Gen. George Casey: Iraq Civil War 'Possible,' Troop Reductions Less Likely

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Aug. 7, 2006

Casey: If it does, if it does, if it does. … We need to be here to help the Iraqis resolve what really is the fundamental conflict in Iraq right now and that is the division of political and economic power among the Iraqis. They're going to do that, they're in the process of doing it. They built this unity government over 18 months. This new government has been 75 days at it. They know where they need to go. And I think you've been around to know, the one thing Iraqis know is they're not going back to 35 years of Saddam Hussein. And so while they're still wrestling through hard issues and they don't really trust each other yet, that's looming behind them. And it's the thing that keeps them moving forward.

Raddatz: I know it's a what if, what if, but do you let them know, 'Look, if this gets really bad, we can't stay here forever.' I mean, do you, I remember you telling Peter Jennings a long time ago that at some point you have to take the training wheels off. At one point do you say, if this really deteriorates, we really can't …

Casey: That's a political judgment, and our job here is to help them be successful, to help them win and that's what we're doing.

Stryker Brigade

Raddatz: What's the idea here with the plan in Baghdad with the Stryker Brigade?

Casey: We've had a Baghdad security plan really going on since March, and we've continued to adapt it as things have changed, but we were not satisfied with the impact that we were having on the levels of sectarian violence. There were a lot of good things happening under the old plan, but we weren't addressing the levels of sectarian kidnappings and murders. And so we, with the Iraqis, worked through a different variation where -- and I won't get into the specifics of it -- but we will focus on the key areas in the city where there is dividing lines between the different groups, go into those areas, clean them out, establish Iraqi security forces, bring in some economic support and basically work with the local leaders so that they are confident in their security forces and we hold that area and make them feel safe in their own neighborhood. Then we'll gradually expand those areas around the country, around the city.

Raddatz: And when you say dividing lines, is it between neighborhoods, is it between Sunni and Shiite, are you separating people are you …

Casey: No, we're not separating people, but there are friction points, and there are neighborhoods where the Sunni and Shiite populations in the city come together. They're mixed neighborhoods and those are the areas where the levels of violence, the sectarian violence, have been the highest. And that's where we're starting. Do those first and then gradually expand out.

Effect of Conflict Between Israel, Hezbollah

Raddatz: The effect of what's happening in Lebanon and Israel on this, do you worry about that?

Casey: We watch it very closely and there's no question that there can be spill over here. There was a relatively small demonstration, 14,000-15,000 people last weekend against it. We've not seen any major impact of that here yet, but we're watching it very carefully.

Raddatz: What happens if that starts expanding? Iran is clearly a concern anyway, right?

Casey: Right. Again hypotheticals and hypotheses, Iran could try to influence what's going on in Lebanon by turning up the heat here. We're watching that closely.

Lessons Learned?

Raddatz: Final sort of thoughts here of how long you've been here, what you've seen, whether you would have done anything differently, whether you would've adjusted things? What's your lesson learned so far?

Casey: It's hard to say. You don't really find out the big mistakes you've made for about two years or so after you've made them because if you knew, you wouldn't do them. It's still a little too fresh, but what I've seen is, is steady progress by the Iraqis and I've learned to have pretty good confidence in their ability to move this thing forward at their own pace and they're a smart group, they're a capable group and again they have this 35 years of living under Saddam Hussein that they know they don't want to go back to. So, they can do this, with our help.