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Space Rock Found on Collision Course With Earth

For First Time, Scientists Predict an Asteroid's Impact

Impact probability The object's discovery is a reminder that larger and potentially more dangerous rocks might also be on a collision course with Earth.

Milani and Chesley are members of the only two groups in the world that calculate the probability that a given space rock will hit the Earth. They both say that they are delighted at how quickly this meteorite was determined to be on a collision course with Earth – since it was only discovered at about 0630 GMT on Monday.

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"For us, [we feel] satisfaction because our computation worked and because this kind of accident – which is without any risk that anybody [would be] hurt – will make people more aware of the fact that something has to be done about asteroids in case a bigger one arrives," Milani told New Scientist.

"The fact that we're able to make this prediction proves the system's working," says Chesley. "These sized objects are not the ones we're most concerned about – there are tens of thousands of much larger objects that could cause real damage on the ground that are still yet to be found."

Despite the advanced warning, there is probably too little time to mount a mission to observe the atmospheric impact from an aeroplane, as sometimes happens during known meteor showers, says Milani.

"But now that this is out in the public, anybody who has a telescope is going to be pointing it in that direction," Chesley says.

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