The Election: Religion, Simulation and Prediction

The state probabilities can be combined in this way to yield a probability of winning the election as a whole since, if the election took place today, there's little reason to believe that sampling errors in the various states would be correlated. But things do happen, and this is not the case if what we want is a prediction of the November result and not the September result.

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Math: Gift from God or Work of Man?

Complexity and Intelligent Design

Some states tend to shift together over time, but more importantly and more generally the polls are particularly volatile during the two to three months before an election. There are the two conventions, the four debates, the inevitable gaffes and scandals, the advertising campaigns (the despicable but effective Swift Boat smear, for example), and external events, each of which can change the electoral total by 10 to 50 votes and which together can change it by much more.

So unless one candidate or the other is ahead by more than the algebraic sum of these anticipated swings, a prediction now is much less reliable than today's latest simulation, poll of polls, or online market might suggest. Combining the uncertainty of these various swings increases the overall uncertainty. In probability-speak, variances add. As we near the election, the opportunity for sudden swings in sentiment declines, and polls, simulations and markets become much more predictive of the actual result.

My Prediction

Finally, much has been written about the crucial importance of, and extreme interest in, the 2008 election. This is a welcome bit of news. It can, however, also be seen as an indication of how far from constitutional government we've come. If Congress had asserted itself more forcefully in recent years and occupied its rightful place as a co-equal branch of government, it would matter less which presidential candidate wins since he would not have quasi-imperial powers. Nevertheless, the races for the House and the Senate are also extremely important this year.

From the sputtering economy and health care to the disastrous Iraq war and the erosion of civil liberties (including the right not to be tortured), it seems that we're at a crossroads. According to a USA Today/Gallup poll, 80 percent of Americans say that we're heading down the wrong track. This poll is robust and unlikely to oscillate nearly as much as the daily polls of the candidates.