Aug 20, 2009 12:59pm

Awash in Foreclosures

If we were looking for the sea of foreclosures to start drying up, it's not happening yet.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports today that a record 1 in 7.6 homeowners with a mortgage were either late making a payment, or in some stage of foreclosure from April through June. 

Foreclosure numbers have been high — but what's chilling about these latest numbers is that many of those late or not paying at all are homeowners with everyday ordinary PRIME mortgages — those who have "skin in the game," as the saying goes.  Good credit, money down, and they didn't get those super-high, soul-destroying, sub-prime interest rates. 

Now we're talking about people who are losing jobs, or — in smaller numbers, most likely — people whose homes are underwater and who have decided there's no point in paying anymore.  Karen Weaver, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, says they expect that nearly half of all mortgage holders will be underwater by the start of 2011 — that's revised upward from Deutsche Bank's current estimate of 27%.  Unreal. 

As an optimist, I believe that what's gone down will eventually come up.  So unless I had a really cheaply-made shoebox of a house that was waaaay overvalued when I bought it (and boy, have I seen some of those!), I like to think I would sit tight, having faith that the market will rebound and prices will, too.  Pessimists, feel free to burst my bubble.   

User Comments

I share your optimism. As Americans we have always held fast to the belief that “Home is where the heart is.” Home ownership is the foundation of our capitalism and regardless of ups and downs our foundation will stand. It may take some hits but we will learn, adjust and move on…as home owners and investors. You can take that to heart and to the bank.

Posted by: Ray | August 20, 2009, 1:15 pm 1:15 pm

After 8 years of fog, we have great vision in the Oval Office. The market will bounce back and grow!

Posted by: Lesley | August 20, 2009, 1:26 pm 1:26 pm

Well, this is probably pedestrian, if not banal, but it seems to me that there are some “it depends” qualifiers here. First, of course, is how much one can afford to lose whatever risk capital is necessary to invest in those foreclosures. The old school rule of thumb is that, if you can’t afford to lose it, you can’t afford an investment of this sort. That means that it probably isn’t smart to divert retirement funds, for instance, into this kind of investment.
A second consideration is the character of the local real estate market — both at the metropolitan level and the neighborhood level — before the crash. Some areas may have been on life support before the crash and may not, as a result of that shock, ever come back enough to permit recouping of initial investment, much less generating a profit.
Another is that it’s probably good to avoid even foreclosures in areas that had experienced wild and sharp speculation-driven price increases in the few years before the collapse, as those markets were so over-inflated that it’s likely to take them a very long time to recover enough to generate seller-friendly markets.
So those are my common-sense caveats. That said, though, I’ve been eyeing some investment properties myself, though less focused on foreclosures.

Posted by: Adolph Reed | August 20, 2009, 1:29 pm 1:29 pm

Vicki: I,too, am an optimist. Those who are underwater should sit tight, keep paying if at all possible and wait for the rebound. Just as new housing is on a slight rise so, too, will existing housing in the not too distant furure.

Posted by: Sloman | August 20, 2009, 2:30 pm 2:30 pm

As a Realtor, it is in my best interest to be optimistic. Frankly, there are enough signs that the market is stablizing, which it muut do before it starts rebounding. The glut of bank owned properties being sold (and keeping the market low) has to continue and get out of hte way before ‘real’ properties owned by ‘real’ people can take advantage of the bounce back. All the reporting needs to continue to be positive so Mr. and MRs. Everyday start to believe. I look for hte market to make very positive strides after the beginning of the year.. The sound you now hear is us hitting bottom. Better days are ahead!
Anybody wanna buy a house?

Posted by: Lou Brown | August 20, 2009, 4:53 pm 4:53 pm

Yes, prices will rebound. But in some areas (many areas), it will take years and years. I remember looking at a house in about 1999 in the Santa Barbara area and lamenting to realtor how fast prices had risen in the past three years. He said, yes, but remember we are just getting back to 1989 prices now. There had been another one of those frenzied run-ups in the late 80s where people paid way too much for homes and it led to a collapse. As Bob Brinker notes, housing prices fell in 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, and 1995. That was five straight years of decline. And that bubble was nowhere as insane as the one that happened in 2006. So, get ready for a long wait for prices to recover in most areas. It is not clear that they have even bottomed everywhere yet. I heard that in Palmdale and Lancaster, houses that were at $400k in 2006 are now at $100k. That is a 75% decline. Those have probably bottomed now, but they will be years or even decades before they get back to where they were.
The one thing that could bring prices back sooner is another bubble. The people of this country seem stupid enough to keep doing bubbles over and over again. They never seem to learn the lessons of bubbles, going all the way back to tulip bulb mania in 16th century Holland.
By causing these bubbles, they also interfere with a healthy gradual appreciation process that would allow us working peons to step up in housing every 10 years or so. Some of us still buy houses to live in and take a whole life view of where we want to be in 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 years.
Wake up, bubble people!

