Transcript for Roundtable I: State of the Race
Could change are George will is off today but we're joined by Donna Brazil on the roundtable. Matthew -- Maggie Haberman of political again to former party chairs former Vermont governor Howard Dean for the Democrats former government -- -- Haley Barbour for the Republicans welcome to all of you. And that he -- begin. We view -- setting the stage of where the races. Right now we see pres Obama ahead by about five points nationally right now ahead in all of the battleground states what happened in September. Well I think you know this race if it's a five point race which it roughly is despite of all of the republicans' accusations that the polling is wrong I think this prestigious -- delegated to his credit he basically accepted reality which is what you have to do before you can change reality and and I -- that -- that -- problem has. Is when you look at this the national number is five or six which means all the target states are going to be somewhere around that national number. Although those states Ohio Virginia Florida are an awful with this what I think. The -- what happened in the Romney campaign it's almost I think political malpractice. Is that for the summer and a big part of the convention time they left the Plainfield totally to Barack Obama and -- -- and on the Obama campaign. They allowed them to outspend them in the summer they allowed them did during the conventions to outspend them. And basically set the tone for the final sixty days of this campaign which put them behind after the conventions I don't think -- -- folks expected to be behind. And now they're behind and -- in the prism of which voters view this is negative for permit. I'm governor Barbour -- something else I'm owner put up a chart right here that shows what's happened the polls comes from Nate Silver of the New York Times after that 47%. A -- right here you see it right -- look at how it opens up in that last we can have that was damaging. Well it -- well it -- big -- but the big percentage damaging. -- -- here this campaign is all about process it's about polling it's about. Campaign management it's about everything but the issues it's about everything but Obama's policies and the failures of those policies how does he turn around. Hopefully he -- just stood totally focused on the fact that for most Americans you can -- the difference between the recession and recovery. In fact census department data came out this last month. The average American family -- 2500 dollars of in home. During the Obama recovery -- -- 5800 dollars worth of income during the recession. No wonder they don't think that the that's it. Don sessions over Donovan -- kind of astonishing the National Journal put it is the President Obama defying gravity. Right now -- EC unemployment above 8% income is going down -- the president leads by five points billion dollars looking at some of the recent polls and flight 2% of the country believe the country. Isn't better shape. They believe that the next she'll will be better -- despite all of the doom and gloom and a cold towel in the wet water that the Republicans continue to roll with a the modest but slow economic recovery. Most Americans are feeling a little bit -- it's not is not good enough to go home and and right out there. That the next it's -- check -- Obama campaign but it's good enough for the Obama campaign. To believe that they have just that the a slight. -- -- -- -- that in and one -- this working for the Maggie Haberman is it does seem that voters have accepted. Kind of a mediocre economy yes that's right there's this new normal feeling right this is where we are in and that paradigm. The president is doing better I mean the right track wrong track is still under water. But it has improved for the president and so people feel their lives are not great. Iran is also -- -- offering an alternative and I think that's the problem I think we're not hearing enough forward looking presentation. Maggie ever mentions this right track wrong track governor -- someone -- surprising things to me you've seen coming into this year close to 7% of the public felt we were going. In the wrong direction now it's coming down below 60%. In some polls I guess the dailies to question do people really think things are getting better or are they adjusting their views with a countries to conform with a cigarette. I don't -- this is the new normal at all I don't think we ought to accept this -- the normal if you look at Barack Obama's accomplishments are pretty extraordinary really. He took over when this economy was in free -- was the worst economic collapse since the great depression and Mitt Romney's -- and we should go back at the same policies we had before Obama gets credit. For having delivered. Stopping the bleeding and start to get better we just had a revising the the new jobs created -- over 400000 additional jobs. We didn't get picked up in previous statistics we are doing better the American people know it. But the real reason that Mitt Romney probably isn't gonna win this election no matter how well he does and I do think he'll do well is. When you ask the question does this candidate care about people like me there's nearly forty point gap. You can't overcome -- why Reagan beat Carter -- Carter couldn't connect Mitt Romney cannot connect and that's -- the forty. 7% comedy has -- -- as governor Barbour about that right now that is one of the didn't. The stubborn facts the polling in this election so far is that governor Romney's personal favorability simply hasn't moved that much. -- I think that your few notable. But that's of another region while this election -- today not a popularity contest is built from television -- will be a movie star. This is about what are we -- prove the futility of trying to -- stepfather who -- I don't think Ronald Reagan won because he was happier person. Already more because the country was in -- shape. He offered policies to get us out of that and they work you could hire the recovery under Obama. The issue of the apartment that the economy's improved one point 6% -- if you want one they -- it to you before you -- -- -- As the biggest he's done after the recession when Reagan was president the first year for -- economic growth the second year seven and a half percent economic growth. They have -- that we can have a -- economy. Is something that is not being talked about enough. Anywhere except -- to -- -- -- I really interesting thing to me about the racist which I think the natural equilibrium -- this raises about a two point -- and if Mitt -- very much agree with that and Mitt Romney has a good for five days these five or six points -- will dwindle down to about two point race still an advantage for Barack Obama but -- two point race at that point in time. That's when all other environmental factors the unemployment rate being above 8% the wrong track number being what it is and some people's view of their income. All begin to take place in -- but the biggest change has happened in this is Mitt Romney wanted this to be a referendum election. And the problem is it became a referendum not on Barack Obama it became a referendum on him and at some point yes to fix that really -- And and I think the time is right about you know you get three chances in the of course is PPP eight. And that's turn out not to be so good and we'll get a get more into that. The convention speech and everyone knows that that really was in a speech that really. Gave as a bad idea about Mitt Romney. And a third opportunities to come and debate travelers say something about the 1980s because Republicans possibly go back to 1980. As if that some some guideposts for the future. This is a different recession we know that this was a recession that caused the collapse of the housing market the financial sector and -- -- -- is gone take as much longer -- much slower. Though the Republicans have not all foot -- of the country. Anything in terms -- when he wanna take the country how they will grow the economy other than -- back to the same trickle down policies that -- the mess in the first place.
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