Sep 28, 2007 5:05pm

Iowa: ‘The Whole Shebang’ for Obama?

ABC News’ Sunlen Miller reports: A certain level of taboo language has been swirling around in recent days about Sen. Obama’s outlook in Iowa.

In comments reported in The New Republic, campaign manager David Plouffe was heard exclaiming, "Iowa — that’s the whole shebang!" Michael Crowley reports that after a pause Plouffe followed up, "I guess I’m not supposed to say that. … But Iowa is very important."

Plouffe’s comments come on the heels of a dust up of press following Michelle Obama’s assertion in Iowa Wednesday that, "If Barack doesn’t win Iowa, it’s just a dream. If we win Iowa, then we can move to the world as it should be."

Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor responded, “Every campaign understands the importance of doing well in Iowa. Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack talked about helping Hillary Clinton win Iowa. Edwards strategist Joe Trippi said that if Sen. Edwards doesn’t win Iowa it will severely diminish his chances. … This is a campaign that’s built for the long haul.”

Obama has mostly ranked third in polls, placing him behind Sen. Hillary Clinton and former Sen. John Edwards. But in an e-mail to supporters last weekend, Plouffe argued that the polls consistently under represent in Iowa and elsewhere the greatest of Obama’s support.

User Comments

As a much older woman, I believe the polls are not sampling corectly. They are still utilizing primarily land line phones and identified caucus participants or primary voters. The communication experience is now really rocket science. It has exploded so quickly and is not being sampled. I am 68 and I communicate primarily via a Treo 700p smart phone. When i communicate with my 18 year old grandson I text him. I do all of my banking and news on line. There is a major shift since 2004–an exponential shift. It is not being sampled. Obama’s campaign would not be raising this much money and number of supporters if it were not extremely viable. I also remember vividly “Dewey Wins”.

Posted by: SFT | September 28, 2007, 9:23 pm 9:23 pm

I don’t think that today’s polls are reliable. Pollsters can only call landlines, and the respondents have to be home in the evenings. They are usually used if they have a history of voting.
Pollsters are not disclosing the extent to which what they do is no longer very scientific. A likely voter is a person who, amongst other things, has voted before. What about first-time voters, cell phone-only users and people who are never home in the early evening?
Additionally, how much credibility can you give to polls such as those by Rasmussen that have margins of error of up to five percentage points either way?
Polls are a lazy reporter’s shortcut. They do not seem to reflect what one sees on the ground. How do you explain Obama raising so much money and getting such large crowds and being so behind in the polls?
To be sure, crowds do not equal votes, but this has been going on for MONTHS now, and most of Obama’s rallies cost about $25 per ticket for non students. And the money means that people are actually willing to make a political commitment. A donation is not something you take lightly.
Young people are often dismissed by pollsters because they are unreliable shows on election day. There is some merit to that, but past experience does not necessarily indicate future behaviour. If Obama’s campaign can mobilize its ground troops to the polls, he will win.

Posted by: Lioness | September 28, 2007, 10:08 pm 10:08 pm

Don’t know who these pollsters are polling, I’m very politically active and have several friends who are but none of us has ever been polled. I’m very much on the ground and the feedback I’m getting clearly contradicts the polls, so who’s telling the truth? Time will Tell.

Posted by: Enoch Obeto | September 28, 2007, 10:51 pm 10:51 pm

If Bill Clinton is challenging Sen. Obama’s experience then it would logically follow that he is also challenging Sen. Clinton’s experience.
What is Sen. Clinton’s experience? Please ask Bill Clinton to detail, item by item, what Sen. Clinton’s experience is.
When asked in the last debate what her foreign policy experience was, Sen. Clinton responded by saying when you’re married to the president you’re privy to information about this and that. When did pillow talk become foreign policy experience?
Bill Clinton cannot honestly challenge Sen. Obama’s experience without also calling attention to Sen. Clinton’s lack of experience.
The media has got to start doing their job. Lets be clear here, Bill Clinton is not running for president – Sen. Clinton is running for president. Lets examine HER experience.

Posted by: Tammy, Denton, Maryland | September 29, 2007, 5:42 am 5:42 am

The reporter for Political Radar could probably borrow from the title of this forum to examine “what is REALLY going on BELOW the Political Radar” and use your title in creative ways to write a column on all the campaigns. To date, the polls do not reflect the true picture on the ground. Also some in the main Stream Media, appear to be manipulating the general public to think in conventional way. Clearly, this campaign is not the conventional campaign in terms of timing, grassroot organization, collecting contributions, and has involved many first time voters. Why should we take the Conventional polls for granted? I doubt that any body relying on past campaigns for predictions is way off the mark. Please separate your self from the usual Washington group-thinking. I think that the 24,000 people in New York City this week are the main reason that President Bill Clinton is trying to attack Senator Obama onexperience – their campaign is trying to create inevitability but they are clearly scared. He probably knows that how reports way before the election can be wrong in predicting the eventual nominee, after all he is the Come-back Kid. What about writing off Senator McCain a few months ago? I know that each one has one vote and that no election is won until the votes are cast and a months in politics are a clearly a life time away. I believe that when the dust settles on this campaign, many will be asking why the missed the Story of ne 2008 Surprise Come-back Kid!

Posted by: globalcitizenlinda | September 29, 2007, 7:12 am 7:12 am

Based on their performance during the most recent election cycle, there are a number of things that I can say about embers of the Main Stream Media namely: (i) reporters for the main part are very far removed from the ordinary people that they cannot accurately represent the people on the ground; (ii) there is a general sense of laziness and desire to please the Washington establishment and huge corporation that most are afraid of not reporting different opinions – a case of “group-think” ; (iii)most are wishing for fight between Mrs. Clinton and Guliani to such an extent that they are trying to push these two candidates on both sides; (iv) the desire to coy-up to what is familiar (here read G.W. B in 2000) led the media machine push the dumber candidate and to attack Gore as too stiff as though the president’s role is to be entertainer-in-chief; (v) reporter were collaborators in leading us into the Iraq was and are as guilty as any of the major decision makers. I suggest that some the journalism schools should recall their diplomas because of the shame that has been placed on them. Otherwise a creative and serious reporter could take time to examine the thing that most are not talking about namely: What if all the conventional thinking, polling, and reporting is wrong, what would be the surprises? What if predictions that Hilary and Guilliani are the front runners are not correct

Posted by: globalcitizenlinda | September 29, 2007, 7:14 am 7:14 am

Iowa is important to ALL candidates. Although Obama will still WIN Iowa, It is NOT a do or die Win for Obama. The media (initially) and his camp have always said that Edwards is formidable there (ONLY in IOWA) and Obama or Clinton could be second.
Seems Obamas plan has always been to engage in a long battle though FEB 5th & beyond. Meaning he could be second in IOWA, 1st in NH, 1st in SC, 1st in Nevada, 1st in CA etc..
The Media is now just trying to find something, or make up some scenario to say he is losing.
But if your reading this, then you already know this to be true as you are an intelligent thinker who READS. Obama is doing the RIGHT thing by having unprecedented ground staff to get to those NON-READING let the media tell me what to think in a 2 second sound bite folks in America. Obama 08!

Posted by: Dave, Cheverly, MD | September 29, 2007, 9:33 am 9:33 am

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