Posted by: Proud Native American and Angry Independent Voter | August 20, 2009, 5:40 pm 5:40 pm

Vicki
I too am an optimist and believe in the American dream. We need to sit tight, wait out the storm, and there will be a bright light on the horizon.

Posted by: EDIE BROWN | August 20, 2009, 10:40 pm 10:40 pm

It doesn’t matter what prices are if you can’t keep up with the mortgage. If the paycheck gets bigger by 3%/yr and the bills increase by 10%/yr, what do you do? Eat less? spend less on what?? defer costly maintenance like a roof?
Some families may be able to depress their standard of living, but there are those who will have babies, need a new vehicle, get sick, loose a job, or just get too old to work. How do they keep the roof over their heads.
I got my mortgage while Clinton was still in office, and had no idea America could elect the clowns who got us here (and into a money sapping war). I’d really like to continue living under my own roof, but it gets harder as I approach 70.

Posted by: soularddave | August 21, 2009, 1:08 am 1:08 am

As an appraiser, I am afraid a quick housing bounce back is far from realistic. As foreclosures increase, banks liquidate by listing their REOs at give away prices to attract cash investors. In the process, surrounding houses lose value quickly. Normal arms-length sales are disappearing. Appraisal value falling. REO sales still dominate the market. Had the government really mandated lenders modify loans or allow bankruptcy courts to make changes the damage would have been less. It is now too late. Recovery will take a long time.

Posted by: Julia | August 22, 2009, 12:32 am 12:32 am

Doesn’t it seem strange that THE ONLY ADVICE government officials give homeowners having mortgage payment difficulties is to tell them to go back to their lender, or through a HUD/FHA Counselor (and then back to the lender) to obtain Home Loan Modification help?
Let’s investigate this for just a moment.
During the home sales boom cycle the lenders became VERY GREEDY. As the opportunity for profits went up, the ethics/legality/morality of the loans they made went down. Later in this process loans were even being made to persons with no jobs and little, or no income at all!
Oh, and where was the government during the loan feeding frenzy? They turned their heads and DID NOTHING!
The reports from borrowers who have completed Home Loan Modifications using these government recommended processes have been streaming in lately. VIRTUALLY ALL OF THESE REPORTS CONCLUDE THAT THE LENDER HAS GIVEN THE BORROWER VERY LITTLE, OR NO HELP AT ALL!!!
But, the government continues to tell borrowers that its assistance and the help of the lender is the best help available! WONDER WHY? IT’S THE MONEY!
Using this same logic, the best way to prepare your income tax and maximize your deductions is to go to the IRS for help!! Why do so many people (even the government officials we are speaking about) hire help to prepare their taxes? SINCE WHEN HAS FREE HELP EVER BEEN THE BEST HELP AVAILABLE?
So, what does the AVERAGE OUTCOME of a Home Loan Modification THAT YOU ACTUALLY PAY FOR really look like?
The firm I work for has averaged monthly mortgage payments reductions from between 20 – 50% for up to 5 years and the conversion of their existing loan to fixed interest rates in the 4 – 5% range for the full balance of the term of the mortgage! These averages come from over 200 completed resolutions!
Our firm is NOT ATTORNEY-BASED, unless paying higher fees is important to you, but does have substantial knowledge about specific legal issues. Our firm has reasonable performance guarantees, a 100% Money Back Guarantee and reasonable program fees (well under $2,500).
So, let’s do the math. Say you are a homeowner who has an existing 6.75% fixed rate 30 year mortgage of $200k, that has a payment with interest of $1,298. Using the average results shown above, your new payment at only a 30% modification is $909 for up to 5 years and you will save well over $80,000 in interest over the life of the note!! NOW THAT’S A MORTGAGE MODIFICATION WORTH THE FEES, DON’T YOU THINK??
Ok, so you don’t plan on staying in the house much over 3 years – using these same numbers you will save over $14,000 in monthly payments alone in that time!! IS THAT A MODIFICATION WORTH THE FEES?
The answer is simple folks – THE LENDER AND THE GOVERNMENT THAT REPRESENTS THEM DOESN’T WANT TO GIVE THE MONEY BACK!

Posted by: Steven Lutman | August 30, 2009, 8:29 pm 8:29 pm

Don’t know if this will go anywhere. I’ve been working with Chase Mortgage now since May 28, 2009 for a remodification and like all the other large banking institutions, they have denied my applicaiton 3 times now for an imcomplete application. ALL of the information has been provided to them each time, but is not getting to the underwriter. I’ve sent them for the 4th time my information and this will be the last time!

