How Castro and Ernesto are alike

Miami-based correspondent Jeffrey Kofman blogs: The 8 pm forecast shows that Ernesto has become very disorganized while in Cuba. Just like Fidel it is losing strength and it’s not clear that it can rally. The forecasters are now saying it will be — at best — a low-end Category 1 hurricane but even more likely a very wet tropical storm with winds of 50-75 mph. But that is not reason to dismiss this as a non-story. It can still do significant water damage and it could still surprise and regain strength. Remember that Katrina was just a tropical storm before it made landfall as a nasty Cat 1 in Miami. The storm is also expected to move faster than anticipated and should be in the Miami area by Tuesday afternoon or evening. Not clear what happens later in the week, but as it heads to the Carolinas it will need to be watched closely for flooding potential and/or restrengthening if it goes over the Atlantic.