Scientists in Europe Relieved…For Now
EmailThe avian flu has not spread to Europe by the millions of migratory birds who have recently returned from Africa and other southern points. But some scientists say the autumn migration may pose a bigger threat.
The spring migration may have ended without a major outbreak, but it is the birds coming from the Arctic in August and September that could be more dangerous. There are two reasons why some scientists believe the fall is much more worrisome, according to Simon Delany, of Wetlands International. One, the disease is believed to thrive much better in cold weather, and the birds returning in the fall will be coming from the north. Two, young birds are more susceptible to the disease, and many migratory birds will be returning to Europe in the fall with their young offspring in tow.
There is yet to be a major avian flu outbreak amongst birds in Europe. So far, the biggest outbreak has occurred in Northern Germany when dozens of swans died from the disease in February. Many European nations are relaxing their restrictions on poultry, moving some back outdoors, now that the spring migration is over, but concerns may rise again this fall.
For now, however, people are breathing a sigh of relief.
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Who are these people, the fortune tellers. It’s the same with the high paying hurricane forecasters. They’re paid big money to sit around and guess at the weather etc…. Look at the monstrous exposure in the news media, as the world trembled, not to mention the major cost factor with the panic news.
Posted by: Frank | May 11, 2006, 10:59 am 10:59 am
Non sequitur the facts contained within this article seem to be uncoordinated. Based on information provided by the United States CDC, it is my conclusion that approximately 25% of the area of the continent of Africa has confirmed cases of HN51 in both wild birds and domestic poultry, while it would appear that the continents of Asia and Europe combined have a full 90+% of confirmed cases of HN51, based on area, in both wild birds and domestic poultry. Indeed one may have to look rather intently at the information to find a country in Europe or Asia that has not been affected by HN51. My point is simply this: If you are going to obtain statistics from birds migrating from a continent that has, as of yet, to be largely affected by HN51 you will obviously have results that reflect this observation. I can understand the desire to “downplay” the issue, since it is at this point a highly speculative matter and one who may be reporting on the issue may possibly be under a certain amount of pressure to avoid causing a “state of panic” among those who are less informed and possibly quite concerned. The simple question I would have would be this: What would be the conclusion of an article which addresses the birds that are migrating from Europe and with even more relevance the birds that are migrating from Asia (which I deduce is the statistical epicenter of this influenza outbreak)? If you want to find something that is moving, you should start your search where that thing was last known to be, not thousands, upon thousands of miles away, where you know it has not, as yet, been seen. In this case, there are cases of HN51 in Africa, but not nearly, by any stretch of the imagination as many as there have been in Europe and Asia. Additionally, HN51 is already in Europe- so the uninfected birds migrating to Europe from Africa may not be, uninfected, for long.
Of course there are very few sick birds coming from Africa, they aren’t there yet, at least in large numbers. They are all in Asia and Europe.
Thank you for allowing me to comment on your article. I feel that I can appreciate the immense responsibility that the author has on their shoulders to report on this matter responsibly. With all due respect and my best regards.
Posted by: John | May 12, 2006, 1:43 pm 1:43 pm