Will Republicans retain (or Democrats regain) control?

Our Political Unit’s Mark Halperin, David Chalian and Teddy Davis blog with the 2006 elections just five months away:

Despite the President’s low poll numbers, the Iraq war, the public’s dissatisfaction with Congress, and some high-profile rifts within the majority party (Harriet Miers, Dubai ports, immigration, spending), it’s not at all certain that Democrats can regain control of either the House or the Senate in the November election. But their chances for one or both look better than they did just a month ago.

Since Hurricane Katrina roared assure nine months ago in conjunction with the continued drumbeat of mostly-bad news out of Iraq, the Republican Party basically has had just two outright winning news cycles: One was named Roberts, the other Alito.

Still, to gain the six seats necessary to win control of the Senate, the Democrats need a near-perfect run of all the targeted vulnerable Republican seats while holding onto all of their own vulnerable seats — no easy feat, that. In the House (where Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats to gain control), the districts have been drawn in such a safe way that protection may be provided for many Republicans even in what is a very rough political environment for them.

In addition, Republicans also point to far fewer retirements on their side this year than was the case in 1994 for Democrats when the out-of-power party took control of Congress. There are also very few seats currently held by Republicans up for grabs in places in which John Kerry beat George Bush — so-called Blue districts or states.

Also potentially working to Republican advantage: more polarization in the electorate bringing more ideological voters to the polls, a strong GOP grassroots and turnout operation, and the polling that indicates Democrats are not seen in a much better light and lack an agenda.

But we are beginning to see take shape an expanded playing field for Democrats where Republican incumbents once considered safe are facing some tougher (albeit winnable) fights than expected largely due to the national political mood. President Bush’s recent fundraiser in Virginia Beach, VA for now-worried Rep. Thelma Drake (R-VA) — a district the President carried with 58 percent of the vote in 2004 — serves as an illustration of the changed landscape.

It’s obviously early yet, and much can happen over the next 160 days, but at this point we do not yet see the Democrats putting enough of these races in play to say that a shift in control in either chamber is likely. It is likely, however, that Democrats will make gains in each chamber — consistent with an overall historical trend for the out-of-power party in the midterm election during the second term of the in-power President’s administration.