or not, but I think this stays under 50 points with a virtual running clock, so I'll go with the under and pass on the side.
The pick: Under 50* (lean to Kansas City -3)
Rufus Peabody's take:
Kansas City is very, very fortunate to have won last week, yielding a 64.8 percent-play-success rate to the New Orleans offense, benefiting from a plus-2 turnover margin and plus-45 penalty-yard difference. Indianapolis has a better offense than Kansas City -- owing in part to its play on the field this year, and in part to the upside that Luck provides over Smith -- but the differences in defense quality is vast. Still, this game should be basically a pick 'em -- Massey-Peabody makes the Colts a 0.4-point favorite. I lean Colts at 2.5, make them a play at 2.5 (EVEN) and lean under 50.
Pick: Lean Indianapolis 2.5, Lean Under 50
Massey-Peabody Line: Indianapolis -0.4; total: 47.2
Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Opened Carolina -1.5; now Carolina -3
Total: Opened 48; now 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent Arizona
Public perception: Public support is more in favor of the Cardinals now, though it was closer to 50/50 at lower lines. Bettors on the Panthers are thinking they're too good to start 1-6.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps jumped on Carolina at -1.5 at the Westgate and other books that opened lower than a field goal; those who like Arizona are glad to get the 3.
Dave Tuley's take: If I'm making a play of the week, this has to be it. Granted, Arizona squandered a chance to gain a game on the Seahawks in the NFC West last Sunday night, but it should get back on the winning track here. The Cardinals' No. 8 offense was kept out of the end zone by Seattle's D but should fare much better on the Panthers' No. 24-ranked unit, while the defense (ranked No. 2) should harass? Cam Newton?all afternoon.
The pick: Cardinals 3*
Rufus Peabody's take:
A lot of people have questioned how the Massey-Peabody ratings can have 1-5 Carolina as the third-rated team in the NFL. My ratings are predictive, not explanatory, though, and the Panthers are not as bad as their record indicates -- they are minus-8 in turnover margin -- nor do I expect them to be as bad as they've played thus far. Carolina's offense hasn't been the problem, in terms of the stats that matter predictively, at least; the Panthers are 13th in the NFL in yards per play and second in play success. The large dichotomy is attributable to their inability to generate big plays: While Carolina ranks third in the NFL in percentage of plays that gain 10 or more yards (23.8 percent), it is tied for 25th in pass plays of 25 or more yards.
The market doesn't believe in the Panthers to the same degree that my model does, but we are close enough that there isn't any value here.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Carolina -4.1; total: 47.8
Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
Spread: Opened Denver -6.5; now Denver -4.5
Total: Opened 44.5; now 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent San Diego
Public perception: The Broncos are usually much more of a public team, but the public is really starting to like this Chargers team: they're fun to watch, and their games usually come down to the final minutes (or go to overtime like last week's upset in Atlanta).
Wiseguys' view: This line opened with Denver -6 and -6.5, depending on where you were shopping, but sharp money drove it down early with the public joining the fun.
Dave Tuley's take: I was on the Chargers when they upset the Broncos 21-13 as 3-point home favorites in the Thursday night game of Week 6. Not much has changed since then, well, except that the Chargers went into Atlanta and beat a team that came to Denver in Week 5 and also beat the Broncos. So, there's no doubt the Chargers can play with the Broncos, and I'll look for another upset (though I'll take the points, just in case yet another Chargers game comes down to a late field goal).
The pick: Chargers 4.5*
Rufus Peabody's take:
When everyone was busy writing off the Chargers after their three agonizing losses in four games, I still thought they were a good team. Following back-to-back wins over Denver and Atlanta, perception is getting closer to reality. Interestingly, San Diego hasn't made a major jump in the Massey-Peabody ratings over the past two games; the Chargers actually graded out slightly below average against the Broncos. The big difference over the past two weeks is that the Chargers haven't experienced bad turnover luck. Still, during the course of the year, the Chargers have lost an NFL-high 11 fumbles, three more than any other team. The Chargers are a play at 5 or better.
Pick: San Diego 5.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Denver -2.7; total: 42.3
Erin Rynning's take:
These two teams met just over two weeks ago with stagnant offense ruling the night air. The Chargers produced strong offense early in that contest, throwing the football to their tight ends and running backs before the Broncos adjusted. San Diego had trouble moving the football after Wade Phillips made the necessary adjustments, and it will find moving the football difficult Sunday against the second-ranked stop unit in yards per play. In addition, this Chargers offense is currently overrated, and note the weak defensive schedule they've played -- sandwiched around the Broncos -- which included the Falcons, Raiders, Saints and Colts. There's no question this Broncos offense wants to continue its conservative ways under quarterback Trevor Siemian, while ranking 26th in the NFL in yards per game. I'm accounting for the difference Joey Bosa is making with this Chargers defense as a true impact defensive performer as well. I like the under.
Play: Under
Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Opened Atlanta -3; now Atlanta -3
Total: Opened 52.5; now 53
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent Atlanta
Public perception: The public is usually on the Packers, but ESPN's PickCenter shows (and other bet-tracking sides agree) that the public is siding slightly here with the Falcons, who got off to a fast start and have the more explosive offense.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are split on this matchup. They've snapped up the Falcons at -2.5, but when lines have gone to -3 (-120), they've taken the Packers 3 (EVEN).
