Oddball Indicators Favor Bush

ByABC News
November 5, 2000, 3:46 PM

— -- Tired of all the real polls? Check our guide to off-the-wall election predictors like skirt lengths, sports team records and carved pumpkins.

By Michael JamesABCNEWS.comNov. 5 George W. Bush, the Republican presidential candidate, only has a slight edge in the latest polls, but hes top gourd in the battle of the pumpkins. Asked to choose between 500-pound pumpkins carved to look like Bush and his Democratic opponent, Al Gore, at Altenbergs Country Gardens in Wisconsin, 1,285 visitors chose Bush and 911 picked Gore. The Bush pumpkin also beat its Gore counterpart 534-341 in an online ballot at the Wisconsin Rapids Area Convention & Visitors Bureau Web site.

Does it matter? Probably not, so the Gore campaign accepts defeat gracefully.

I dont think Al Gore wants to be the winner in the hollow-headed competition, says Juno Cabrera, a Gore campaign spokesman. I think were glad that were not. Well cede that territory to Gov. Bush.

Weighing Political Myths

With the real polls showing a tight race, the media has taken to considering how skirt lengths, carved pumpkins, coffee cups, sports statistics, Halloween masks and polls of school children might predict the outcome of the presidential race.

Experts in academia and the media agree that many of these offbeat indicators reflect little more than random chance and political superstition. But some concede that a few may have a kernel of truth.

Im not sure that gourds are a very promising metric for public opinion research, says Jonathan Koppell, a political scientist at Yale University. One thing you have to be aware of is the irony factor. People may pick Bush pumpkins because hes amusing, but that might not be the key to a presidential election.

On the other hand, he adds, that may be why Jesse Ventura is the governor of Minnesota. If it gets you votes, it gets you votes.

Bush Campaign Encouraged Not!

For the record, Bush has been getting most of the votes even if at this point they are coming in the form of pumpkin popularity, Halloween mask sales and surveys of second graders.