Why Behavior Overshadows Statistics
Oct. 1 -- If we’re sick or injured, we’re generally not satisfied with an explanationsuch as “These things just happen sometimes.”
A number of psychological studies suggest that we are more liable to attribute the occurrence of anunfortunate event to people rather than to chance, particularly if it isdramatic or has emotional implications.
In one study by psychologist Ed Walster, a group of subjects was told that aman parked his car on an incline and that it rolled down into a fire hydrantafter he walked away. Most of the group expressed tolerance and saidthey had had similar lapses.
Another group was told a slightly altered storyin which the car rolled into a pedestrian after the driver walked away. Themembers of this second group were much more critical of the man’s actions,vilified him, and tended to hold him responsible even though thenegligence was the same in both stories.
If things go seriously wrong, we’re predisposed to go looking for someoneresponsible.
Firestone Tires
Such studies bring to mind dramatic accusations in recent news stories and,in particular, of alleged executive wrongdoing in the Firestone-Ford case. First,let’s note the statistics behind the tire story. The New York Times made thestatistical basis of the complaint against Firestone much clearer when itnoted that fatal crashes of Ford Explorers, which use Firestone tires, werealmost 2.8 times as likely to involve faulty tires as fatal crashes of othersports utility vehicles.
Other ways of looking at the data — and there aremany — did not point to any problem with the tires.
This shouldn’t be that surprising for two reasons. First, relationshipsamong variables buried in mountains of data are often hard to find(although, given enough time, data-mining techniques can turn up all sortsof interesting ones, including many that are bogus).
The second reason is the rarity of the crashes. Despite the extensivecoverage, which probably suggests to many that treads have been flying offtires left and right, there was, on average, one tire-related fatal crash ofa Ford Explorer per 3 billion miles driven. About 100 of the roughly 160,000 automobile deaths during the years 1995 to 1998 were due to faulty tires. In contrast, about 80,000 of the 160,000 automobile deaths duringthese years involved alcohol. Even driving a lighter-than-average car is oneof many vastly more significant risks we assume when we take to the highway.
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