I say some in the House, somewhere in the 20s, anything under 20 will be viewed by Democrats as a huge sigh of relief for them. In the Senate, I think it's a little bit more complicated. There are more Republican senators retiring than Democrats and in more divided swingy type states. And so I would say closer to three.
TAPPER: OK, we are getting close to short on time but I do want to ask you a question about the economy for 2010. Your fellow laureate, Joseph Stiglitz has said there's a significant chance the U.S. economy will contract in the second half of 2010. He's calling on the government to prepare a second stimulus. Do you think that's possible?
KRUGMAN: Yes, it's a reasonably high chance. I don't think it's more -- it's less than 50/50 odds, but you know, what we've got right now is a recovery that first of all is not showing up very much in jobs yet. It's being driven by fiscal stimulus which is going to fade out in the second half of next year and by inventory bounce. You know, production was low because companies were running on their inventories. They're stopping doing that so now you've got a bounce in the economy.
But that's also going to run out. So the things we know about are all going to be negative in the second half of next year. Now the financial markets, the last month, the financial markets have gotten really optimistic. You look at things like the term spread on bond rates. They suggest that the financial markets really think there is going to be a much more vigorous recovery. I don't see where it's supposed to come from, so the range is huge here. I would basically go with Joe Stiglitz. I'm really worried about the second half.
TAPPER: OK, I'm going to have to wrap there. The Roundtable continues in the green room on ABCNews.com. You can get political updates all week long by signing up for our newsletter, also on abc.com. Coming up here, "The Sunday Funnies."
TAPPER: And you think -- you think -- you would go farther. I couldn't really get Senator McConnell to say that Republicans should campaign on repealing Obama care as they call it. But you think they should campaign?
DOWD: I think if this bill passes, it's the best thing for the Republican Party in the short run if this bill passes. I think there's no question about the polling on this as consistent. The majority of the country is opposed to it. The majority of the country thinks their health care, their own health care costs will go up. The majority of the country thinks the overall cost of the systems will go up. And the majority thinks their care will get worse.
Now we can argue in Washington or whatever at the Capitol and say we know better than the public does on this or we know what they should get, but the country is decided on this. The country is overwhelmingly decided on this. And Congress has proceeded to go against what the public wants and pass a bill. And whether it is good in parts, bad in parts, whatever it happens to be, the country doesn't want it. And if it passes in January and they don't sell it, which I don't think they're going to do, because they have to figure out it's negative in its entirety, they're going to go on to jobs but it's going to be an albatross on almost every Democrat in a swing district in the country.