World Series roundtable: Who will win and which player could be the difference?

ByESPN MLB INSIDERS
October 24, 2016, 1:32 PM

— -- How confident are you in your World Series pick? Which manager has the edge? We asked our experts for five predictions heading into the Chicago Cubs- Cleveland Indians series, and they answered (also, check out our World Series experts picks):

How confident are you in your prediction?

Scott Lauber (Indians in ?7): Well, considering I didn't think the Indians would get by the Red Sox before picking them to lose to the Blue Jays, not very confident. By now, though, even I can no longer deny there's something special happening in Cleveland, where Terry Francona has a touch so golden that King Midas would be jealous. It's only a matter of time before the loaded Cubs bust the ghosts of 1908, but the Indians have a torturous 68-year championship drought of their own to quench. It ends here.

Bradford Doolittle (Cubs in 5): Very. The Cubs are on a different level than the Indians. Over the course of the season, the Cubs were 16 games better than the Indians by Pythagorean record. You can chip away at that margin in a lot of ways -- how strong the Indians' bullpen has been post-break, their edge in the running game, Cleveland's undeserved home-field advantage, etc. -- but there's no way to fully account for that margin. The Cubs are good at everything, are balanced across the board and at the moment are firing on all cylinders.

David Schoenfield (Cubs in 5): Not very confident. You'd be foolish to feel otherwise in a world where the Twins could beat the Cubs in a seven-game series. Heck, just this season the Rockies beat the Cubs four out of six games and the Braves split six games with the Cubs. Anything can happen, and in what projects as a low-scoring series a little bloop here, an error there, a key stolen base, could make all the difference.

Key player for each team?

Lauber: Jon Lester is an honest-to-goodness postseason ace, Kyle Hendricks is proving he doesn't wilt in the glare of October and this isn't John Lackey's first rodeo. But the Cubs' rotation hinges on Jake Arrieta . If the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner shows up, the Cubs are downright unbeatable. If the Indians can rock him like the Dodgers did, they have a chance.

The Indians disposed of the Red Sox and Blue Jays with primarily a two-man rotation and with Andrew Miller and Cody Allen doing the heavy lifting in the bullpen. Danny Salazar hasn't pitched since Sept. 9 because of tightness in his right forearm, but if he's ready to return, even if it's only in a relief role, Francona will have a powerful X factor at his disposal.

Doolittle: Anthony Rizzo for the Cubs. If he builds his last couple of games into a hot streak, he can put up some runs against Cleveland's righty starters and keep the Indians' chances to leverage the back of their bullpen to a minimum. For the Indians, it's a tie between Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin . The just need someone to help Corey Kluber take some of the pressure off of Terry Francona and the bullpen.

Schoenfield: Andrew Miller might be the logical answer for the Indians, but I'll go with Corey Kluber. The Indians don't have to win his starts -- their only loss in the ALCS came in one of his outings -- but it kind of feels like they might have to, as you can't expect Josh Tomlin and Trevor Bauer and maybe Ryan Merritt to put a bunch of zeroes on the board. Plus, it's key for Kluber to go deep into games, so Terry Francona can then use Miller for extended innings in the other games. It's even possible Francona will consider starting Kluber in Games 1, 4 and 7.

For the Cubs, I'll go with Jake Arrieta, who is likely slated for Games 2 and 6. He had a 3.69 ERA in the second half and two so-so starts so far in the playoffs. He's vulnerable and if Kluber beats Jon Lester in Game 1, the pressure shifts to Arrieta.

How many innings will Andrew Miller throw (and how many K's will he have in those innings)?

Lauber: Set the over-under at 20 outs, and if you're picking the Indians, take the over. Against the Blue Jays, Miller faced 25 batters and got 23 outs, 14 by strikeout. Miller will take outs any way he can get them (ground balls were the method du jour in Game 5 versus Toronto), but with the Indians more likely to win close games than blowouts against the Cubs' stingy starting pitching, the lights-out lefty will probably need to get 5-6 outs per win.

Doolittle: Six innings, nine strikeouts. Since I'm picking the Cubs in five, that pretty much means I think Chicago can jump on Cleveland's starters early, and the Indians won't be able to do the same to the Cubs' rotation. By definition, that limits how much impact Miller can have. If Cleveland is getting early leads, it's a whole other story.

Schoenfield:?I think he'll end up averaging two innings per game, minus one inning from the 3-4-5 trio of games. So if it goes five games, I'll say nine innings and 14 strikeouts. If it goes seven games, I'll say 13 innings and 19 strikeouts. Francona has to push him hard and hope for the best.

Who will be the unsung hero (guy nobody is talking about heading in) who could have a big impact?

Lauber: If the Indians are going to win the series, they will have to find a way to get to Jon Lester. That's where Rajai Davis might come in. Holding runners and fielding his position aren't Lester's strong suits, and Davis has a track record for reaching base against him throughout his career (14-for-46, four walks, .373 OBP). Davis has good numbers against John Lackey (12-for-35), too. He could be a difference-maker.

Doolittle: Willson Contreras. Almost everybody on the Cubs has gotten their turn in the limelight, but I don't feel like Contreras is getting as much attention as he deserves. He not only has been the Cubs' best hitter during the playoffs, but his catch-and-throw ability could be crucial to controlling Cleveland's running game.

Schoenfield:?Rajai Davis could be big for the Indians. He led the AL steals and Lester and Arrieta and, to a less extent, Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey, are vulnerable to the steal. Davis normally only starts against LHP, but with Tyler Naquin striking out nine times in 16 plate appearances so far in the postseason, I wonder if Davis gets some starts against RHP.

Which manager will get the tactical edge?

Lauber: Another tough call. Joe Maddon and Terry Francona are as good as it gets in terms of both in-game strategy and saying the right things off the field to put their players at ease. But Francona is on a roll for the ages right now. He beat out Maddon for Boston's managerial job before the 2004 season, then lost to him when the Tampa Bay Rays edged the Red Sox in a seven-game ALCS in 2008. The rubber match will go to Francona, by the narrowest of margins.

Doolittle: Joe Maddon. Both of these clubs are deep in position players, and Francona has three premier switch-hitters to go with several legit platoon options. But I like Maddon's ability to match up better with his bullpen from a tactical standpoint. The Cubs don't have anybody in the pen as lights-out as Miller or Cody Allen, but Maddon has more levers to pull.

Schoenfield:?One thing Francona has done is have a plan (and his pitchers have executed). Even the way he set up his rotation makes sense. He went with Bauer over Tomlin (who has been pitching better) in Game 2, hoping Kluber gives the Indians enough innings in Game 1, meaning he can have a quick hook with Bauer. And Tomlin gets the Game 3 start with the idea that he'll go deeper into the game, since there will be three games in three days.

Maddon has more toys to play with, including a bullpen he can match up lefty-lefty or righty-righty when needed. He still seems a little unsure about when to use Aroldis Chapman, at first being reluctant to use him in the eighth inning and seeing Chapman struggle with inherited runners, although the five-out save in Game 6 of NLCS might relieve some of those concerns.

Put it this way: I don't think we'll have too much second-guessing in this series. Which takes some of the fun out of it.