2006 Electoral Landscape

A message from David Chalian, ABC News’ Deputy Political Director and co-author of The Note:

We strongly recommend to you this excellent and precise look at the 2006 midterm electoral landscape, courtesy of our colleagues at the Washington Post. It wisely explains why moving from the minority party to the majority party on Capitol Hill will be a tough mountain to climb for Democrats — despite the advantageous political climate the party currently finds itself in.

The key point is that the playing field may simply be too small due to the redistricting process of recent years which continues to create very safe districts for incumbents.

Two central paragraphs from the Post story:

"History dictates a certain modesty about predictions. Early in 1994, few foresaw the size of the Republican landslide-in-the-making. By November, the anti-incumbent mood overwhelmed even well-prepared candidates. If the public mood deteriorates further this year, Republicans could be swamped; if not, the GOP could be adequately equipped to wage trench warfare state by state and district by district and leave Washington’s current balance of power intact."

"At this point, the biggest challenge facing the Democrats is the narrow size of the battlefield. To win control of the House or Senate, Democrats must either capture the overwhelming percentage of genuinely competitive contests or find a way to put more races ‘in play’ than is the case now."