In years with eight months or more of recession, the average decline in individual giving was 2.4 percent.
The online survey found that 46 percent of people whose own situation had deteriorated over the past year still planned to donate this season.
"If an organization is providing a worthwhile service, individuals [who] have a passion for that mission will continue to give," says Jim Yuker, head of Giving USA's editorial review board.
Organizations that serve the needy tend to see contributions jump during the most difficult times, research shows. The online consumers said they plan to donate most during the holidays to human service groups like food banks and homeless shelters, faith-based organizations, and health-related services.
Last year, as the economy deteriorated, The Salvation Army's income from its holiday kettles (a small portion of overall donations) was a record $118 million. When it polled local Salvation Army groups last summer on overall donations, giving was mostly "on par," neither up nor down, says Melissa Temme, national communications director. With the economic volatility this fall, "we don't really know what to expect in the holiday season."
This is a situation that just hasn't been seen before, several fundraisers say. Moreover, the prospect for corporate giving is gloomy on several fronts.
Though the sky may not be falling in the charitable world, some nonprofits may not survive or may have to merge with others. The number of charitable groups has exploded in recent years, reaching 1.8 million (apart from religious organizations).
The big charities, however, are counting on loyal donors to stick with them.
"We've been here 125 years, serving through the Great Depression, two world wars, and many recessions," says Ms. Temme. "This is an unusual time, but we're a faith-based organization and feel called by God to carry out our mission, so there's an element of faith there."