Posted by: Debbie | October 1, 2009, 10:59 am 10:59 am

The sad part of all this is the Government had billions to bailout the banks that were part of the problem but nothing for the people

Posted by: mike | December 15, 2009, 4:01 pm 4:01 pm

B.O.A. $321,006.63 ARM 8.75% Payment $2555.20
B.O.A. $$80,384.80 ARM 9.75% Balloon Payment $697.63
Over the past 12 months my fiance and myself have had made numerous attempts to negotiate a more reasonable interest rate that
would offer us a monthly payment we can afford. Our loan originated with Countrywide Home Loans who I then learned was absorbed by Bank of America. Approximately 12 months ago my compensation had been reduced at my company at which I held an executive position. I then contacted Bank of America and was told to submit my financial information for review along with a hardship letter etc. I waited, waited, called, and waited. Six months later, I endured a heart attack at the age of 30 , which was a shock due to my working in the health industry and overall level of physical health. I was instructed to lead a much less stressful day to day life and decided that my health was not worth any dollar amount. I have since started an automotive sales and repair business which has shown a positive cash flow and ability to afford reasonable carrying cost for our family’s home.
After learning of my condition, I intensely pursued help from Bank of America even providing medical records and hospital bills in hope that perhaps they would at the very least offer an interest rate that would allow our monthly mortgage payment to be tolerable. The homes in our neighborhood are selling for half of their original purchase price and sometimes even less. Our two mortgages are at an extremely high interest rate making it nearly impossible to afford. I understand accountability on my part in engaging in this type of loan but my back is against a wall and common sense tells me that if I were a financial institution collecting 5% on $400,000 dollars instead of aprrox 9% it is much better than a short sale or even worse a foreclosure. Everyone wins in the situation.
I have made numerous attempts, spent numerous hours, only to be transferred from one abusive representative to the next, told to call back, told a negotiator would call me, told to submit my paperwork 6 or 7 times, told after the 90-120 day period of review that they dont have or lost my information, told to pay the approx 40k dollars we are behind before anything can be done, been given extensions of supervisors that their phone system “doesn’t allow them to accept incoming calls”, I have been told that I no longer qualify for the “making home affordable” program because I didn’t make my trail payments…TRIAL PAYMENTS? I would have been happy to have made trial payments had I been made aware. Now I am at step 1 after initiating this almost 12 months ago. I have a medical condition and all I can think to myself is “Will we be living here?. “Will someone help us so my family has a home?” . “Can A huge corporation be permitted to treat people the way they do even after receiving TARP bailout money which was provided largely in part by their account holders?”
I have saved every document, every representatives name and extension, printout from the BOA website indicating the SEVEN submitted documents on their “WORKOUT INFORMATION Documents received” page. I HAVE THE PRINTOUT!!! How can they lose my information so many times and on the other hand post “document received” that consists of tax return/form, fax cover sheet, letter of explanation, pay stub, check/receipt, other U/W Docs other. My mind is boggled. Is this just a show to “APPEAR” as if the company is doing something? We need help!!!
The intention of this letter is to reach out to anyone that can help, can offer us options other than resubmitting the same paperwork, other than “you look good for this modification program” only to call and follow up and learn that the rep you are speaking to currently has no knowledge of what you were told the last phonecall. If you call their “home retention” department 5 times you will learn that you will recieve 5 different conflicting updates, possible modifications, or no knowledge that any loan you have is under review. Its shameful how business is being conducted and the continuance of this behavior. I have searched far and wide only to discover I am not the only one…, ABC news, CNN, email blogs, and stories about Bank of America and their utter lack of assistance to these homeowners such as myself. They are rated the absolute least and worst as far as number of loans modified. So had I remained with Countrywide would I have the modification? I didn’t engage in a mortgage with BOA but I am subjected to horrible business practices and empty promises.
I am begging someone to do something..anything to review our account and do the right thing. I have jumped through the hoops, had hour and a half conversations, faxed, emailed, called, waited, and gotten to the point of being so intensely sad and angry that I can not even explain. I have my health and family to think about. I accept the loan balance..I do, but a balloon mortgage at 9.75% and 8.75% and nothing can be done?? The company even teased me with what the loan payments would be if I were approved for the modification and told me we were perfect candidates. I have the dollar amounts written down and was just waiting for the negotiator to call. The amount we were told was at 4% for 5 years. We were excited and thought maybe, finally they are going to help us. Guess what…no phone call. We called and were told to wait, called again and were told it was in “processing”, called again and was told that they do not have our information. Even after I explained that i have a printout from the website with a checklist of all documents received for the 3rd time. We were then told that now that we are 12 months in the rear, we no longer qualify to the make home affordable program. We initiated the modification when we were current to 1-2 months behind. I then received an apology and resubmit again.
If this letter reaches anyone that has a soul, anyone that can make a difference. anyone that cares, I beg of you..PLEASE HELP US.

