Is a 'Katrina-Like' Space Storm Brewing?

Might Have to Go Analog

Satellites and GPS systems could be knocked out.

As ABC's Clayton Sandell has written for this site before: "Solar storms could make GPS receivers unable to lock onto a satellite signal, rendering them useless. The effect could last for minutes or more than a day. You may be reduced to -- gasp -- stopping to ask for directions."

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"The civilian use of GPS has really taken off only in the last few years, so we really do expect to see a much wider impact in this upcoming cycle," said Douglas Biesecker, a solar physicist at the Space Weather Prediction Center in Colorado, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Sales of so-called personal navigation devices -- those manufactured by companies like Magellan and Garmin, for example -- have skyrocketed in recent years. In 2004, worldwide sales of GPS units were about 2 million. By 2007, that number had jumped to about 27 million, according to technology analysts at ABI Research.

A failure of the GPS system could have serious ramifications for flying. The Federal Aviation Administration is trying to move to an air traffic control system based on GPS.

But the country is not making a lot of plans for the next big solar storm.

"Our society isn't geared toward dealing with these kinds of possibilities," said Baker, referring to the fact that a huge solar storm is a rare occurrence. "We are more concerned with short-term possibilities."

Solar weather isn't like the weather here on Earth. Meteorologists can track a storm for days and give residents plenty of warning of what is coming. That's not the case with space weather.

"We can't predict [a coming space storm] with any great lead time of accuracy," Baker said.

What he and his colleagues can predict is that we are not ready for "the big one" when it comes to solar storms.