However, criminologist James Alan Fox of Northeastern University in Boston said a one-year drop in homicides doesn't prove much.
"There is a certain degree of randomness with homicide counts," Fox said. "When cities have large one-year drops, they tend to go up the following year. When cities have large one-year jumps, they tend to go down."
Homicides nationwide are down since the mid-1990s, but in the past eight years there have been few clear national or regional trends, Webster said.
The homicide total in Washington, D.C., was up slightly in 2008 to 185 killings, while Philadelphia experienced a 15 percent drop to just more than 330 homicides. Detroit saw a drop of about 13 percent with 344 killings, and Newark, N.J., had 104 homicides, a 32 percent decrease.
Critics have blamed Baltimore's homicide totals in part on turnover in the police commissioner's office. Slayings began declining almost immediately after Bealefeld, a Baltimore native with 27 years of experience in the department, took over in July. His message was simple: Target "bad guys with guns."
He also changed how police pursue warrants. Criminal history now dictates aggressive apprehension.
On a recent morning, several teams of officers fanned out in unmarked cars, each with a list of "priority warrants" — hundreds of names of suspects previously arrested or convicted in violent crimes.
Even though Danzy knocked on a dozen doors in three hours without making an arrest, he believed the strategy worked.
"It's an awesome idea. We've started focusing on the 1 or 2 percent that cause all the problems," Danzy said.
Stronger partnerships with state and federal agencies have also been critical.
U.S. Attorney Rod J. Rosenstein has made gun crime a priority since he took office in July 2005. His office helps target potential candidates for federal gun charges, which carry lengthier sentences.
"A large number of violent, repeat offenders in Baltimore city have been removed from the community for long periods of time; 10, 20, 30, 40 years," Rosenstein said. "We're getting the worst of the worst so they're not in a position to commit any more murders."