Gen. George Casey: Iraq Civil War 'Possible,' Troop Reductions Less Likely

 

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Casey: As John [Abizaid] said, it certainly is possible. When you have levels of sectarian violence the way they are, it certainly is possible. That said, I think I know the Iraqis are determined not to go there. And they're determined to prevent that and they're taking, what I would say, were the appropriate actions along with us and their security forces, to ensure that doesn't happen.

Raddatz: Is that the biggest threat right now, civil war?

Casey: A countrywide, a threat of a countrywide civil war, I think that, I would say, that probably is the most significant threat right now.

Raddatz: There are a lot of people who say it's already a civil war now?

Casey: Yeah, I don't buy that. I mean, the levels of sectarian in Baghdad -- sectarian violence in Baghdad are high. There's no question about it. While Baghdad is the center of the country, it's not the country. And if you take a 30-mile radius around Baghdad and draw a circle, 90 percent of the sectarian violence is in that circle. … the rest of the country, it's not there. And so, as you've said, they're all coming to Baghdad. This is where the fight is going to be. And this is where we'll have our success.

Raddatz: Is there already civil war in Baghdad?

Casey: Again, I don't think so.

Raddatz:What is a full-blown civil war? At what point do you say it's a full-blown civil war? Everybody is saying, 'It's not a civil war yet,' but what does it take?

Casey: the definitions of civil war are almost not useful here. But if you want to look at it, it's something that's widespread around the country. It's sustained. It's intense. It's accompanied by the collapse of the government, the collapse of the security forces and we're just not close to that yet.

U.S. Forces Going Back Into Baghdad

Raddatz: You have the Iraqi security forces taking over major parts of Baghdad. Meanwhile, the violence got worse, the sectarian violence got worse. You have to bring the American forces in. What does that say about the Iraqi troops?

Casey: Yeah. It says that we're going to do what it takes to help the Iraqis win here. And the security situation in Baghdad is not what anyone wanted and they needed some more assistance and so we brought it in. The other part of it is, the reason we're able to bring those forces in without increasing the number of brigades that we have here is because we gave parts of the country back to capable Iraqi security forces and brought those other forces back here into Baghdad.

Iraqis and Intelligence Gathering

Raddatz: I heard some people say, 'Look, we wish, we wish the American forces had moved in sooner.' Is that because they don't trust them because of the militias?

Casey: It's really a mixed bag. Some people will tell you all they want to see is Iraqi security forces. Other people will tell you all they want to see is the coalition. And one of our central elements of our whole strategy here is when this struggle here over Baghdad is completed, that the Iraqi security forces emerge as the dominant security force in Baghdad and then Iraq.

The Drawdown of U.S. Troops

Raddatz: You hoped that there would be a drawdown, conditions-based, you've always said that by the end of this year. Do you think that can still happen?

Casey: It could. But it's always been conditions-based. We were moving in that direction. Conditions changed and we adjusted. The important thing is we're going to do what it takes to help the Iraqis win.