Dave Tuley's take: I'm a little torn here. The NFL Vegas Rankings have the Packers as a value play, but I have the Falcons rated a little higher (as I have all year, since they were my long-shot value bet to win the Super Bowl). The Packers beat the Bears soundly a week ago on Thursday night, but they're facing a much tougher team now. Green Bay is highly rated against the run, but we saw the Cowboys run for 191 yards on them, so that was more a product of a soft schedule and playing with leads. The Falcons should run just fine on them, and I don't see the Packers having an answer for Julio Jones. I would love to take Aaron Rodgers plus a field goal, but I just can't pull the trigger.
The pick: Lean to Atlanta -3 (-120)
Rufus Peabody's take:
Atlanta's explosive offense was held in check by San Diego, posting its worst offensive game grade since Week 1, but the Falcons still are dangerous, and rate (predictively) as the fourth-best offense in football, according to Massey-Peabody. I expect some regression to the mean from Green Bay's offense, which has been below average this season, as, despite Rodgers' recent struggles, we can't ignore his track record. The Packers' defense, which Massey-Peabody ranks sixth in the NFL, has flown under the radar. The Packers are a play at 2.5 (EVEN) or better, and I expect the total to go under 52.5.
Pick: Packers 2.5 100, Under 52.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Packers -0.04; total: 48.0
Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Opened Dallas -4.5; now Dallas -4.5
Total: Opened 43.5; now 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent Dallas
Public perception: In the battle of rookie QBs with Carson Wentz and the Eagles facing Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, the public is siding with the 135th overall pick over the No. 2 pick, though Prescott also has rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott on his side. Prescott has the Cowboys off to a 5-1 start with the Eagles at 4-2. Wentz has thrown eight touchdown passes to seven for Prescott, though Prescott leads in yards (1,486 vs. 1,324) and fewer interceptions (one compared to three).
Wiseguys' view: The sharps have mostly been split on this game as the line was bet up to Dallas -5 at some books, but some sharp offshore books have been getting down to -4 coming into the weekend, so we're starting to see more support for Philadelphia.
Dave Tuley's take: I think this line should be closer to a field goal, so there's some inherent line value on the underdog Eagles. Prescott and the Cowboys' offense has the edge, but the Eagles are winning just as much with their defense, which is ranked No. 5 in yards allowed and giving up just 14.7 points per game. The public also tends to like teams off a bye (and the last time we saw the Cowboys they were winning convincingly at Green Bay), but I actually think that could work against them as they were on such a roll. The Eagles, meanwhile, are coming off an impressive 21-10 win over the previously undefeated Vikings and they should match up just as well with the Cowboys.
The pick: Eagles 4.5*.
Erin Rynning's take:
Arguably, the bye week hit Dallas at the wrong time in the midst of its marvelous run of 5-0 both SU and ATS. However, key cog Dez Bryant is expected back for this Sunday night tilt, while the offensive line is back to 100 percent as well. This Cowboys' offensive line is playing dominating football and they'll hold a huge advantage rested and ready against the smallish Eagles' front seven. This Eagles defense has performed extremely well, but against this offensive line and balanced Dallas approach, things might not go as smoothly.
Give Carson Wentz credit for his impeccable first few games as a rookie, but his strength of opposition has come up soft. The Cowboys' benefit from extra time to prepare and scout Wentz and slow this Eagles offense down. This is a trick line (laying over a field goal in a division affair), but I'll lean toward Dallas.
Play: Lean to the Cowboys
John Parolin's prop bet takes:
92.5 rush yards by Ezekiel Elliott (O/U -110)
On the surface, the Eagles' rush defense has been solid this year. Philadelphia has allowed 102.7 rush yards per game, 14th in the league, and opponents have only attempted 22.7 rushes per game against the Eagles (fifth fewest). But the peripherals show a major source of concern against a Cowboys offense that features Elliott and an excellent offensive line.
Philadelphia's 4.5 yards per rush allowed is the ninth highest in the league and most of it has come before contact. The Eagles rank 21st in yards before contact per rush (2.7), an area in which Dallas excels. The Cowboys average 94.8 rush yards before contact per game, with a per-rush average of 2.82. For Elliott in particular? That's up to 3.07 per rush, seventh among qualified rushers and a gateway to big plays for a player with Zeke's explosive ability. Philadelphia knows this dynamic -- they've given up at least 20 yards on six rushes this year, tied for third most in the league. That's come against the Browns, Bears, Steelers (without Le'Veon Bell), Lions, Redskins and Vikings (without Adrian Peterson). None of the backs Philadelphia has faced are remotely on Elliott's level.
Play: Over
62.5 receiving yards by Jordan Matthews (O/U -110)
Let's dispel the workload concerns first with Jordan Matthews. He leads all Eagles receivers with 38 targets, 25 receptions and 354 yards. He's targeted on over one-fifth of his routes run. Matthews is the primary target on the Eagles' offense.
Logic stands that a team with a 5-1 record will be passed on a lot, and the Cowboys are no exception. Sixty-eight percent of plays against the Cowboys defense have been pass plays, second highest in the league. Also, the team may be 5-1, but is the defense really that much better? Dallas is allowing a 66.8 completion percentage, sixth in the league, and a 7.2 yards per attempt mark that's right around the league average.
In only six games played this season, the Cowboys have allowed nine different players to reach at least 63 receiving yards, including top targets Alshon Jeffery, Jordy Nelson, Jordan Reed and Odell Beckham Jr.. Matthews should reach the low total.
Play: Over
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