Posted by: Michael DeGeorge | January 1, 2010, 9:22 am 9:22 am

We too, were 1 month behind, our mortgage co was taylor bean and whitaker, they would not take the one month we were behind after the last day it was in default they told us. It kept snowballing , we hired an attorney, tim snyder which I thought was going to help us, he took our money the bank never heard from him at all. in the mean time we kept falling further behind, the attorney said to never call the bank they would do that, we beleived him, now we are 12 months behind, a fed ex letter came and so i told my husband he needed to call, he did the bank said thatwe were scammed and had to pay 8000 dollars to keep our hom,.PLEASE HELP US. What should we do from here?

Posted by: J B | February 9, 2010, 1:38 pm 1:38 pm

Coined as payday loans, check cashing, payroll advance loans or deferred deposit loans, cash advance loans are high interest loans that can easily be obtained in just a short period.

Posted by: cash advance loans | February 23, 2010, 9:39 am 9:39 am

Hello, I have been doing a lot of research in trying to fight and lower my mortgage. In 2007 I took out a loan to make repairs to my home that my grandparents purchased in 1962. Nothing was done to the house, so I made improvements. Everything was fine until my place of employment put me on medical leave of absense do to an injury from work. The loan money was used to pay the loan and to survive the 9 months that I was off. Then I realized I had a loan that was upside down. so thinking I was doing the right thing I tried to fix that loan. I did take out a very small loan to fix this situation. I was told and states in the contract that $4,000.00 was going to go into my account for backup. Nothing went in to my account and the first payment, that was doubled $483 to $963, was to be paid in 2 weeks. I was 2 months behind but I did get caught up and made the payments on time for months. Hours and work changed and my hours were cut down. I applied for a loan mod. for financial hardship and the case was closed but no one told me. I was told I needed to wait 4 weeks before I heard anyting. I than found out the case was closed and new paperwork was sent out again and resubmitted. This paperwork was lost. I than was told to email, was told the file was too big to read. I re-emailed page by page and again told it was too big to read. Once again I faxed in the paperwork, it was the wrong fax number. Again I refaxed the paperwork and finally the got the paperwork. In the mean time, before the paperwork was due, they sent me to an attorney for default for non-payment. Now I am in forclosure. I tried to make a payment and was told they wouldn’t even except the payment. I now get phone calls saying they can help if I pay them $3,500. Now I find out these are scams. My mortgage company says I don’t make enough to qualify for the loan mod. All the research I have done states that If I get or they give me the loan mod. the mortgage company does get an incentive. The incentive amount is $1,000 a month. So if I make my payment and they get the $1,000 then they are making more money this way. Instead they want to force me to sell or just down right take the house. I need all the help I can get. Not a real estate agent wanting to sell my house.

Posted by: Lori | February 25, 2010, 1:32 am 1:32 am

I have read thru the comments..Chase Bank..where to start! My husband & myself have been waiting on a loan modification for a year now. February 10, 2009 we submitted all information they wanted. I have since submitted the information over & over again. Now I’m told that all modifications are on hold. They call monthly, almost harrasingly to make sure we pay that payment but are dragging their feet on their end. We have been in limbo for a year & would like this to come to a conclusion.

Posted by: Lori Howard | February 26, 2010, 10:46 am 10:46 am

I know what you are all saying. We are there as well. However, our mortgage was privately held. My husband has been laid off now for almost a year.
I know many of us are on the verge of losing our homes. It is difficult to work with mortgages companies, but don’t give up. I am finding that as we keep the communication lines open, something will HAVE to happen. Let us not give up hope!

Posted by: Romona | March 1, 2010, 12:48 pm 12:48 pm

We are there! please don’t give up. I know things will work out. We keep the doing the same things…never let the lines of communication close.

Posted by: Romona | March 1, 2010, 12:53 pm 12:53 pm

In 1979 my sister bought a 2 family brick house in Queens ,NY for $89000…..today 6/14/10 ..she is closing on the Sale of the house to new owners …the price..$600,000….you do the Math and figure the Gain….to me there is no better way for the common Man to make a proffit…..you Just have to Be Patient!!!

Posted by: VP | June 14, 2010, 10:16 am 10:16 am

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