U.S. Weighs Thorny Sub Exports to Taiwan

April 23 -- Attention has mostly focused on whether the White House will allow the export of advanced Aegis radars to Taiwan. But the Bush administration could soon approve for Taiwan an equally controversial technology likely to enrage Beijing: diesel-powered submarines.

Taiwan for years has requested diesel subs from the United States to counter China's increasingly advanced naval capabilities. And each year Washington, facing Beijing's fierce opposition as well as reluctance from the Navy on exporting diesel subs in general, has turned it down. Foreign governments similarly have been pressured by Beijing not to allow the exports, under threat of punitive trade sanctions.

But government and independent experts say the Navy has recently changed its policy on sub exports, and there are signs the Bush administration may be ready to let Taiwan obtain eight to 10 foreign-designed subs that would be co-produced in the United States. U.S. and Taiwanese military officials meet April 24 in suburban Washington, D.C. to discuss Taiwan's requests. President Bush could make a decision this week, officials say.

Analysts say pressure on the Bush administration to approve advanced arms for Taiwan increased with the recent EP-3E U.S. surveillance plane incident. But they note Bush may not be inclined to approve the most advanced Aegis, leaving the subs as a distinct possibility.

"It looks as if the administration is going to defer a decision on the Aegis destroyers and probably on the PAC-3 [anti-missile] system, but the diesel subs, that's probably the one item that's up in the air at the moment," says defense analyst Ted Galen Carpenter, of the CATO Institute.

Taiwan's Defense Needs Recognized

The Navy gave an indication it favors exporting the subs earlier this month when a confidential review by officers of the U.S. Pacific Fleet concluding Taiwan needs diesel submarines, as well as the Aegis and other equipment, was reported by the New York Times.

The study echoed a Pentagon report to Congress last June on China's military capabilities, which characterized Taiwan's submarine shortcomings as a threat to the island's defense.

"China's numerical superiority in submarines constitutes a threat to the Taiwan Navy," that report said. China could use its sub and ship advantages to blockade the island, unless an outside party intervened on Taiwan's behalf, it said.