Transcript for Roundtable: Economic Troubles
At long last the new jobs numbers this week showed a glimmer of hope 80000 new jobs added unemployment down -- -- to 9%. It's something but it isn't enough or is it enough to convince voters that the tide is turning because right now they remain deeply pessimistic. I knew ABC news Washington Post poll shows that 63%. Of Americans. Believe the economy hasn't even begun to recover yet and that's a steep drop from the year ago. So let's bring in our roundtable George Will. The Huffington Post Arianna Huffington former George W. Bush strategist Matthew Dowd and historian and music columnist Niall Ferguson. -- of the new book civilization the west and the rest goes always -- senile but I know it's Neil thank you have. The mystery of exactly which -- about many things in Georgia Osgood about the unemployment numbers is that. Something of the trend is that just scratching says this is what difference is that intimate. Not much for first of all 80000 isn't nearly enough to accommodate even the natural growth month by month and that of the workforce -- to bits of good news in there. The 80000 -- and that number. The private sector created a 104000. Jobs the public sector happily shrank by 24000. Jobs both -- that's good here's the bad news. 46% of the unemployed have been unemployed for six months or more four million Americans have been unemployed for a year we know what happens. It's called human capital depreciation. Skills -- -- the very spirit that causes people to engage in economic life UK's. The result is if you've been unemployed for six months or more your lifetime earnings are apt to decline by 20%. Under what they would've done by natural trajectory. -- -- -- It doesn't exist all the people -- have much faith in that is going to get any what what do you see the trajectory. But budding hip people actually -- be better economists and economists because the consensus view if you go -- it's nine was that. If you hit the economy with a big monetary stimulus -- interest rates quantitative easing. And and a big stimulus on the fiscal side with a 10% of GDP deficit that would be a V -- recovery. And the US would bounce back like it did optimist recessions post 1945 the people recognize that this isn't an old new recession. And the real problem is the -- consumer spending of the great day the households accumulated over the last ten or fifteen years. And I think that debt makes it easy to see that there would be a great balance at any point soon it's a very slow process. Paying down that debt and it restrains Americans from going out. Going to the shopping malls and -- think the main driver of growth in the glory years before the crash consumption. There's a -- on a national sort of funk isn't that to two meals point. Well I think what's happening is an amazing sense of a bit of Groundhog Day feeling -- and very Friday the price Friday of each month and get these jobs numbers. And then and nothing is fundamentally changing and the most depressing thing is really. What was Enron task kinds book while Barca squad being nice I'm not saying that -- patients when it comes to -- farm just want to be caught trying. And you saw that they named any of the John banned Islamic -- proof of how he's trying to create jobs. You hit it right in front of crumbling bridges have been crumbling ever think he's been in the White House but thought we -- I didn't -- 2012. So he wants to be seen to be trying to create infrastructure jobs but I thought they show and EMI and -- -- -- is not -- -- only to create jobs and cause them any idea about that about -- could be done but it's not happening. A British man I want you to weigh in on this year's show you some numbers about who the American people sort of name and hold responsible for this visit in October. The president has a fifteen point advantage over congressional Republicans on the question of who the public trust how -- I don't monster is an onion ABC Washington Post poll. Has been tied at 40%. Which is a big draw for the -- in terms of pure politics. What does this mean well. That's what the -- the president's in trouble on this it's even if there is a glimmer of hope and some statistical basis for job creation American public gets to make the decision about whether or not we're in recovery and until the American public's income actually changes with it has not changed in ten years. Has not kept pace and has not kept pace with expenses. They -- Napoli the country's on the right track and as that and number goals for their further month to month. The president's numbers gonna drop unless the economy really changes in the public really -- it. The problem is that there's been no politician on the left to the -- a Republican or Democrat that has laid out a vision. That the country believes they can see what the economy will look like in five years or ten years. The country does not believe there's been a politician that said here's where we're going in here's how we're gonna get there until they do that the countries in this great (%expletive) great dissatisfaction so. One of those points is obviously what this that the committee is gonna come up you -- the -- speaker Boehner about that. -- -- -- like about hollow and do you believe they gonna come up with an agreement by the deadline just four points. Problem -- by next Sunday they have to have a plan if that if they're going to get scored by the Congressional Budget Office before the 23. The president needs this committee to fail. Because he's already decided to run against what he calls the Republican congress while he was lecturing in constitutional law he missed that part of the article one the scissors a -- so. The dumped cadets control -- miss manners they're. Holding up a lot of legislation. If he's going to run against a do nothing congress it has to do nothing. Therefore there -- they can go for a big deal which is unlikely they can say. We've got one point two trillion which is what we're required to get -- 120 billion over ten years which -- -- Or they can let the so called sequester happen. Counting on the fact that congress is gonna save come to think about it we don't want to do that -- the automatic cut the automatic cuts have to come from defense but defense defined broadly to include the great. Blob of -- the Department of Homeland Security. This is like -- potentially huge miscalculation by the president because as you poll shows the blame is beginning to shift towards him for the on the performance in the employment market. I think this will be another negative from the point of -- of US financial markets that they don't come up with the deal and if there's even discussion of going to on the sequester route. And I think the president gets hit hardest. If the economy still in the -- twelve months from almost every social fungible -- exit -- -- tonight. It -- majesty's -- and the Jessica around that there wild weather is in power is getting hit. I mean look at what's happening in Greece without and then -- look at what's happening Spain less than Sasha discounted from prime minister -- Is overwhelmingly going to lose to that concept but it brought thank you kind of subprime if it doesn't matter what -- coming from in the ordinance hot -- being blamed volatile. Is that economic crisis -- in the mess we've -- you know over the past week going to affect Americans here at -- Pretty directly because the situation in Europe is not the double -- -- not being confirmed by the -- Head of the European Central Bank is talking about another recession. And US needs the the -- and indeed the European Union generally to be growing well because if American consumers on -- shopping exports of one of them few areas that the US can have to get -- that self. And that is something that the administration has been hoping for -- a -- recession is really bad news. That would and I also think it has a tremendous effect on the American psyche because I think -- -- Americans are today as they feel like they're the victims of a lot of uncontrollable global forces in the world and they don't -- anybody. Is out there sort of in front saying to say here's how we're gonna do this -- time in charge and even President Obama. In his sort of speak. I think reinforces the idea as I can't really do anything about this Republicans are at fault or this is going on internationally I can't do this as opposed to saying listen I got a plan. This is what we're gonna do and this is our -- to go forward so. As the country sees all this going around the world is just another thing publicly who's in charge. You -- -- -- this week of amount from global financial institution had good news that is a film about implicated in American taxpayers the bad news. That failed because it made a bet on European sovereign debt so that if you I don't know -- were connected look at the rubble. I'm saying because they did not make big enough that that's -- area they just add that to -- -- -- -- Steve that and that's on of that. Dangers that still looming ahead.
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