Moqtada al-Sadr Reappears

Correspondent Terry McCarthy blogs from Baghdad:

Moqtada al-Sadr reappeared on the Iraqi political scene today like an exploding fireball, with a strong anti-American speech that delighted his supporters who had not seen him in public for seven months — the past four of which US intelligence thinks he spent in Iran. Sadr, 33, is the most radical of the Shiite political figures associated with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government, but in recent weeks he has begun to distance himself from Maliki, sensing the government is being weakened by the continuing demands for political reconciliation from the US — and Maliki’s inability to deliver. In April, Sadr withdrew his six ministers from Maliki’s cabinet, and today he criticized the government for not being able to deliver basic services and security to the Iraqi people.

Underneath the rhetoric lay a calculated power play: Sadr thinks the timing is right to assert his power base in Iraq. In addition to Maliki’s weakness, Sadr’s main political rival, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, has just been diagnosed with lung cancer. And next Monday the US will finally sit down with Iran for talks on Iraq — Sadr receives considerable backing from Iran. Sadr is looking to the long term. Whereas in 2004 he ordered his men to confront US troops — provoking two street battles which proved very costly for Sadr’s men, now Sadr seems prepared to wait out the US surge, confident that a US withdrawal will come sooner or later. When that happens, he is getting ready to stake his claim to power. Many Iraqis, Sunnis and Shiites, fear Sadr’s power, as his militia has been repeatedly linked to death squads in Baghdad.